snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 For that second system, GFS keeps the nrn stream energy progressing east and doesn't link up with all that s/w energy over Texas. Yea plenty of time to change though... I think this could be the typlical GFS "lose the storm 7 days out" bias. I'm actually more intrigued with that storm over the first storm with the abundance of cold air that will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Those twisterdata snow depth algorithms are the weenieist thing until we get a CTblizz/snowNH love child. LOL it looks like it's assuming 12:1 ratios and a ground that is frozen solid to begin with....not happening in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I (heart) them. Clearly they're wack, but it feels good to slam the weenie into the wall hard once in a while. I think the 6z GFS run on there gave me 12-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Other than a 1-2 inches in my area it isnt bad considering its October. October snowfall events (>2) have become very rare over the past 20-30 years and it maybe closely related to the PDO phase and hopefully we go back to the -PDO era where almost every Winter was epic Anyways I think the GFS is too progressive with the secondary storm and it has a tendency to do that. It does very minimal phasing and given the lack of Blocking and -PNA I suspect this will track further West but the GFS like the 0z Euro lose the Southern stream too quickly thus keeping the storm from strengthening or gaining any more moisture. The models at first underplayed this past storm but over time the models strengthened it every run and it met its expectations atleast in my area where i got over 2 inches of p!ss. If the Southern stream speeds up it can phase nicely with the Northern Stream but the possibilities are wide open and anything could happen but the weak 50/50 Low positioned across Newfoundland and the left over energy acts like a blocking effect so its a 50/50 chance everywhere right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The GFS ensembles are stronger it seems with the first storm. As a result, they are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I think the first storm will be milder. The question is what if anything..comes about with the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Those twisterdata snow depth algorithms are the weenieist thing until we get a CTblizz/snowNH love child. Yeah they are horrible. They will put snow down even when large chunks of the column are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I think the first storm will be milder. The question is what if anything..comes about with the second storm. Hmm the 12z GFS ENS. isnt bad. I get some nice Wintry precip. in my area lol though surface temps are warmer than the 850mb temps so I don't think some of it will "stick" but it will fall in the form of snowfall or Wet snow. Atleast the ENS. isnt as progressive lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Euro digs a little more with that Thursday night low and as a result..low is further south than the GFS op shows. Congrats Will on the euro..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Euro digs a little more with that Thursday night low and as a result..low is further south than the GFS op shows. Congrats Will on the euro..lol. Yeah the Euro looks like a cold rain to start for everyone but the interior definitely flips to snow and probably a couple of inches of wet snow. Looks like even the coast might end as some flakes...but probably not accumulation verbatim (maybe a coating?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah the Euro looks like a cold rain to start for everyone but the interior definitely flips to snow and probably a couple of inches of wet snow. Looks like even the coast might end as some flakes...but probably not accumulation verbatim (maybe a coating?). from what I am seeing its def. cold enough at the end even down to the coast, depends on how much precip is left its not far from being more down at the coast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah the Euro looks like a cold rain to start for everyone but the interior definitely flips to snow and probably a couple of inches of wet snow. Looks like even the coast might end as some flakes...but probably not accumulation verbatim (maybe a coating?). Look how the temps at 850 just keep collapsing se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 from what I am seeing its def. cold enough at the end even down to the coast, depends on how much precip is left its not far from being more down at the coast too Its marginal at the coast at the very end. Its plenty cold enough aloft, but the BL is always a bigger issue this early. Its still mid to upper 30s on the coast at the end. So it would probably be some flakes that don't stick very well at the end on the coast. I'm still not really buying this solution anyway...but if we're talking verbatim here, then yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Its marginal at the coast at the very end. Its plenty cold enough aloft, but the BL is always a bigger issue this early. Its still mid to upper 30s on the coast at the end. So it would probably be some flakes that don't stick very well at the end on the coast. I'm still not really buying this solution anyway...but if we're talking verbatim here, then yeah. I'm only talking verbatim. Could care less about sticking this early, seeing the flakes will be nice. I actually think this solution is pretty reasonable given the higher heights showing up west of greenland and the strength of the HP moving in. This solution has been showing up on several of the gfs ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 12z GEM similar to 0z (more or less OTS w/ development too late, very progressive, but maybe a few flakes for SCT?), GGEM ensemble further north just saw the 06z DGEX (lol, that would bury SNH north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah the Euro looks like a cold rain to start for everyone but the interior definitely flips to snow and probably a couple of inches of wet snow. Looks like even the coast might end as some flakes...but probably not accumulation verbatim (maybe a coating?). At least this summer I've been starting the snowblower every month or so--don't want to have the "oh sh*t, the snow's starting in two hours and the snowblower's not working" scenario. I'm not suggesting I'll need it this week mind you. Of course, the Rev has called for 3-6 (maybe it was 2-4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Its marginal at the coast at the very end. Its plenty cold enough aloft, but the BL is always a bigger issue this early. Its still mid to upper 30s on the coast at the end. So it would probably be some flakes that don't stick very well at the end on the coast. I'm still not really buying this solution anyway...but if we're talking verbatim here, then yeah. There's a lot of moving parts at 500mb so yeah.....I don't think this run would excite me too much. We'll see how the ensembles look a little later this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 euro looks good for a few flakes in the air even here but this early in the season it just makes you laugh because you know that it more then likely wont happen but i also seen snow accumulate here on may 19th 2002 i think it was and i never thought i would see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 There's a lot of moving parts at 500mb so yeah.....I don't think this run would excite me too much. We'll see how the ensembles look a little later this aftn. One of the keys seems to be on the 84-96 period when you loop 500mb/vorticity...how much of that vorticity gets phased into the northern stream shortwave...as its going through Colorado and the southern vort dives into NM, some vorticity is getting absorbed into the northern s/w. Just how much will definitely be one of the factors in how flat or amped that first wave is...and it could also affect the 2nd wave. Of course, this is only one main part...there's the ULL up in SE Canada and the kicker in the northenr stream behind the first s/w. Very low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Gradient Winter begins now! Have a clown map to go with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Anyone think we should start a separate thread for this storm threat? Its at least interesting to watch for all of us (NNE/CNE/SNE) and maybe should be removed from the "banter" threads? I don't really care but it would be better than switching from the NNE thread to the SNE thread for analysis and that's sort of the purpose of this whole regional forum idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 euro looks good for a few flakes in the air even here but this early in the season it just makes you laugh because you know that it more then likely wont happen but i also seen snow accumulate here on may 19th 2002 i think it was and i never thought i would see that OT--My wife and I were just thinking back to like 2000-2001 when we were living down in Eashampton with Charter Cable. We were laughing about how we couldn't get the Pats down there--it was all Jets. I think the AFC games were on some CT station and they kept showing the Jets. Has that changed? Probalby once they won the superbowl, they started covering them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 way to early to think about this but with leaves on the trees it wouldnt take much snowfall to cause alot of power problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Anyone think we should start a separate thread for this storm threat? Its at least interesting to watch for all of us (NNE/CNE/SNE) and maybe should be removed from the "banter" threads? I don't really care but it would be better than switching from the NNE thread to the SNE thread for analysis and that's sort of the purpose of this whole regional forum idea... Wow--a call for the first Weenie thread of the season! I think 4 days out is a little premature--maybe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Anyone think we should start a separate thread for this storm threat? Its at least interesting to watch for all of us (NNE/CNE/SNE) and maybe should be removed from the "banter" threads? I don't really care but it would be better than switching from the NNE thread to the SNE thread for analysis and that's sort of the purpose of this whole regional forum idea... Bob said if the threat was still there, He was going to start one Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 way to early to think about this but with leaves on the trees it wouldnt take much snowfall to cause alot of power problems But I'll think about it anyway. lol I really don't think that would be a problem as the leaves' demise would just be hastened and drop right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Wow--a call for the first Weenie thread of the season! I think 4 days out is a little premature--maybe tomorrow? Haha, sure. It just seems to be the focus of this forum right now and the only thing to talk about. I wasn't thinking "weenie" thread per se (that can stay in the banter, haha), was just thinking analysis and what models have been showing. No one has talked about anything else in this thread for 5 pages, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 At least this summer I've been starting the snowblower every month or so--don't want to have the "oh sh*t, the snow's starting in two hours and the snowblower's not working" scenario. I'm not suggesting I'll need it this week mind you. Of course, the Rev has called for 3-6 (maybe it was 2-4). lol...I've been doing the same thing. My snow blower wouldn't start after the January 12th storm. Thankfully it worked for that storm but it wouldn't start after that. I sent it in for repairs and got it back in March lol. I've been starting it ever since because I guess the combination of gas and engines these days are so bad that they almost routinely fail if you don't put preservative in them and run them every once and a while, they will fail. I've learned that there are certain brands to avoid and stores not to buy from. Hint: the brands they sell at the big box stores aren't always made by the company on the label. I'll agree we probably won't need them this week, but it would be nice to see our first T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Euro digs a little more with that Thursday night low and as a result..low is further south than the GFS op shows. Congrats Will on the euro..lol. Locked. Seriously, it has been pretty consistent the past few runs with showing snow further south then the goofus. The Euro is the best model, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 yeah up there lol we still have alot of trees that are still green around here maybe 25% even if we were to get an inch or two of snow i think it would cause problems.. I dont think its going to happen but still something to think about i guess But I'll think about it anyway. lol I really don't think that would be a problem as the leaves' demise would just be hastened and drop right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.