tamarack Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 So what do you think was more anomalous, New England's snowstorm or Buffalo's Oct 12-13 lake-effect snowstorm? Yes! Seriously (sort of), the widespread nature of this latest event puts it over the top for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 So what do you think was more anomalous, New England's snowstorm or Buffalo's Oct 12-13 lake-effect snowstorm? LOL..New Eng/Mid Atlantic snowstorm..Not even close Buffalo can get LES every month of the yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 That would be great, wonder if BDL set theirs, Snowman21? For BDL, Jan 1-Dec 31 snow totals... 1. 2011... 89.1 2. 1967... 88.2 3. 1978... 83.0 4. 1994... 80.2 5. 1961... 78.9 6. 1956... 78.4 7. 1969... 75.4 8. 1996... 72.8 9. 1966... 68.1 10.1993... 62.1 The 20.3 inches for the Halloween storm puts BDL over the top for calendar year snowfall should it stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 LOL..New Eng/Mid Atlantic snowstorm..Not even close Buffalo can get LES every month of the yr well take a look: The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of 2" or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7thgreatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 well take a look: The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of 2" or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7thgreatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo! This storm obliterated every snowfall record in October from NE PA to SE Maine.. in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 This storm obliterated every snowfall record in October from NE PA to SE Maine.. in history nor'easters are more widespread by their very nature...that doesn't mean a localized lake-effect snow event is less anomalous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 First time ever i have seen thundersnow in October!!! And unfortunately probably the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 For BDL, Jan 1-Dec 31 snow totals... 1. 2011... 89.1 2. 1967... 88.2 3. 1978... 83.0 4. 1994... 80.2 5. 1961... 78.9 6. 1956... 78.4 7. 1969... 75.4 8. 1996... 72.8 9. 1966... 68.1 10.1993... 62.1 The 20.3 inches for the Halloween storm puts BDL over the top for calendar year snowfall should it stand. That is just Epic. I have a slideshow of all 2011 weather pics I took or collected, just insane weather year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 So what do you think was more anomalous, New England's snowstorm or Buffalo's Oct 12-13 lake-effect snowstorm? A localized event versus a Billion dollar regional disaster in Oct. weather wise both very odd but synoptically NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 A localized event versus a Billion dollar regional disaster in Oct. weather wise both very odd but synoptically NE. Yeah I agree... I'll pick the freak synoptic scale storm than the freak mesoscale event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For BDL, Jan 1-Dec 31 snow totals... 1. 2011... 89.1 2. 1967... 88.2 3. 1978... 83.0 4. 1994... 80.2 5. 1961... 78.9 6. 1956... 78.4 7. 1969... 75.4 8. 1996... 72.8 9. 1966... 68.1 10.1993... 62.1 The 20.3 inches for the Halloween storm puts BDL over the top for calendar year snowfall should it stand. I believe they had 102.9 in 1996, plus 82.9 in 2005. The 2011 total is like a McGwire or Bonds home run total, juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yeah I agree... I'll pick the freak synoptic scale storm than the freak mesoscale event. Yeah I think as a region, the Oct 29-30th event was more anomalous, but I think the BUF event is extremely unique in its own right. It occurred 2 weeks earlier! That's a lot more difficult to do that early in the season. The CAPE for that event was also higher than some of our tstm days in SNE. I was watching our lightning plot at work, and it was strike after strike...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yeah I agree... I'll pick the freak synoptic scale storm than the freak mesoscale event. Synoptic seems to always beat meso-scale except when tornadoes are involved. I'd agree that the October nor'easter seems more rare than an October lake effect event. I'm sure there's probably been other large October lake effect events over the past 100 years (they just might not have hit the Buffalo metro area in the heart of the band) but the chances of repeating this past October's storm seems very unlikely synoptically speaking. It doesn't seem all that hard to fathom another big October lake effect occurring with warm lake water and the time of year when we start seeing cold troughs moving over the Lakes. It seems like something that is just waiting to happen for the right blast of cold air and wind flow over the lake... while getting a trough, low pressure, and mid level centers to track where they did with the H85 temps as low as they were over SNE/Mid-Atlantic seems much less likely, IMO. Its the same when we get big freak upslope events here that impact a 20 mile wide by 40 mile long geographic area, while outside of that zone its partly sunny. Two years ago we had that end of April (29th-30th) upslope assisted snowstorm that dropped 1-2 feet all along the spine and western slopes (even 6" down into BTV) which led to the most widespread snow cover on May 1st in history up here. Although that event was extremely late in the season (a full month after April fools day), it didn't seem all that hard to imagine it happening again even though it was a record breaking event. Getting the cards to line up in meso-scale favored areas such as the lake belts and orographic upslope regions just seems easier to comprehend because there is that one variable that never changes (ie. lake supplying moisture or mountains supplying lift)... while in the synoptic events there are a lot more variables that need to come together to get a freak storm. Not sure if that makes sense, but synoptic large-scale storms seem like a lot harder to achieve than meso-scale events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yeah I agree... I'll pick the freak synoptic scale storm than the freak mesoscale event. I'm not sure that answers the question about which was more anomalous. I don't think lake-effect should be handicapped just because it's a mesoscale phenomenon. Weren't we have the discussion about the 1953 Worcester F4 vs. the snowstorm just a week or two ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Synoptic seems to always beat meso-scale except when tornadoes are involved. I'd agree that the October nor'easter seems more rare than an October lake effect event. I'm sure there's probably been other large October lake effect events over the past 100 years (they just might not have hit the Buffalo metro area in the heart of the band) but the chances of repeating this past October's storm seems very unlikely synoptically speaking. It doesn't seem all that hard to fathom another big October lake effect occurring with warm lake water and the time of year when we start seeing cold troughs moving over the Lakes. It seems like something that is just waiting to happen for the right blast of cold air and wind flow over the lake... while getting a trough, low pressure, and mid level centers to track where they did with the H85 temps as low as they were over SNE/Mid-Atlantic seems much less likely, IMO. Its the same when we get big freak upslope events here that impact a 20 mile wide by 40 mile long geographic area, while outside of that zone its partly sunny. Two years ago we had that end of April (29th-30th) upslope assisted snowstorm that dropped 1-2 feet all along the spine and western slopes (even 6" down into BTV) which led to the most widespread snow cover on May 1st in history up here. Although that event was extremely late in the season (a full month after April fools day), it didn't seem all that hard to imagine it happening again even though it was a record breaking event. Getting the cards to line up in meso-scale favored areas such as the lake belts and orographic upslope regions just seems easier to comprehend because there is that one variable that never changes (ie. lake supplying moisture or mountains supplying lift)... while in the synoptic events there are a lot more variables that need to come together to get a freak storm. Not sure if that makes sense, but synoptic large-scale storms seem like a lot harder to achieve than meso-scale events. I haven't seen anything...but the records back then aren't obviously super great. New England did have some severe snowstorms before official records in October in the 1700 and 1800s. Perhaps there is a lack of understanding...but lake-effect isn't exactly simpler than a synoptic snowstorm...a lot has to go right for an epic event to occur. Much like New England, the eastern Great Lakes have been blessed with a plethora of epic events since 1995...but historically, they are the exception rather than the rule. Shear, lack of synoptic moisture, shallow mixed layer, lack of instability, shifting winds, etc. can all hurt or kill a lake-effect event. Does anyone have any standardized anomaly plots (stdev) from the two events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I haven't seen anything...but the records back then aren't obviously super great. New England did have some severe snowstorms before official records in October in the 1700 and 1800s. Perhaps there is a lack of understanding...but lake-effect isn't exactly simpler than a synoptic snowstorm...a lot has to go right for an epic event to occur. Much like New England, the eastern Great Lakes have been blessed with a plethora of epic events since 1995...but historically, they are the exception rather than the rule. Shear, lack of synoptic moisture, shallow mixed layer, lack of instability, shifting winds, etc. can all hurt or kill a lake-effect event. Does anyone have any standardized anomaly plots (stdev) from the two events? That Oct 2006 event dropped 6-10 around here ( Lake MI ) which was the earliest ever for such a event. BTW.. A good way to check and see if there was a chance something happened would be to look at one of the GRR NWS/Grand Rapids, MI sites because usually when Buffalo gets it so does this area off of MI. Alot of the climo sites around here go all the way back to the 1800s. There has been flakes as early as Late September ( Sept 20th ) around here but that is it that i know of. Don.S is another good source for such stuff. This storm in the NE was just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 well take a look: The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of 2" or more in 100 years in October), but was the 7thgreatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo! Folks in Hartford are still trying to figure whether they got 12", 16" or 20" from the storm, but those numbers are 5X, 7X, or 9X all the previous October snow ever measured at BDL over the past 60 years. It's closer for NYC, as I think they got 3" and their October grand total was 1.8", over a 140-yr period. Farther north, Caribou gets measurable October snow about 2/3 of years, and their greatest storm is the 12.1" in 1963. That pales before the 30"+ accum in a few Berks/Monadnocks locations this year. The 2nd week October date for the sorm that ate Buffalo is indeed amazing. LES is pretty fickle, though. Hooker, at 1,800' in Tug Hill, got very little from that event, but had 25" in late Oct 2 yr later. Couple of once-in-several-lifetimes event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Can we just talk about the fact that much of central New England is over 30% of their normal seasonal snowfall before December 1st ... during a near record warm fall, and on average extremely unfavorable pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Many folks will have had their biggest storm of the season in October That is rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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