QVectorman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 eh...maybe we will get to see a fujiwhara dance between the two! Too bad I don't have the 6 hour intervals to see it on the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 eh...maybe we will get to see a fujiwhara dance between the two! Too bad I don't have the 6 hour intervals to see it on the ECMWF It bounces so fast between the two frames that I can't actually grasp what's happening with the two systems. I was using Allen's model page to get out to 240 hrs. I'm very low on experience with tropical weather and the effect of the atmosphere on a storm out there in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 000 WTNT32 KNHC 310836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011 ...KATIA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 39.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 There is a system supposedly coming out of the gulf on both the euro and gfs (0z) that show a feature coming from the gulf into the FL, SC, GA, NC regions. The 06Z GFS shows this as a weak system developing in the N GOM, traveling across the northern LF panhandle and meandering up the eastern seaboard as a weak, probably subtropical or hybrid system, producing moderate to heavy rain along and west of I95. Meanwhile, out of the corner of my eye while watching that, I see Katia spanks the crap out of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 06Z GFS shows this as a weak system developing in the N GOM, traveling across the northern LF panhandle and meandering up the eastern seaboard as a weak, probably subtropical or hybrid system, producing moderate to heavy rain along and west of I95. Meanwhile, out of the corner of my eye while watching that, I see Katia spanks the crap out of Bermuda. Exactly what I see. Much needed rain down here in the deep SE while we wait to see what Katia does. Even if Katia doesn't come close to SC, the feature from the gulf looks amazing to help the drought down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 From earlier. Decent curved band partially wrapping around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 this one shows the archipelago thermocline thingie http://www.aoml.noaa...ne/data/at.html Recovering nicely. Your highly technical term "thingie" made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Exactly what I see. Much needed rain down here in the deep SE while we wait to see what Katia does. Even if Katia doesn't come close to SC, the feature from the gulf looks amazing to help the drought down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Kinda boring and useless, but: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I think the chances of Katia coming anywhere near the CONUS are getting even slimmer than yesterday. It would not surprise me to see a track farther SW in the day 3-6 period given some of the model guidance on track and strength of the ridge - but given increasing consensus toward a big positively tilted longwave trough developing over the eastern CONUS toward the end of the period, it is hard to see how even with a farther SW track in the shorter term this system can avoid full recurvature well E of the East Coast. People looking for a CONUS impact would probably be better served to be looking at the Gulf potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Kinda boring and useless, but: Unless you are a Bermudian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Meh....send Katia out to sea (or slow it down a lot) and the GOM "thingie" into TX.....serves 4 purposes: Josh has an easy chase area..... TX could use a little rain (DUH).... EC could use an extra week to drain.... and my family and I are headed to Disney World this weekend and returning next Friday.....wouldn't mind having a happy wife and kids!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Meh....send Katia out to sea (or slow it down a lot) and the GOM "thingie" into TX.....serves 4 purposes: Josh has an easy chase area..... TX could use a little rain (DUH).... EC could use an extra week to drain.... and my family and I are headed to Disney World this weekend and returning next Friday.....wouldn't mind having a happy wife and kids!!! This. We're dyin' down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This on has a fishy smell to it if you ask me. Unless the trough doesn't materialize or it slows alot and misses it, it's going for Bermuda or the high seas. Very few landfalls have came out of storms in Katia's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Nobody has noticed this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It was here a few minutes ago, and then it was deleted for some odd reason, the southern cluster looks to pass close to the 70W, 25N benchmark, or even south of that. This is well SW of the latest NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It was here a few minutes ago, and then it was deleted for some odd reason, the southern cluster looks to pass close to the 70W, 25N benchmark, or even south of that. This is well SW of the latest NHC track. It was deleted because the quality of the models going W is crap. The GFDN and NOGAPS are useless... as is the GFDL and HWRF at forecasting long range synoptic features. Notice how the one model going towards the NW is the only good one on there... the GFS. I seriously hope we don't have to go over this every single day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Nobody has noticed this? Note the other half reliable global, the UK Met, while South of the GFS, is starting a Northwest turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I get the point, I'm here to learn and apparantly I'm not the only one that thought this was a legit model shift. The only other point I wanted to make is that if I'm reading this correctly, most of the GFS ensemble members are SW of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It was here a few minutes ago, and then it was deleted for some odd reason, the southern cluster looks to pass close to the 70W, 25N benchmark, or even south of that. This is well SW of the latest NHC track. probably hardly worth noting, but ukmet turning a bit north at the end of the period, vs the other southern models bending west. so at least to my eyes on the chart there we have recurve potential at 55 and 60 indicated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It was deleted because the quality of the models going W is crap. The GFDN and NOGAPS are useless... as is the GFDL and HWRF at forecasting long range synoptic features. Notice how the one model going towards the NW is the only good one on there... the GFS. I seriously hope we don't have to go over this every single day. Really? I didn't realize this board's moderators delete posts that show models certain meteorologists don't like or don't believe to be correct. GFDN and NOGAPs are global computer models that predict tropical cyclones and/or other weather systems am I right? I reviewed the forum rules and didn't find any relating to what you just posted above and I believe he explained what he/she saw on the map. Weatherside rules No politics/religious discussion No foul language No personal attacks/OT arguing Try to stay on topic Attack the idea, not the poster Spell out your forecast/thinking/opposing viewpoint clearly If you post a map, explain it Keep banter to a minimum during Storm Mode* (see below) Just trying to understand what is post worthy here since I am new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I get the point, I'm here to learn and apparantly I'm not the only one that thought this was a legit model shift. Don't give up all hope. Who knows how the poorly forecast disturbance that might form somewhere in the GOM in a few days will effect the trough that probably recurves Katia. Maybe the trough captures future Lee and winds up taking on a less positive tilt than forecasted. Grasping at straws, sure, but I am glass 1/64th full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Really? I didn't realize this board's moderators delete posts that show models certain meteorologists don't like or don't believe to be correct. GFDN and NOGAPs are global computer models that predict tropical cyclones and/or other weather systems am I right? I reviewed the forum rules and didn't find any relating to what you just posted above and I believe he explained what he/she saw on the map. Weatherside rules No politics/religious discussion No foul language No personal attacks/OT arguing Try to stay on topic Attack the idea, not the poster Spell out your forecast/thinking/opposing viewpoint clearly If you post a map, explain it Keep banter to a minimum during Storm Mode* (see below) That would be assuming the GFDN and NOGAPS could be held to the same standard as the GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET when talking about a situation like this. Not the bolded in the rules above. This falls under that. It's a terrible idea with terrible reasoning, and too many terrible ideas clutter up these main threads which are meant to be cleaner. Also, the NOGAPS is an old global computer model... but the GFDN is not a global model... it is a hurricane model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I get the point, I'm here to learn and apparantly I'm not the only one that thought this was a legit model shift. The only other point I wanted to make is that if I'm reading this correctly, most of the GFS ensemble members are SW of the op. this may be true but almost every single one still shows recurve. Why is this so hard to accept? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I thought the GFDN was the GFDL with NoGaps initialization and BC, but its worse than just being intialized with an older, poorer performing model. It is an older version of the GFDL with one less nested grid, so it really isn't to be relied on. A couple of the 6Z ensemble perturbations try to stay South of the ridge, but it isn't looking super positive right now for ECUSA action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 this may be true but almost every single one still shows recurve. Why is this so hard to accept? Who said it's hard to accept? It's a simple observation and since model skill declines the further out in time you go, its possible that the end results could end up looking much different on future runs. In other words, I'm just noting that they are SW of the op during the next few days, which is during the period of highest model skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Who said it's hard to accept? It's a simple observation and since model skill declines the further out in time you go, its possible that the end results could end up looking much different on future runs. In other words, I'm just noting that they are SW of the op during the next few days, which is during the period of highest model skill. except for the fact the the GFS ensembles don't have much skill relative to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Who said it's hard to accept? It's a simple observation and since model skill declines the further out in time you go, its possible that the end results could end up looking much different on future runs. In other words, I'm just noting that they are SW of the op during the next few days, which is during the period of highest model skill. You're obviously looking for any indication that this might hit NYC. Which is fine – I think a lot of us are grasping at straws right now. But 5 and 10 mile jolts to the N and S five days out for a storm that won't become an issue for a week and a half don't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Who said it's hard to accept? It's a simple observation and since model skill declines the further out in time you go, its possible that the end results could end up looking much different on future runs. In other words, I'm just noting that they are SW of the op during the next few days, which is during the period of highest model skill. I wonder if that has anything to do with each pertubation having a slightly stronger Bermuda High? Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 except for the fact the the GFS ensembles don't have much skill relative to the op. We need dtk to explain lower resolution and older version physics, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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