jhamps10 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18Z GFS a lot weaker with the system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 These clipper systems are tricky until 12-24 hours of actually hitting, that being said, the rich should get richer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 IMO, this thing has freezing rain event written all over it for portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Not saying a significant freezing rain event, but definitely looking like some icing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z GFS looks weak with this system. NAM certainly more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjason Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is that for ice storm warning criteria. Trying to understand the .01 in percent thing. New from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yep, even .01" of ice can be nasty. And those probabilities are up there, I hope they are wrong. We don't need this on top of already slick roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjason Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thank you. I happen to lie right within the 95 percent range in south central Illinois. yikes...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS appears to have the next system a little farther south this run if I am seeing this correctly ETA has 1002 L in Arkansas at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is that for ice storm warning criteria. Trying to understand the .01 in percent thing. Looks like that is the probability of one hundredth of an inch of ice. Ice storm warning criteria is 1/4" or greater (at least among the regional offices I'm familiar with). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjason Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice and thank you Beau. New here to the forums. Long time weather fanatic here...lol. Really enjoyed your write up and analysis on the November 30th-December 1st 2006 winter storm in Peoria Beau...very informative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjason Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thanks for the info. I see you write very detailed thoughts on your discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z nam looks more phased through 60hr then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z NAM..more robust looking and more qpf north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yup /\ here we go again.... caution: nam has head a northern bias with this last system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At least this storm looks pretty straight-forward compared to this last one. We basically know the general area of where it will be, but there are some differences on where the frozen sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At least this storm looks pretty straight-forward compared to this last one. We basically know the general area of where it will be, but there are some differences on where the frozen sets up. this looks like a waa snow event. They have done very well here in past years. Even if the layers do warm up, most of the precip is usually done....these are always front loaded (snow) systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Parcel trajectories look to be from the southwestern and western Gulf, which will be open for quite a while with this system, so I don't expect moisture to be a big problem, despite the recent cold intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z NAM..more robust looking and more qpf north and a LOT of that south of I-70 in Indiana appears to be Ice or Sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z NAM drops 4.4" of snow here. IND all snow, but it's close to mixing for a very short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z NAM drops 4.4" of snow here. IND all snow, but it's close to mixing for a very short amount of time. December's going to make a run to being well above average wrt snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 December's going to make a run to being well above average wrt snow. Yeah we're off to a great start for sure...and heading in that direction. Just need another 5" and LAF passes December 2007 in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It is interesting to see the way the models differ with the Pacific cyclone as it comes onshore with the GFS developing a well developed cyclone over MT and sending a weaker upper tropospheric wave into the plains while the NAM has a beefier shortwave into the plains and little development over MT. The retrogression of that east coast low will be prominent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Any chance it could go further north and help us out in Michigan? I'm sure it's pretty evident that I'm quite frustrated with the pattern Michigan has been in pretty much since I moved here a two years ago. What is causing all the storms to either go waaaay up to the north over wisconsin and minnesota or south through the Ohio valley? It seems like there has been a lot of dry air around in Michigan just destroying any storm that tries to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS not even close to the nam...no even close to a phase..zips the southern part east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS not even close to the nam...no even close to a phase..zips the southern part east Cold bias. Look at how it handled last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 anybody know what the EURO has shown for this? it seemed to have last weekend's snow figured out pretty well, with the Canadian models finishing a close 2nd IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Any chance it could go further north and help us out in Michigan? I'm sure it's pretty evident that I'm quite frustrated with the pattern Michigan has been in pretty much since I moved here a two years ago. What is causing all the storms to either go waaaay up to the north over wisconsin and minnesota or south through the Ohio valley? It seems like there has been a lot of dry air around in Michigan just destroying any storm that tries to enter. Not with this kind of blocking. Well i should say the chances are small. Thankfully it has not been to bad down this way the past few winters. You would have loved 07-08 where you are and i thought 08-09 was good up that way as well? Anyways it is gonna be hard for us to get much from anything with this type of block showing up on modeling. Thus hope the models are wrong. Ofcourse something could still slip through but odd's are against it till the blocking is gone or shifted. We'll see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 anybody know what the EURO has shown for this? it seemed to have last weekend's snow figured out pretty well, with the Canadian models finishing a close 2nd IMO. Canadian is showing a further north solution and has been for a while, something to definitely watch as it did very well with this past system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 9z SREF somewhat predictably dry and diffuse, but appears more north and south as well. HPCs 4" track looks pretty reasonable at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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