Cheeznado Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 if the cutoff begins pretty far west, at some point we'll be getting worried about too much rain . I know about everywhere could use it, but this could seriously be too much rain in Ala, GA and the TENN valley, and southern Apps. The models are sometimes too quick to move out ULL's as well. This one has a great tap to the Gulf , perfectly positioned. Given how low Lake Lanier is right now too much for a few will be good for most. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 if the cutoff begins pretty far west, at some point we'll be getting worried about too much rain . I know about everywhere could use it, but this could seriously be too much rain in Ala, GA and the TENN valley, and southern Apps. The models are sometimes too quick to move out ULL's as well. This one has a great tap to the Gulf , perfectly positioned. The more I read these posts the more convinced I am that some evil force has taken Robert away and replaced with an evil clone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The more I read these posts the more convinced I am that some evil force has taken Robert away and replaced with an evil clone lol. oh now I'm all for the rain! I'm just saying that over 4" in 2 days widespread is enough for flash flooding, possibly. I also think the models continue to under-do the amounts in this situation, so the east side of circulation is in for a lot of rain, which is a good thing. At first. If the system doesn't move out within 2 days, as sometimes they don't, thats the point to get concerned. Plenty of time to watch it though, but I've always been all for the rain, believe me. And looking down the line, i see many more opportunities to hit well above normal rainfall over the next month in the Southeast and Tenn. Valley. It's a wet pattern. Esp. around TN/KY./Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Coming into sight on the RUC now. Looks almost identical to GGEM a few days ago, with the longwave sharpening up right along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Thanks for the great disco this afternoon folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 i enjoy trying to watch this things as they form.....have no formal training but can SEE things, wondering if right now i am seeing a ridge developing in the west and a trough digging sse moving into montana? it sure looks like 2 high pressure areas on already on the east coast and a new one forming now in the west.....doesnt 2 highs with a trough between them set up a good cold air flow from the north hitting a good moisture flow from the south? cold air pumping south to the east of the western high and moist air pumping north from the west side of the SE high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 GSP "AS OF 225 PM FRI...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLITINTO TWO MAIN CAMPS...A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AMONG THE NCEPPRODUCED GUIDANCE...AND A MORE SRN AND SLOWER CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONAMONG THE CANADIAN/ECM CLUSTER. THE CURRENTLY PREFERRED SOLUTION WILL BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CAMPS...WITH THE SLOWERINTERNATIONAL MODEL CLUSTER NOW GETTING SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT THANPREVIOUSLY GIVEN THE CONSENSUS HIGH AMPLICATION OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. THIS MAKES FOR AN EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON ALL ELEMENTS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AHEADOF A SRN STREAM LOW OF INDETERMINATE STRENGTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE.RAPIDLY COOLING PROFILES WITH THE LOW PASSAGE WILL ALLOW PTYPE TOSWITCH OVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SRNAPPALACHIANS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG NW FLOWMOISTURE WOULD THEN SET UP BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TUENIGHT INTO EARLY WED. DRY HIGH PRES WOULD BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THUBEFORE A SWIFT DRY FROPA ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE WRN NC MTNS COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW ON THE TIMING AND ANY AMOUNTS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 The NAM at 51 hours just pinched off a closed contour at 500mb in southern AR/Northern LA. Extreme moisture transport from the GoM right into AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Great disco for the past 48hrs guys!! Enjoying you guys breaking this storm down by each run. Looking forward to big rains and watching the snow on the webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Looks like a forecasting headache for those folks at KTRI. Those types of patterns are somewhat infamous in busting either direction here. Right now, it appears to me that NE TN might get dryslotted(on the snow portion of the system only) if they low moves just to our west. The really question is the track now that a storm appears to be on all of the models. At this point it looks like a cold rain for the valleys and a decent snow on the mountain tops as many have already mentioned - but that could change. Johnson City and Kingsport have seen their fair share of "surprise snow" from similar systems. KTRI is downlplaying the system at the moment but have rightfully left themselves some wiggle room. I'd put my money on an area from Memphis to Nashville on northeastward. Still too early to tell. As a sidenote, TVA was running a pretty heavy pulse down the river around 11:00AM. Made me think they are clearing some water out of the system just in case - pure speculation on my part but I do watch generation schedules since I fish that watershed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 CPC hazardous weather outlook issued 45min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 The 18Z NAM is showing the most extreme solution yet... Amazing snowstorm in MS and parts of Alabama, deformation band, simply amazing.. I really don't even have the words, just look for yourselves. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2011112518&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=081 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Latest from FFC: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS EVEN THE GFS NOW SHOWS SOME WRAP AROUND POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850 TEMPS GO TO -4C TO -6C DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SURFACE WET BULBS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. NEWEST ECMWF HAS MORE POTENTIAL TUE INTO TUE NIGHT BUT DEPENDS ON LOW DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT. GIVEN ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST ADVERTISE 10 TO 15 POPS FOR NOW AND KEEP AS LIQUID FOR ANOTHER RUN. WITH SOME LESSENING OF DIFFERENCES THIS RUN...WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL AGREEMENT WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS ALLOWING FOR MORE CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST. Keeping the "S" word out for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The 18Z NAM is showing the most extreme solution yet... Amazing snowstorm in MS and parts of Alabama, deformation band, simply amazing.. I really don't even have the words, just look for yourselves. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2011112518&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=081 I'm getting a "Map Unavailable" error. Is it just my end with the error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 as Marietta said a major cutoff, anomalously far south. Incredible if it happens to that degree, and the possibilities are amazing. In that run of the NAM it would have nice deformation snowband around Tupelo stretching to Jackson at times, maybe Memphis and then tucking underneath toward BHM and even further south believe it or not, while its raining north of there. But I think the models are so wrapped up right now they're a little too warm, just my opinon so far. Check out the transfer of northern stream energy into this, and its a question mark just how much cold gets pulled in before it cuts off. The real interesting and utterly fascinating part is how the system evolves into a cold core upper low, even beyond what it draws from the northern stream. I noticed all the models did that. So a cutoff starting at say 546 can grow into a colder one (534- or 540) , can't say that I recall that happening in any other cutoff really. Extremely heavy rains aimed right at the mtns of ne Ga, nw SC and west NC., and pretty long lasting. Plenty of rain ahead of the dry slot for many areas. One of the most fascinating systems I've watched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this change more with a lot of twists and turns. Could this be asignificant, if not major snowstorm for a fairly small geographic area on the nw side(and then under and south of track?) If the models don't change and soon, I think it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 This certainly is a potent storm potential for this time of year. The Euro Ensembles certainly raise an eyebrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I'm getting a "Map Unavailable" error. Is it just my end with the error? I was able to pull it up... here you go 850MB temps: precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Thanks, MP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Boy wish the NAM went to 100 hours. Looks like most of WNC might have 2+ inches of rain and that ULL looked like it was heading due east if not a little southeast. Very interesting run to say the least. Can't wait to see what the GFS has to say. Also of note all of SC gets in at least an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 GFS @39 much further south than 12z run. Also just a tad further west. @45 might be tryin to pinch off @48 closed @51 552 over LA/TX/AK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Long term /Tuesday through Friday Tuesday afternoon and night...a surface wave develops along the southern Appalachians and tracks northeastward along the Blue Ridge. The upper level low should follow the surface wave about 12 hours later. If the upper level low tracks like the European model (ecmwf) suggest...a winter mix of rain/sleet and snow is possible for the area... especially across the mountains. Once the low tracks northeast of the area...wrap-around moisture and cold air will bring 12 to 16 hours of upslope snow showers. Accumulations possible on western slopes and higher elevations with flurries in the valleys and toward the Blue Ridge. Leaning the forecast toward the CMC and European model (ecmwf) based on consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 18z GFS has a cutoff even sooner than the 18z NAM. 558 over Arkansas at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Look at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Next image, look at the size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 548 at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Gonna be some serious rain this run for North Georgia. Edit: Much more rain for the western half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 It doesn't move from hour 66 until 76 (last image so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Much more in line with the NAM just slower. 546DM at 5H over MS. Crawling eastward...Going negative at 93 ULL over AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Hour 90 STILL over the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.