First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[Boston-winter08]

GGEM well wide right for Saturday (maybe 50 miles west of 00z?)

GEFS consistently south w/ tmrw

[CoastalWx]

The Canadian regional has a nice burst of SN at 00Z.

[CoastalWx]

Scott, What's the latest for us here in the highlands? On lunch break and no time to read through 7'000 pages. You guys are on a record setting pace.lol

Your still look good for 2-4"..maybe 3-4" range.

[Boston-winter08]

GEFS must have some pretty west members....comma head gets back to State College

[powderfreak]

The Canadian regional has a nice burst of SN at 00Z.

That's a Tolland Toaster Bath right there. You know I was watching TWC at the gym earlier and whatever their in-house model was showed that same dark blue burst around ORH and up 495 tomorrow evening.

[moneypitmike]

GGEM well wide right for Saturday (maybe 50 miles west of 00z?)

GEFS consistently south w/ tmrw

Where are you getting the ensembles? I'm only seeing yesterday's on e-wall.

[Boston-winter08]

Where are you getting the ensembles? I'm only seeing yesterday's on e-wall.

Huffman's site:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

[moneypitmike]

The Canadian regional has a nice burst of SN at 00Z.

Unfortuantley for some folks, that burst is only snow above the Mass border.

41.4/40

[CoastalWx]

Def some weenie members in there. All of SNE gets into the QPF with a low hundreds of miles to the se...lol.

[CoastalWx]

Unfortuantley for some folks, that burst is only snow above the Mass border.

41.4/40

I think he'll get some snow, but there is still a question of it being flakes with a slushy coating of crap or a legit 0.5" to 1". I'd lean a little to the latter, but we'll see what Dr No says.

[Zeus]

"that much"

40/70 still nice to see some of you posters come out of the woodwork like Zues and messenger. Winter is coming.

Sorry I don't hang around all summer for the clear weather 70 degrees obs threads.

[moneypitmike]

Huffman's site:

http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html

That link is still 00z run isn't it?

[ski MRG]

Thanks Pfreak,MPM,Scooter. I just want your calls to verify so I can troll Blizz mercilessly for doubting my Willow correlation.

[Boston-winter08]

That link is still 00z run isn't it?

if u scroll down, it gives you all the runs (00z is on top of the page)

[moneypitmike]

I think he'll get some snow, but there is still a question of it being flakes with a slushy coating of crap or a legit 0.5" to 1". I'd lean a little to the latter, but we'll see what Dr No says.

I was merely making fun of the green there.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's a Tolland Toaster Bath right there. You know I was watching TWC at the gym earlier and whatever their in-house model was showed that same dark blue burst around ORH and up 495 tomorrow evening.

That's snow in the hills and a mix lower than 400 feet on the RGEM

[Damage In Tolland]

Thanks Pfreak,MPM,Scooter. I just want your calls to verify so I can troll Blizz mercilessly for doubting my Willow correlation.

You were posting our weather follows Alaska's in Mid September..You said it snowed there so we would snow the following week What a

[CoastalWx]

I'd guess overall I'd feel good from Will to Pete on north into sw NH. Seems like there may be a 3-4 hr window where we could get a burst of almost MDT snow in those areas. Certainly potential for 2"+ there.

[moneypitmike]

if u scroll down, it gives you all the runs (00z is on top of the page)

Oh--thanks.

It is a little chilly with the 850. Can't make it out in too much detail, but it looks like the nw corner of mass is at freezing by 12z.

41.4/40

[Damage In Tolland]

Look closely at that RGEM..That dark blue actually extends right down to MT Tolland...Look if you don't believe me

[moneypitmike]

I'd guess overall I'd feel good from Will to Pete on north into sw NH. Seems like there may be a 3-4 hr window where we could get a burst of almost MDT snow in those areas. Certainly potential for 2"+ there.

I'm looking forward to seeing how long it takes for flakes to mix in tomorrow. Obvioulsy accums will lag, but just having them in the air will be awesome.

[Typhoon Tip]

Price paid for having a strong 1st system...

The problem, synoptically, for system 2 is not the inherent S/W strength; it is the fact that the 1st system is stronger, and has "dented" the ability for the 2nd system to roll-out immediately leading S/W ridging... If it had more, the wave would break sooner and the low would fire off sooner and closer. The other side of the same coin is to say "dynamics robbing" et al..

[Boston-winter08]

Oh--thanks.

It is a little chilly with the 850. Can't make it out in too much detail, but it looks like the nw corner of mass is at freezing by 12z.

41.4/40

that site is pretty quick...usually done with 100+ hours of data within 10 mins after the op is done running

[TheCloser24]

I'd rather have a significant winter storm this weekend than, some weak overrunning system that will only deliver a coating on trees and wet roads.

[moneypitmike]

Look closely at that RGEM..That dark blue actually extends right down to MT Tolland...Look if you don't believe me

It's not supposed to be taken literally.

41.5/40

[TheCloser24]

On the 12z UKMET the weekend storm bombs out! It goes from 1008mb off of Hatteras to 979mb east of Maine. Talk about bombogenesis!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

Have you guys read the NYC threads lately? i just read thru 2 pages on the storm..Brutal...had to get out of there quickly

[moneypitmike]

Have you guys read the NYC threads lately? i just read thru 2 pages on the storm..Brutal...had to get out of there quickly

No---why'd they scare you off?

[dryslot]

Have you guys read the NYC threads lately? i just read thru 2 pages on the storm..Brutal...had to get out of there quickly

Did you infuse any of your wisdom in there?

[NJwinter23]

Price paid for having a strong 1st system...

The problem, synoptically, for system 2 is not the inherent S/W strength; it is the fact that the 1st system is stronger, and has "dented" the ability for the 2nd system to roll-out immediately leading S/W ridging... If it had more, the wave would break sooner and the low would fire off sooner and closer. The other side of the same coin is to say "dynamics robbing" et al..

Though going off the GFS in the last 4 runs with the first system, the trend has been weaker and more progressive, definitely noteable at 850.

18z 48 hrs

12z 30 hrs