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KA's 2011-12 Winter Outlook


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I'm a little more bullish than last year but as Matt noted, for every year we get over 20 inches, it seems like we have 6 years with snowfall amounts below average so he's bucking the odds. If you look at the easterly qbo years with a cold enso....the ones HM posted. Only 1962-1963 got over 16 inches (21.4), 5 others had 12-15 and 3 had 5 to 7. That argues to me that somewhere in the 12-15 inch range is the most likely range unless something changes but snow amounts are such a crap shoot, he could be right. It only takes one really good storm and one modest one to get to his totals.

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I remember when everyone actually cared about KA's forecast.

His 2009-2010 torch/low snow forecast really hurt him IMHO. But his overall track record is still decent. I can't remember what he went for last year. (edit: just saw in the link he missed way too high on snow last year but his temp forecast was very good)

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His 2009-2010 torch/low snow forecast really hurt him IMHO. But his overall track record is still decent. I can't remember what he went for last year. (edit: just saw in the link he missed way too high on snow last year but his temp forecast was very good)

Snow could have easily hit his forecast last year. We were literally inches away from having a steller snow season but for whatever reason it just wasn't meant to be here. Man, it was painful watching areas south and north cash in while we watched flurries. Good for the VA tidewater though. They don't get good winters very often at all.

I'm not sure I agree with Dec being above normal. If anything, I'm thinking Dec is the most likely month to be below normal this winter.

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not many la nina winters with the coldest month in February....there aren't many cold la nina February's...January is colder on average...

Not to throw off on your, or anyone else's for that matter, work, but I think too much is made of some of the temp analogs. One or two degrees or even three isn't necessarily an indicator of the winter. It could easily be well below normal and snowfall be below right along with it. I could see it easily going the other way as well. My worry is precip. I'd love to see some precip analog maps for my area.

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