WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I see spotty development from Taylorsville to Sparta,NC per NWS Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 People need to go ahead and call it a night, don't be freaking out...follow the GFS, it's handling the feature just fine and has since Day 1. GFS shows a strong 4-8 inch rainfall track along and just north of the low track... Just because we're 6-12 hours delayed does not mean we will have empty rain gauges come Wednesday...you gotta remember that this storm never had a chance to grow a large inner rain core like you have with a hurricane...we'll have to wait for Lee to make his approach and those areas close to track will fall into the deformation zone on the north and northwest quad... Also again...gotta remember, Lee is going through the night time consolidation. He will begin to spread back out tomorrow and then do the exact same thing tomorrow night. North Georgia and the Western Carolinas could be in that sweet spot 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It amazes me that GSP has not put out flood watches out for Iredell and Mecklenburg counties with HPC and Weather channel coming out with these maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Channel 2 in Atlanta showed a map that shows about 1/2--1 1/2" total rainfall from Lee. I think that's going to be about right. The heaviest rain will be north and west of the track of the low. The GFS output is much lighter on the east and southest side (Atlanta and south and east of there). Guys in Atlanta and south will not get another decent rain band until probably Tuesday morning. Enjoy Labor Day! If you are south and east of ATL, your outside activities may be mostly dry. That 1 1/2" will be in the northwest suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 You guys should take a step back from the edge of the cliff, it's not over yet. Yeah I totally agree. It's amazing how fast the weenies fall off the boart. It's like winter all over again. Thank God it isn't winter, some of you would be taking a cliff dive. NWS only has me at 30% chance of showers. And we have been having light rain here for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 SPC's outlooks for Monday and Tuesday shows a pretty decent threat of supercells. Be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm beginning to wonder the same. From all that I have seen, the upslope was to begin after 02Z (10pm EDT) once the flow into the mountains increased to over 20kts, the highest all day. But, radar returns still look paltry down south and I remain with 0.00" today. Now we have the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS, along with the 01Z RUC, all drastically cutting precip here in the mountains and especially east near CLT. By about 50% from what I could tell at first quick glance. That's not to say we won't be measuring rain in "inches", but more like 2-4" through Friday, rather than the 10" that was originally projected. I'll give it 12-18 more hours, and see what radar is looking like, before I begin to think this event will really be for central and eastern TN (along with AL and MS) and not the Carolina's. If the nam is right some places in SC may be lucky to get .50 of an inch out of this. Beginning to look as if our drought will hardly be touched SE of I-85. Beginning to think the same thing now. The Euro and 6z runs are much drier, esp. for most of SC and central and southern GA, where widespread less than inch totals show up. The rough dividing zone of the heaviest rain should be north and west of 85, but its looking more and more like the really heavy totals will be mostly west of the Apps, so I'd cut my totals in western NC and ne GA some, and really shave them down in most of SC and east of the mountains in NC. For my own area I've lowered my expectations from 5" totals to 2.5" totals this week. Roughly 3" to 5" in most of western NC mountains. The forcing on the east side of the mountains with the wedge front has been reduced a lot for NC, and focused more toward Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It amazes me that GSP has not put out flood watches out for Iredell and Mecklenburg counties with HPC and Weather channel coming out with these maps Here is a portion of the morning AFD from GSP. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT FEATURE DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND THIS MAY KEEP CELLS TRAINING NWD AS IT SLIDES EAST. THE QPF BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES EASTWARD OVER THE PIEDMONT. THUS...THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WILL ALSO HAVE A FLOOD THREAT. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER INTO THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Yea, I'm not at ALL happy with what I'm seeing so far. I expected to wake up to rain and all I've had is .02" since sundown yesterday. If this doesn't materialize, it will be one of the biggest busts I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 2100 CDT Last Night -- About the time I was last checking on the storm, it was a bit NW of Baton Rouge, and slightly ESE of the central Louisiana city of Alexandria. 2200 CDT Last Night -- NHC issued its last update on Lee. 0500 CDT Today -- The center of what circulation is left of Lee has moved well east of where it was before I went to bed. This can currently (at 0520 CDT) in the following floater loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html The center has passed Baton Rouge to the north and we are almost out of the center to the SW. At NHC's last update, movement was ENE at 7 mph. At this time the IR Flash loop from the NHC satellite images page ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html ) shows some Gulf moisture still being pulled up into northern Florida, southern AL and southern GA, as the widespread reach of Lee still hangs on. For now those outer bands are still coming. Looks like the Atlantic SE states still have a good chance at decent rainfall from where I'm watching. You guys hang in there. It's not over for you by a long shot. And frankly, I'm glad Lee is getting out of my area. I'm quite happy to let you take it from here. I've had enough of Lee already. LOL (I had to be out working in it all weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I had to double check the date after reading the posts from last night. Carbon copy of every snow threat around here, people need to relax and be thankful for whatever rain does fall. My grass is brown and crispy so i think it will be happy if only .10 qpf falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Here is the 5-day HPC prediction for rainfall amounts. Beginning at 00Z today and going through Friday until Saturday at 00Z. You guys in the east look really good if this comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 If it goes more east we're good here, he's just takin' his time about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 If it goes more east we're good here, he's just takin' his time about it! Yep. Patience is a virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Latest HPC Map for days 1 - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The 4 AM CDT (0900Z) HPC advisory # 15 on Lee: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=LEE&adnum=15&dt=2011090509&status=remnants From the Discussion and 48-hour Outlook: LEE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS IT HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOL AND DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING THE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN LOCATIONS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Latest HPC Map for days 1 - 3 They're going pretty high east of the mtns in SC and NC I think. Has me at between 6" and 7", which I'd love to see happen, but I'm skeptical of that much along the 85 corridor between AHN GSP and CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 They're going pretty high east of the mtns in SC and NC I think. Has me at between 6" and 7", which I'd love to see happen, but I'm skeptical of that much along the 85 corridor between AHN GSP and CLT area. I was pretty understanding of their maps from yesterday being way overdone because of what the models were showing, but if these 12z maps from the HPC aren't at least in the ballpark east of the mountains in NC especially it's going to be a pretty horrible bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I was pretty understanding of their maps from yesterday being way overdone because of what the models were showing, but if these 12z maps from the HPC aren't at least in the ballpark east of the mountains in NC especially it's going to be a pretty horrible bust. Well, so far from 8am Sunday through 9am Monday, I have received 0.01". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 From a nowcast perspective I think the HPC axis of heaviest precip is a tad too far east. Radar shows heaviest rainfall on a line on Chattanooga-Knoxville line. BTW, the Huntsville radar isnt doing much justice at all to the rainfall rates in the Chattanooga area. Way underdone. CHA has had 3.00" in the past 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 SPC updating convective outlook to moderate risk for today. Includes most of East AL / West-Central GA http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md2130.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow....mod. risk for today. Wasn't expecting that out of Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I was pretty understanding of their maps from yesterday being way overdone because of what the models were showing, but if these 12z maps from the HPC aren't at least in the ballpark east of the mountains in NC especially it's going to be a pretty horrible bust. To be honest its always really tough to forecast rain amounts in the Carolinas, for a bunch of reasons. I've seen enormous busts on the bigger events that are progged. Just last year, several runs of the GFS and NAM and ECM all had the foothills of NC to be the heart of a major flood event, which never happened. Several runs had 10" around my area to Spartanburg, or between here and Asheville. Every one eventually bought into it, self included. I had just over 2" in several days for the final total, and even only .50" to 1" around northern Spartanburg , up to Rutherford County NC, which is a far cry from 9" Turns out, the heavy rain fell in the least expected spot. The complete opposite happened from what was expected, and the coast got 15" to 20". Pretty decent shadow showed up in the foothills and northern Upstate, a relative min. of rain there. I'm always skeptical of major rain events in this immediate area, outside of a strong El Nino system, or cutoff low travelling along 85. At first I was thinking similar amounts to Fay from 2008, but on this side of the mountains, probably less so now. Alabama and nw GA and eastern TN should bear the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 From a nowcast perspective I think the HPC axis of heaviest precip is a tad too far east. Radar shows heaviest rainfall on a line on Chattanooga-Knoxville line. BTW, the Huntsville radar isnt doing much justice at all to the rainfall rates in the Chattanooga area. Way underdone. CHA has had 3.00" in the past 3 hours. Remember, it's for three days. With just a hair more push from the front maybe we can get Lee to move a little more east and get that axis over me. I think throughout the day you'll see that area gradually push east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Was getting a little worried about the rain until I looked at Steves (DaculaWeather) Southeast wide view radar. Hpc may be a little over done for some but there is a bunch of moisture in the SE & plumes of moisture surging in from the gulf over AL & the FL Panhandle. I am not an expert but it seems to me that most of us are in for a good soaking at least. Thanks for the radar Steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Not my idea of a fun day.....constant rain....then on the look out for short-lead-time tornadoes. You pro mets on here, try to keep us informed if you are near your computers today....I don't know about anyone else, but I'm still a little gun shy from this past spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow....mod. risk for today. Wasn't expecting that out of Lee. The sun has been peaking through a good bit the last hour...wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Cloudy, mist, damp, and light fog. NWS Blacksburg this morning has upped the totals across Wilkes to 7.5 to 8.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The sun has been peaking through a good bit the last hour...wasn't expecting that. hmmmm....did you read gsp's afd? maybe thats not all bad lol. ... If for whatever reason some breaks in the overcast develop into NE Georgia and the upstate of SC...watch out. Think the slight risk looks good and a mention will be made in the severe weather potential statement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Sun is out in full force now..... im liking our chances for storms today which should help with rain totals for us east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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