First Winter Storm Threat (Oct 27/28) for New England 2011/12 - III

[ski MRG]

1-3 here tomorrow night and another 1-3 Saturday

This has my weenie jumping for joy

When will you admit I was right?

[moneypitmike]

Congrats everyone

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Ne weekend snow I like 1-3 inches, locally 5 75 miles either side of line Wilmington Delaware to Boston Mass

Congrats. Funny though that 75 miles east of that line iconsists of 75 miles of ocean. lol

FTL, I'm 100 miles west of Boston

41.7/40

[Damage In Tolland]

When will you admit I was right?

You weren't. You posted the Alaska thing in mid September

[weatherMA]

When will you admit I was right?

When will you admit it was a hot summer?

[CoastalWx]

AWT

HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HOURS

OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WET SNOW MAY AFFECT THE

INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...AS FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT LOOKS RATHER STRONG

DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY

FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH THE EVENING

RUSH HOUR...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY WARM BEING THAT ITS LATE OCTOBER...WE

HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THAT IF SNOW COMES DOWN HEAVY IT WILL

ACCUMULATE.

You're still on the srn cusp if the good stuff. Not being a downer..just saying. I'd have to say this looks best from Socks to MPM to Pete and then Will. Somewhere within that zone. Will might eek out over 2" if it breaks right. But, any little sag south will help you out. Someome for about 2-3 hrs may see it really come down. Probably 22z-02z timeframe.

[Cold Miser]

Advisory worthy for some?

[moneypitmike]

1-3 here tomorrow night and another 1-3 Saturday

This has my weenie jumping for joy

Congrats, Kevin from BOX:

Thursday...Rain. Patchy fog. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with rain with a chance of snow in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Patchy fog. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Much colder with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

[weatherMA]

You're still on the srn cusp if the good stuff. Not being a downer..just saying. I'd have to say this looks best from Socks to MPM to Pete and then Will. Somewhere within that zone. Will might eek out over 2" if it breaks right. But, any little sag south will help you out. Someome for about 2-3 hrs may see it really come down. Probably 22z-02z timeframe.

The timing couldn't be any better. About 5-6pm to 10pm...perfect. Don't have anything to do, and don't have to lose sleep over it. Can just watch and track it...and post on here hallucinating that snow is mixing in at 3pm when really we have 100% rain.

[ORH_wxman]

It def looks decent for a few hours here...one thing I hate as I checked out the 12z suite is that it seems timing has been sped up by about 2-3 hours. I would have rather it be later...but beggars can't be choosers I suppose. If it comes down hard, it will stick regardless, but if its a 3/4 -SN, then the few hour difference could slice accumulation potential in half.

[CT Rain]

Not sure why no freeze watches in effect here... I haven't even been close to 32F

[HoarfrostHubb]

You're still on the srn cusp if the good stuff. Not being a downer..just saying. I'd have to say this looks best from Socks to MPM to Pete and then Will. Somewhere within that zone. Will might eek out over 2" if it breaks right. But, any little sag south will help you out. Someome for about 2-3 hrs may see it really come down. Probably 22z-02z timeframe.

Headin to Weenie Ridge?

[weatherMA]

Congrats, Kevin from BOX:

Thursday...Rain. Patchy fog. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with rain with a chance of snow in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Patchy fog. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Much colder with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

The Box update gives me .5" of snow and took away all snow mentioned for Saturday/Saturday night.

[moneypitmike]

You're still on the srn cusp if the good stuff. Not being a downer..just saying. I'd have to say this looks best from Socks to MPM to Pete and then Will. Somewhere within that zone. Will might eek out over 2" if it breaks right. But, any little sag south will help you out. Someome for about 2-3 hrs may see it really come down. Probably 22z-02z timeframe.

No doubt the NAM's overdoing the moisture, but if that were to play out, GC and northern ORH to Socks would have a respectable storm.

[ORH_wxman]

The slightly earlier timing will have been cutting back slightly on my guesses from last night.

[weatherMA]

The slightly earlier timing will have been cutting back slightly on my guesses from last night.

But isn't it still 90% after sunset anyway?

[HoarfrostHubb]

The slightly earlier timing will have been cutting back slightly on my guesses from last night.

I thought they were a bit bold

I guessed 2" here

[moneypitmike]

The timing couldn't be any better. About 5-6pm to 10pm...perfect. Don't have anything to do, and don't have to lose sleep over it. Can just watch and track it...and post on here hallucinating that snow is mixing in at 3pm when really we have 100% rain.

I'll have daylight to assess mixing/changing out here. But, you're right--no sleep to lose over this one. That said, there's something nice to waking up to snows that came while asleep.

The Box update gives me .5" of snow and took away all snow mentioned for Saturday/Saturday night.

Yeah--their AFD is really focused on south of the Pike. Very little enthusaism from them in that.

[CoastalWx]

The slightly earlier timing will have been cutting back slightly on my guesses from last night.

It still looks like it doesn't really turn over until 5ish which is sort of getting dark by then.

[ORH_wxman]

But isn't it still 90% after sunset anyway?

For you, definitely...but instead of flipping at 00z here and going until 06z...it might try and do it at 21z and only go until 03z or 04z...and the northern areas will be having more snow in the daylight for sure.

I was counting on a 4 hour window of really ripping between about 8pm and midnight which would have been solid..but if its more like 6pm to 10pm then it will cut back a bit.

We still have time to see if it slows down a bit again...that vortmax is pretty strong and models might be trying to rush the precip out of here before that vortmax moves through.

[Boston-winter08]

missed opportunity again on the 18z nam for saturday....starts out looking like the trof axis was further west with more digging but ends up flattening out cause of the kicker out west....so much potential

[moneypitmike]

BOX is really playing low-ball wrt to accumulations. For the western most zones, they're calling for 1-3". I'm thinking more, but maybe I'm doing too much crack.

[CoastalWx]

Not that it will work out like that, but loop the evolution on this. You can see how the precip is fractured during the aftn and then as the s/w approaches, the echoes redevelop again and probably some decent rates. I could see that happening.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/

[CoastalWx]

BOX is really playing low-ball wrt to accumulations. For the western most zones, they're calling for 1-3". I'm thinking more, but maybe I'm doing too much crack.

That's a good range for a general area. Little nuances like hilly terrain always can't be specific.

[Damage In Tolland]

Once past 4:00 it will have no trouble sticking on grass and trees..It's basically no sun angle by then. No worries

[weatherMA]

missed opportunity again on the 18z nam for saturday....starts out looking like the trof axis was further west with more digging but ends up flattening out cause of the kicker out west....so much potential

Yup...a near miss again. If only all models were just 75-100 miles west.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe some embedded heavier bands of precip tomorrow around 00z. Notice the little layers near 750mb and above 600mb that are somewhat potentially unstable.

[Damage In Tolland]

You figure the Euro dropping 1-3 from the CT River east on Saturday night can probably be extended west a bit since it tends to under estimate qpf on west fringes..I'd extend it back to CT/NY border

[snowman21]

Not sure why no freeze watches in effect here... I haven't even been close to 32F

Frost/freeze program may be over there. Average first freeze date at BDL is around 10/9. Further south obviously that date is later, but most places in CT average their first freeze by now with the exception of maybe the southern 1/3 of the state. BDR's first freeze average is around 11/4.

[ORH_wxman]

That's a good range for a general area. Little nuances like hilly terrain always can't be specific.

It will be hard to get more than 4" in this unless it lasts a bit longer.

[weatherMA]

You figure the Euro dropping 1-3 from the CT River east on Saturday night can probably be extended west a bit since it tends to under estimate qpf on west fringes..I'd extend it back to CT/NY border

Wasn't it just this morning when you said toss the weekend storm and that you would be raking/leaf blowing on Saturday?