WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 00z Euro has lows in the low 40s for most of us for Sunday/Monday and mid/upper 40s Saturday. 6z GFS is even colder, with the 40F isotherm right along or just north of I-95 Sunday and Monday mornings with 40s for everyone on Saturday morning. Both showing highs in the mid 50s to near 60 for Saturday and Sunday. Should be sunny, so looks like a beautiful fall weekend! Great football weather for the Ravens/Jets Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I, for one, am ready for a cold shot. This will definitely get the color going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 And also needed to help dry things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Both the Euro and GFS go subzero at 850. Just an indication of the impending time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Both the Euro and GFS go subzero at 850. Just an indication of the impending time of year cold/dry A good cool shot, but we'll be back in above normal territory by the 2nd week of October. This cold looks to be more impressive than the last one... mid/upper 40s at DCA for a low/lows, though lower 40s are quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 we'll be back in above normal territory by the 2nd week of October. What makes you say that? After being impressively pissy about posting the 360hr GFS for grins, this seems like an awfully confident statement for 300hr+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 What makes you say that? After being impressively pissy about posting the 360hr GFS for grins, this seems like an awfully confident statement for 300hr+ out. Teleconnections, son, teleconnections. This ain't about posting a model... it's real medium-range forecasting. The ridge is going to jog east and eventually the high pressure will move off the coast and allow for southerly flow to return. Confidence isn't huge, but it's a good bet at this point. You have MJO phase 7, +EPO, +AO and -PNA, which all indicate a warm eastern U.S. in October. There isn't much to indicate that it would stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Teleconnections, son, teleconnections. This ain't about posting a model... it's real medium-range forecasting. The ridge is going to jog east and eventually the high pressure will move off the coast and allow for southerly flow to return. Confidence isn't huge, but it's a good bet at this point. You have MJO phase 7, +EPO, +AO and -PNA, which all indicate a warm eastern U.S. in October. There isn't much to indicate that it would stay cold. Since I'm 5 years older than you, don't call me "son". The models also recognize teleconnections. My point is, don't be hypocritical about Day 12-15 forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 hahahahahah mark, you are ridiculous....son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Teleconnections, son, teleconnections. This ain't about posting a model... it's real medium-range forecasting. The ridge is going to jog east and eventually the high pressure will move off the coast and allow for southerly flow to return. Confidence isn't huge, but it's a good bet at this point. You have MJO phase 7, +EPO, +AO and -PNA, which all indicate a warm eastern U.S. in October. There isn't much to indicate that it would stay cold. In the past, I've seen reference to the October NAO state and the correlation to the winter state. IIRC, it has been proposed that we would typically want the Oct. state to be positive. Seeing your forecast of returning warmth and ridging, do you see the NAO being pos. in this time frame? I notice the (GFS I guess) NAO predictions look to be slightly negative for the next 10 days or so, but afterward seem to be rising. Also, do buy into the NAO Oct observation being a predictor of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Since I'm 5 years older than you, don't call me "son". The models also recognize teleconnections. My point is, don't be hypocritical about Day 12-15 forecasts. You're missing the point...as long as you just look at a 15 day GFS forecast and not post it, you can play it off as a hunch, or in this case, a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Since I'm 5 years older than you, don't call me "son". The models also recognize teleconnections. My point is, don't be hypocritical about Day 12-15 forecasts. I call lots of people son... including my co-workers who are five years older than me. Nevertheless, making a medium range forecast and posting a 300+ hr GFS Operational map are completely different things... so yeah, not hypocritical. However, if you had posted the map and then gave solid reasoning for why it could be accurate, THEN it could/would be. No crap the models recognize teleconnections, but it can (and often does) fail to fully grasp the blend of them in the medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 :lol: If I come in here and post a Day 20 forecast with all the maps to back it up, can I have a red tag please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 I call lots of people son... including my co-workers who are five years older than me. Good for you. Don't call me "son". Nevertheless, making a medium range forecast and posting a 300+ hr GFS Operational map are completely different things... so yeah, not hypocritical. However, if you had posted the map and then gave solid reasoning for why it could be accurate, THEN it could/would be. No crap the models recognize teleconnections, but it can (and often does) fail to fully grasp the blend of them in the medium/long range. I didn't give any reasoning because it was posted for FUN. You got your panties in a wad about it even after I clarified that. You're a good forecaster, but you need an attitude adjustment and a not-so-small dose of humility. The humility part goes well with the "son" comments. It implies superiority, not friendliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Before I trust the models at day 15 I want them to be right about the clouds leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Before I trust the models at day 15 I want them to be right about the clouds leaving. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Before I trust the models at day 15 I want them to be right about the clouds leaving. Sucks to be you, its been sunny in Baltimore for an hour or so now. Must be because you are a Dallas fan living in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 There has indeed been a little bit of sun downtown Balt for the last little bit. A nice departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Sucks to be you, its been sunny in Baltimore for an hour or so now. Must be because you are a Dallas fan living in DC sun is coming out here too now. but i think it was originally supposed to several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 sun is coming out here too now. but i think it was originally supposed to several days ago. You're a Cowboys fan? My stellar opinion of you just dropped down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 sun is coming out here too now. but i think it was originally supposed to several days ago. Mmmm, sun was out at my place yesterday. I heard Saturday was sunny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 sun is coming out here too now. but i think it was originally supposed to several days ago. You had no sun over the weekend? Parts of Sat and Sun had some peeks in the afternoon. dried up the grass enough for me to mow it...well, the kid did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 You're a Cowboys fan? My stellar opinion of you just dropped down to earth. yes, sadly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Mmmm, sun was out at my place yesterday. I heard Saturday was sunny too. some sun broke out over the west up toward frederick etc on saturday. saw a few breaks yesterday but it's been mostly cloudy + here for at least 10 days. partly-to-mostly cloudy is not sunny in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 The last couple days IMBY, it's been foggy/cloudy in the morning and then the low stuff breaks up/burns off by mid-afternoon. Yesterday thought it came back a bit in the evening. Lower Sun angle is making it harder for this low stratus to dissipate in time to get a sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 some sun broke out over the west up toward frederick etc on saturday. saw a few breaks yesterday but it's been mostly cloudy + here for at least 10 days. partly-to-mostly cloudy is not sunny in my book. Pfffft, who cares about your book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 You're a Cowboys fan? My stellar opinion of you just dropped down to earth. However, my opinion of you just shot into orbit. Go Cowboys!! (although, I concede that at this point, the skins appear to be the better team.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 However, my opinion of you just shot into orbit. Go Cowboys!! (although, I concede that at this point, the skins appear to be the better team.) I'm a Ravens fan...I can't really stand either team, but I'll give the Skins the edge since they're local. Despite that, I have the Cowboys winning tonight in the Amwx pick-em league, so I'll root for them just for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 some sun broke out over the west up toward frederick etc on saturday. saw a few breaks yesterday but it's been mostly cloudy + here for at least 10 days. partly-to-mostly cloudy is not sunny in my book. Does your book say anything about 300hr maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The sun can come out all it wants - I want this humidity away too though. Yes...I want it alll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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