Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 It is almost September 20th, and to badly misquote someone, only a hopeless romantic looks towards Africa for tropical romance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 We're up to a 60% cherry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 *yawn* Cool, we can waste Ophelia on a storm of little consequence that will get sheared apart in the Caribbean. What is our ACE up to? 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Could get the media stirred up some before any collective yawn. Shear forecast to relax a bit out ahead of it in the eastern Caribbean. The wave should find a better environment as the upper trough to its north (40 W) lifts northeast, and the upper trough north of Puerto Rico fills a bit while retreating to the northwest. Ridging should be left in between and along the path of the wave toward the Leeward Isles. See if it can get going in a day or two. By the weekend, however, a broad trough in the eastern US takes shape. Plus westerlies increase over the Gulf. Once the thing pokes its nose above about 22.5 N it will face problems. Though the mainland USA looks safe, it is a week away and the jury is still out for our friends in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 I'm glass half full because GFS does get it to the Caribbean as an undeveloped wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It looks pretty good this morning, with nice banding... it may need just a bit of organization (it looks elongated east-west), but it's pretty close. Hopefully ASCAT can nail most of the circulation in an hour or so --which looks like it will--. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 ASCAT sucks. It looks like it's broad and elongated east-west, as I said before, but it's probably closed, though there are no west wind barbs in this partial from ASCAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Ophelia at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I guess someone ought to change the thread title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I guess someone ought to change the thread title... I'm glad. Ophelia has nothing on Opal. I'm still saying Rina in the Caribbean in October... :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Where have we seen a track like this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Where have we seen a track like this before? Yep we literally have a Maria redux, just a little slower. The only major difference is that Maria had a life saving Kelvin wave that gave it a huge burst of convection right at it's weakest point when it was about to dissipate. I'm not sure if Ophelia will have such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 In the world of TC's, Ophelia looks like it's going to be an Ofailia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Jump to 50kt with the 11am advisory, though probably peaked or near peaking with 20kt of shear over the system, and the official forecast for slow weakening from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 15/3/2 with little chance of O-FAILURE (I like it so I stole it) improving H/MH. From a scientific perspective 2011 = ENORMOUSLY FAILICIOUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 15/3/2 I seriously have no idea how you could ever forecast something like that in the preseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I'm maybe a slight bit more optimistic about Ophelia's future. It looks like there is another Kelvin wave on the way from the East Pacific / Gulf of Mexico that might interact with Ophelia in right about the same area that Maria interacted with a CCKW that gave it some convective life. This might be why some of the models are no longer calling for outright dissipation by the time the system gets near the Lesser Antillies. It literally is looking like a Maria redux, except maybe a little bit further east and slower at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 In the world of TC's, Ophelia looks like it's going to be an Ofailia. This is not Shakespeare, Louie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 This is so pathetic. Getting some constant shear.....not sure how much longer this thing will hold out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 This is so pathetic. Getting some constant shear.....not sure how much longer this thing will hold out for. Totally. What a disgrace for that location at peak season. I haven't even read a Discussion for this system in two days. I forget it's there. It's pure fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 So did Ed apparently, since I've had to change the thread title the last three mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looking at the visible loop there has apparently been a relocation with that burst in convection north of the center, from all the pathetic Ophelia has been, that was mildly interesting from a scientific point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Recon shows that it effectively relocated further north (~15.4N), and that probably helped intensify Ophelia (though, it was probably never down to 35kts, like the 11am advisory showed). 58FL, 61SFMR, this is at least a 50kts TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Yep, 5pm advisory is just out... 50kt TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looking at the visible loop there has apparently been a relocation with that burst in convection north of the center, from all the pathetic Ophelia has been, that was mildly interesting from a scientific point. I'd say super-mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Tracks still pulling Ophelia away from the islands despite the continuing westward motion. The intensity models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Recon Data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 This microwave pass not making Ophelia look so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I disagree with the NHC's take on Ophelia, and think its on its last legs currently. Both the GFS and ECWMF (contrary to what the NHC said) show a very hostile environment ahead of the system for the next 120 hours. I posted on my blog earlier, and continue to still believe dissipation will occur in the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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