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Hurricane Katia

Ruls

By Ruls,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

The NHC initiated advisories on Irene at 58.5W. They initiated advisories on TD12 at 26.3W. That's a long way apart. I'm sure by the time Katia is approaching 60W we'll have a lot better idea of where she may go.

Okay... thanks for the random information. But, that did not help answer my questions in the slightest. Appreciate the attempt, though.

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k***

k***

Posted
Posted

Based on latitude and longitude or origination...at least that is my understanding and the history behind tropical cyclones.

Wrong...looks like they are weighted this way...but when DT is doing your heavy lifting I guess you don't need to know anything

The weightings on current location, intensity, and time of year in the current routine are as follows:

  • Location: 0.025 point for every km away from current location
  • Intensity: 0.5 point for every kt away from current intensity
  • Time of year: 0.075 point for every day away from current date

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it*has*an*i

it*has*an*i

Posted
Posted

Okay... thanks for the random information. But, that did not help answer my questions in the slightest. Appreciate the attempt, though.

I believe they are saying that this one is being tracked from near the Cape Verde's and Irene wasn't being tracked till 58W. #12 is miles and days farther out and no way the NHC or anybody else can make a comfortable call on whether #12 will affect the US or not. When #12 gets in Irene's starting position of 58W they will have a better Idea but remember that Irene's first forecasts implied a S FL landfall so they were'n't very accurate either.

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

I believe they are saying that this one is being tracked from near the Cape Verde's and Irene wasn't being tracked till 58W. #12 is miles and days farther out and no way the NHC or anybody else can make a comfortable call on whether #12 will affect the US or not. When #12 gets in Irene's starting position of 58W they will have a better Idea but remember that Irene's first forecasts implied a S FL landfall so they were'n't very accurate either.

I think perhaps I do not know how to ask the question I have in my mind, then. I'm just trying to understand what the models were so confident in, with Irene, that showed nearly 30 US landfalls in a row. Yes, they started out in the Gulf/FL, but they started in on the EC, too, like what... 5 days out? The models consistently showed her as a major hurricane, even over Shredderola, and consistently put her into the EC, even way out in fantasy land. I am just trying to figure out what was making them so confident in that, and what the difference may be for TD12, in which confidence is not as strong, and there are cases to be made for both a possible threat and a fish storm. I am just trying to better understand long-range forecasting. I can obviously understand and see with my own two eyes that Irene initialized much more to the west... that does not help me to understand anything that I am trying to. Did I better explain here, or no?

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Wrong...looks like they are weighted this way...but when DT is doing your heavy lifting I guess you don't need to know anything

The weightings on current location, intensity, and time of year in the current routine are as follows:

  • Location: 0.025 point for every km away from current location
  • Intensity: 0.5 point for every kt away from current intensity
  • Time of year: 0.075 point for every day away from current date

You realize i said MY understanding or no comprende? Sorry ..the track i posted was posted at 4 AM and had nothing to do with DT. You do realize that the ECM showing what it shows just came out at 12 Z today? So try again! If a pro met happens to back up my thoughts that i have been talking about since this was an invest so be it..

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k***

k***

Posted
Posted

You realize i said MY understanding or no comprende? Sorry ..the track i posted was posted at 4 AM and had nothing to do with DT. You do realize that the ECM showing what it shows just came out at 12 Z today? So try again! If a pro met happens to back up my thoughts that i have been talking about since this was an invest so be it..

That means DT must have poached his thoughts from you...he used the same map and made the top ten analogs a central piece of his Katia hype.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wxrisk.com%2F%3Fp%3D2154&h=mAQCdwBTeAQBbvhIhNAejTx1_XEFRWX-gFVib19n3cATNww

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

I do not even see a 10 day tracking map by DT...so once again...keep trying!

You have a link to your winter 2010-2011 forecast in your sig.

Not sure why people are clamoring for analogs at this point... it's a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic that is DAYS away from seriously being discussed as a potential U.S. landfalling system. Do yourself a favor and step away from the models for a few days.

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

Posted
Posted

I think perhaps I do not know how to ask the question I have in my mind, then. I'm just trying to understand what the models were so confident in, with Irene, that showed nearly 30 US landfalls in a row. Yes, they started out in the Gulf/FL, but they started in on the EC, too, like what... 5 days out? The models consistently showed her as a major hurricane, even over Shredderola, and consistently put her into the EC, even way out in fantasy land. I am just trying to figure out what was making them so confident in that, and what the difference may be for TD12, in which confidence is not as strong, and there are cases to be made for both a possible threat and a fish storm. I am just trying to better understand long-range forecasting. I can obviously understand and see with my own two eyes that Irene initialized much more to the west... that does not help me to understand anything that I am trying to. Did I better explain here, or no?

OK, here's how I can best break down what you are asking as far as differences.

First off, intensity. The global models were consistent and nearly unanimous in forecasting Irene to become a significant tropical cyclone. They are doing the same for TD12.

Now, track. Yes, the models showed 30 consecutive runs into the US - but not all into the EC. Many were in the Gulf, some were in to FL. The models were consistent in showing a strong upper ridge far enough west to guide Irene in the general direction of the US, and were showing the development occurring far enough W for it to go into the U.S. With regard to TD12, if the EC were about 20 degrees farther east in longitude, we would probably be able to say in about 5 days that the models were showing 30 US landfalls in a row. But, the EC is not 20 degrees farther east, and TD12 is developing farther east, we will have to watch the system longer, and it will be more difficult climatologically for it to get far enough west to threaten the CONUS.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Now, track. Yes, the models showed 30 consecutive runs into the US - but not all into the EC. Many were in the Gulf, some were in to FL. The models were consistent in showing a strong upper ridge far enough west to guide Irene in the general direction of the US, and were showing the development occurring far enough W for it to go into the U.S. With regard to TD12, if the EC were about 20 degrees farther east in longitude, we would probably be able to say in about 5 days that the models were showing 30 US landfalls in a row. But, the EC is not 20 degrees farther east, and TD12 is developing farther east, we will have to watch the system longer, and it will be more difficult climatologically for it to get far enough west to threaten the CONUS.

Yep, good post. The upper level flow is progressive across the CONUS and there is no blocking ridge over the Davis Straits to help lock in a favorable pattern for a US landfall like we had with Irene. Could TD 12 thread the needle and take a perfect track? Sure. But it's not very likely, at this time.

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JoshMO

JoshMO

Posted
Posted

where do you people come from?

And where does your attitude come from? Can people not post THEIR viewpoint (whether, in your opinion, it's based on sound meteorology or not) without some snarky comment from you?

This board is for the most part enjoyable, but more so than the IMBY posts or wishcasting - the arrogance of many of the professional meteorologists gets old. As a fellow met, we should all check ourselves!

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Torontoweather14

Torontoweather14

Posted
Posted

New member here. FIRST POST! Anyways, here is the latest hear analysis map surrounding Tropical Depression 12:

image.gif

Definitely not the most conducive conditions shear-wise surrounding TD 12, but given the current projected track it should become more conducive generally over the next several days.

Latest steering winds:

wm7dlm2.GIF

As TD 12 should remain relatively stable in terms of strength over the next few days with no rapid intensification to hurricane status at least for the next few days, it should continue to follow the general steering currents at the 500-850mb level. having said this, it should continue to move generally westward to WNW over the next severe days.

Latest SAL/Dray Air:

splitE.jpg

Currently there doesn't appear to be too much substantial dry air around TD 12, but there is still some noticeable shear to its NNE as well as to its west and WNW in front of its general track. Currently though, this should not affect the strengthening of TD12 significantly, but may still slightly inhibit TD12 from rapidly intensifying over the next few days.

Water Vapour(Upper level):

wvhi.jpg

Mid-level:

wvmid.jpg

Water vapour around of and in front of TD 12's project track is also not looking too bad with a generally moist environment with some slight dry areas to its WNW, but currently I don;t think it should be too much of a concern in terms of inhibiting TD12's strengthening over the next few days.

That is all for now. Hope to continue posting as much as possible!

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

OK, here's how I can best break down what you are asking as far as differences.

First off, intensity. The global models were consistent and nearly unanimous in forecasting Irene to become a significant tropical cyclone. They are doing the same for TD12.

Now, track. Yes, the models showed 30 consecutive runs into the US - but not all into the EC. Many were in the Gulf, some were in to FL. The models were consistent in showing a strong upper ridge far enough west to guide Irene in the general direction of the US, and were showing the development occurring far enough W for it to go into the U.S. With regard to TD12, if the EC were about 20 degrees farther east in longitude, we would probably be able to say in about 5 days that the models were showing 30 US landfalls in a row. But, the EC is not 20 degrees farther east, and TD12 is developing farther east, we will have to watch the system longer, and it will be more difficult climatologically for it to get far enough west to threaten the CONUS.

Okay, that is very helpful, thank you. So, besides being much further west, it had an unarguably strong ridge. The ridge is what I was trying to figure out. So, regardless of TD 12's location, are they able to sense ridge placement this far out, or is that the major problem with long-range forecasting?

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

Yep, good post. The upper level flow is progressive across the CONUS and there is no blocking ridge over the Davis Straits to help lock in a favorable pattern for a US landfall like we had with Irene. Could TD 12 thread the needle and take a perfect track? Sure. But it's not very likely, at this time.

That is what I have a hard time understanding. The upper level flow that you've talked about and ridges/troughs. I'm starting to better understand ridges/troughs-- I THINK... but this upper level flow that you've talked about-- how would this help or hinder TD 12 from making an EC landfall? Is that because that is what she would be steered by, as a stronger/major cane?

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

Posted
Posted

Okay, that is very helpful, thank you. So, besides being much further west, it had an unarguably strong ridge. The ridge is what I was trying to figure out. So, regardless of TD 12's location, are they able to sense ridge placement this far out, or is that the major problem with long-range forecasting?

It's a major problem with long range forecasting of tropical cyclones. TCs are primarily guided by ridges while in the tropics - once they get deeply involved with the flow associated with a trough, it's usually being pulled out of the tropics and recurved. There have been a number of situations in recent years where the models underestimated the strength of the ridge and a system moved farther south and west than anticipated. Realistically, the earliest that TD12 could be any kind of threat to the mainland US is probably about 12 days out (?), and that is just beyond the scope of any model to accurately predict the trough/ridge strength and positions (needless to say track of the TC up to that point) to give you any kind of true dea of where a TC is going to go. The best you can do (IMO) is to look at the climatology and the mean pattern and come up with a probabilistic estimate of a very broad impact (e.g., landfall somewhere in the U.S.) You have already seen some good posters give you that kind of an idea already on TD12.

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

Posted
Posted

It's a major problem with long range forecasting of tropical cyclones. TCs are primarily guided by ridges while in the tropics - once they get deeply involved with the flow associated with a trough, it's usually being pulled out of the tropics and recurved. There have been a number of situations in recent years where the models underestimated the strength of the ridge and a system moved farther south and west than anticipated. Realistically, the earliest that TD12 could be any kind of threat to the mainland US is probably about 12 days out (?), and that is just beyond the scope of any model to accurately predict the trough/ridge strength and positions (needless to say track of the TC up to that point) to give you any kind of true dea of where a TC is going to go. The best you can do (IMO) is to look at the climatology and the mean pattern and come up with a probabilistic estimate of a very broad impact (e.g., landfall somewhere in the U.S.) You have already seen some good posters give you that kind of an idea already on TD12.

Great, thank you for your response (and everyone else, as well).

Are there statistics somewhere which would show how accurately the global models or hurricane models forecast the strength of these ridges and troughs?

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