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First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

New thread for today since the old one is getting close to 1000 posts. 12z runs will be coming out soon.

Models came in a little cooler overnight opening up the idea to flakes for some on the coastal plain.

Also thy have come a bit S leaving some in C/NNE high and dry.

Previous model discussion.

http://www.americanw...land-201112-ii/

Let's hope that shift reverses tdoay. A continued south shift would shift the frequently referenced jackpot areas to the disappointed screwed one. lol

When will the SREF's come out?

40.6/38, sprinkles.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

At 700mb on the 03z SREFs....just looking at the orientation..it would be perfact from Dave to MPM and south to Kevin,

Check out the orientation of this 700mb trough and RH and I'll show you what I mean. Notice the trough axis of this open wave extends from ne PA and into se NY and the border of VT/NH with the border of MA. Unlike a close circulation..you kind of want to be near and just south of this shear zone. There usually is a good band right to the south of the deformation axis which would probably be in those areas I mentioned. It's also good to have that "bulge" west in the RH fields, move over your location. I'm not saying these are right, just pointing out things to look at, that are good indicators of where the best snow or precip will be.

post-33-0-18598400-1319633240.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Calais, ME?

Enjoy your 3+. If I had to give a range, 2-4 would work, but I think you can break 3. Caveat being is if this shifts south, or this second wave is less organized (which is possible)..but unless 12z runs suck...I think the Pit will be white and not just a slushy inch either.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

At 700mb on the 03z SREFs....just looking at the orientation..it would be perfact from Dave to MPM and south to Kevin,

Check out the orientation of this 700mb trough and RH and I'll show you what I mean. Notice the trough axis of this open wave extends from ne PA and into se NY and the border of VT/NH with the border of MA. Unlike a close circulation..you kind of want to be near and just south of this shear zone. There usually is a good band right to the south of the deformation axis which would probably be in those areas I mentioned. It's also good to have that "bulge" west in the RH fields, move over your location. I'm saying these are right, just pointing out things to look at, that are good indicators of where the best snow or precip will be.

post-33-0-18598400-1319633240.gif

Thanks for the uplifting news for MBY--and the educational lesson as well.

Suspect we'll be seeing some additional refinements as we go through the next 18-24 hrs, but it would be great if we could see all guidance congeal with the 00z runs.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Storm 1...locked

Stom 2...Not locked but the lock has been placed thru the hinges..just have to click it shut

There are still question marks which makes the forecast kind of tough to say the least. Hopefully you can pull an inch. You actually want a trend south where Socks and Dendrite don't. My concern is still the fact that there is a race for the cold and moisture even for areas like Will which makes me a little cautious, but he and up through Dave will have the ground white and probably be able to dip weenies into the snow.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Enjoy your 3+. If I had to give a range, 2-4 would work, but I think you can break 3. Caveat being is if this shifts south, or this second wave is less organized (which is possible)..but unless 12z runs suck...I think the Pit will be white and not just a slushy inch either.

Storm 1...locked

Stom 2...Not locked but the lock has been placed thru the hinges..just have to click it shut

Still room to shift on #1.

For #2 the lock might be in the hinges, but locks in hinges don't do anything. It's supposed to go through the latch--and we're not that close yet.

40.5/38

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the uplifting news for MBY--and the educational lesson as well.

Suspect we'll be seeing some additional refinements as we go through the next 18-24 hrs, but it would be great if we could see all guidance congeal with the 00z runs.

Still some concerns, but I think you are ok as of now. Fingers crossed on the 12z runs.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

There are still question marks which makes the forecast kind of tough to say the least. Hopefully you can pull an inch. You actually want a trend south where Socks and Dendrite don't. My concern is still the fact that there is a race for the cold and moisture even for areas like Will which makes me a little cautious, but he and up through Dave will have the ground white and probably be able to dip weenies into the snow.

Looks like the NAM and Sref's have nailed this one. 1-2 possibly 3 for me if it breaks right

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Friday morning on MT. Tolland??

post-492-0-07661900-1319634096.jpg

I remember showing that pic to my buddy and our MTN Ops coordinator and getting a good laugh, along with the VP of operations. That was back when SNE had more snow than the northern greens. Our VP said you should come design our snowbanks at the resort to make it look like tunnels.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I remember showing that pic to my buddy and our MTN Ops coordinator and getting a good laugh, along with the VP of operations. That was back when SNE had more snow than the northern greens. Our VP said you should come design our snowbanks at the resort to make it look like tunnels.

LOL..I love that pic.. that was when they were at their best.

If the VP would pay me the right amount..I would be up there in a heartbeat. Tell him to contact me

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