cgwx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Perhaps, but looking at the visible satellite imagery, it looks like there is a new, robust at least mid-level circulation developing much more under the convection, say around 18N, 59W. Yep, it's trying, though it will take at least one more day to get it's act together and start strengthening. I'm now in the Euro camp, peaking it at hurricane (cat 1) in around 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 000WTNT41 KNHC 272034 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011 A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 Not a classical TC presentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Up to 45 knots after recon found supportive SFMR winds. I'm still not super optimistic with max intensity though... will likely pull a Maria and become a cane before becoming extatropical as suggested by the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Up to 45 knots after recon found supportive SFMR winds. I'm still not super optimistic with max intensity though... will likely pull a Maria and become a cane before becoming extatropical as suggested by the NHC. Yep. Lots o' boring right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Yep. Lots o' boring right here. Whats more entertaining is what the GFS does with Philippe over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Not a classical TC presentation... It is for this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Ophelia looks much better organized tonight... The outflow is starting to fight the upper level low to its northwest, and it seems like the outflow is winning as the upper level low is losing definition are starting to open up into a trough. Thus, I think there is an excellent chance Ophelia will become a hurricane at this point. Convectively it doesn't look super impressive right now, and it will have to mix out the dry air in the next 24 hours if it wants to become anything stronger than a category one. If it does, then an ECWMF like solution where the storm intensifies into the 970's is certainly possible. This storm really is Maria part 2, except its her bigger sister. This might seem strange to say, but Ophelia's low level circulation dissipating was the best thing that could have happened to the storm so the mid-level circulation no longer had to fight the low level vortex for convective forcing. It essentially allowed the storm to "reset" and reform under the mid-level circulation and become more vertically stacked again. Had the original llc persisted for maybe another 24 hours, it would have continued to run further into the shear and we wouldn't be talking about "an excellent chance" of hurricane formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Ophelia looks much better organized tonight... The outflow is starting to fight the upper level low to its northwest, and it seems like the outflow is winning as the upper level low is losing definition are starting to open up into a trough. Thus, I think there is an excellent chance Ophelia will become a hurricane at this point. Convectively it doesn't look super impressive right now, and it will have to mix out the dry air in the next 24 hours if it wants to become anything stronger than a category one. If it does, then an ECWMF like solution where the storm intensifies into the 970's is certainly possible. This storm really is Maria part 2, except its her bigger sister. This might seem strange to say, but Ophelia's low level circulation dissipating was the best thing that could have happened to the storm so the mid-level circulation no longer had to fight the low level vortex for convective forcing. It essentially allowed the storm to "reset" and reform under the mid-level circulation and become more vertically stacked again. Had the original llc persisted for maybe another 24 hours, it would have continued to run further into the shear and we wouldn't be talking about "an excellent chance" of hurricane formation. fascinating system. I find this one far more interesting than most others just because of the processes you described and how poorly the models handled it. Looks like an eye may be about to try to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Looks like we have a hurricane, 18z SHIPS was initialized with 65kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Officially a hurricane now, forecasted to reach 80 kt. TS Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see Ophelia become a hurricane down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 We got an eye starting to popup on IR... cat 2 probable in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 We got an eye starting to popup on IR... cat 2 probable in the next 12 hours. Outside chance of Cat 3 like the ECWMF is suggesting as well. Who would have thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 maybe it'll get strong enough to create its own environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Outside chance of Cat 3 like the ECWMF is suggesting as well. Who would have thought! Yep, that would make a few (everyone) in the tropical contest happy, and would promote cheering for your namesake... it would be a Tampa Rays like comeback for September if the extreme verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Ophelia is even stronger now-- 80 kt-- and the forecast track still brings a hurricane into Newfoundland. How sad is it that Canada is getting more hurricane landfalls this year than the USA and MX combined? Ugh-- just nauseating. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Ophelia is even stronger now-- 80 kt-- and the forecast track still brings a hurricane into Newfoundland. How sad is it that Canada is getting more hurricane landfalls this year than the USA and MX combined? Ugh-- just nauseating. lolz Expand your horizon more? I want this to be a major now just for the contest....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Ophelia is even stronger now-- 80 kt-- and the forecast track still brings a hurricane into Newfoundland. How sad is it that Canada is getting more hurricane landfalls this year than the USA and MX combined? Ugh-- just nauseating. lolz Newfoundland landfalls FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 90kt at 8am, 12z SHIPS was initialized at 95kt so likely 11am intensity. Making a good run at trying to get to major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Nice! Quickly from POS to decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Nice... Major #3 INIT 30/1500Z 23.5N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.2N 63.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 32.1N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 37.0N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 Nice! Quickly from POS to decent Good. I can survive a year without US landfalls if we'd just get some good satellite pron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 nice fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 tell that to Bermuda not a direct hit but close enough for them nice fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 So many people wrote this off as a dead storm. Amazing reincarnation for the reasons one of the mets described in that the M/L and LL were so far detached a new LL developed under the ML. Great system to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 tell that to Bermuda not a direct hit but close enough for them i'll make sure to tell bermuda when i see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 You going to go up there to chase it? Ophelia is even stronger now-- 80 kt-- and the forecast track still brings a hurricane into Newfoundland. How sad is it that Canada is getting more hurricane landfalls this year than the USA and MX combined? Ugh-- just nauseating. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It's probably up to 105kt now, eye is better defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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