HoarfrostHubb Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 It was never going anywhere... The usage was a miss-allocation all along. And, just because someone is educated in a field and voices a veracious opinion from a position of that education and knowledge, does not make them an egotist - what the devil was that all about. OMG - Duck! There's giant egotistical ridge over eastern N/A between 96-144 hours - go figure. . Dude... you just said drop it... The science discussion is very interesting. Keep that part up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 John, its ok to disagee with someone, you just come accross in the wrong way sometimes that sounds "holier than thou". I like to read opposing opinions. Its what advances the science. That being said, this cool down will be transient and we will be right back to above normal temps next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Dude... you just said drop it... The science discussion is very interesting. Keep that part up. No - i said drop the pettiness. That's different. I don't mind the discussion with Ginx. In fact, it's been civil - he's never gone out of his way to call me egotistical. again, read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 The GFS at 5-6 days out had me in the upper 80s the day it topped 100. I wouldn't trust anything beyond D4-5 but let's just say this pattern doesn't not play into GFS's wheelhouse. It's been a very hot month of July for SNE. That's verification. Euro is still king. Agreed-- the GFS lost this last heatwave for awhile too-- sort of like it does with winter storms lol. All of our local mets are talking about very hot temps and high humidity thursday-sunday next week. They have us at the same temps as they did with the last heat wave from a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Dude... you just said drop it... The science discussion is very interesting. Keep that part up. John, its ok to disagee with someone, you just come accross in the wrong way sometimes that sounds "holier than thou". I like to read opposing opinions. Its what advances the science. That being said, this cool down will be transient and we will be right back to above normal temps next weekend. No - i said drop the pettiness. That's different. I don't mind the discussion with Ginx. In fact, it's been civil - he's never gone out of his way to call me egotistical. again, read... It's just that without having the context of body language, tone of voice, inflection, etc-- we make mountains out of molehills. In person, this would have been a very friendly discussion. Just my 2 cents, but I dont think any offense was intended by John or anyone else. People just like to read in between the lines sometimes; just a misunderstanding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 It's unfortunately more likely coincidence in this ... 1) The science of recurving cyclones even states in hard text that the correlation is primarily autumnal (September/October) for reasons I tried to explain, you ignored; and then claimed you understand this stuff at the level of advanced meteorology because you have an Environ Science degree and some other course work? That may be, but you then don't demonstrate you really have that understanding and the basics of atmospheric science behind it. Instead hard-headedly bang your head on this typhoon going N in the west Pac. That is fundamentally wrong during this particular season, and doesn't even apply right now because you are missing using the science on the matter. 2) This trough this week is hugely transient in nature. The recurve refers to typhoons that complete symmetric phase transition and completely evolve into extra-tropical cyclones. Those that then have enough residence in the large scale circulation system to significantly alter the R-wave numbers/configuration from the W-Pac to off the E Coast, being the impetus behind the study. That's not happening now. One of the reasons the correlation in point 1 is correct is because there is a statistical overlap in frequency (max in those two months) over the top of seasonally increasing ambient geopotential gradient - cyclogenesis potential is thus enhanced, and typhoons gaining latitude can than arrive into potential baroclinicity - none of which is the case in July! Nor, in this situation leading. The result in proper use of the science is a meaningful pattern change featuring the western N/ American ridge, eastern N/ American trough (PNAP pattern), which is not happening. Even NCEP says that lowering heights and cyclonic flow is favored into the PAC N/W, with building heights THIS WEEK in the east. And they are right. There is an east-based negative NAO right now, the impact of which is occasional trough digging into the Maritimes, and as they first pass over the top of our latitude, they are suppressing the heights and allowing shallow cold fronts to penetrate. That's all this is. The native pattern from the Pac through N/A has not really changed, certainly not in the vein of that science. Folks, I think you will find that heat returns to whatever anomaly uncertain toward Th/Frid. I thought that the influence from recurving WPAC typhoons emanated from the latent heat release pumping up ridging, not from the x-trop cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Does any of the guidance suggest heat returning in a fashion similar to this bast spell? Is the central part of the country as hot as it was prior to our super torch? Today was certainly a relief for many with highs in the low to mid 80s and drier air. The sun was certainly strong at Fenway. I look like one of Vim Toot's red Maine hot dogs (it was Maine Day today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I have no idea what this means but in reality sinceJune 1 St we have had some warmth lately but keep in mind below for the entire month of June. June in SNE is a sometimes summer month. This summer while starting one way has morphed way differently. Not a problem, to me it makes a robust winter with plenty of snow more likely. Looking at the last 4 summers which hit 100 or higher at BOS (1995, 2002, 2010, 2011), the first 3 had huge winters. 1975 had a hot spell of 100+ and winter was not as robust but still above normal snow. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 June in SNE is a sometimes summer month. This summer while starting one way has morphed way differently. Not a problem, to me it makes a robust winter with plenty of snow more likely. Looking at the last 4 summers which hit 100 or higher at BOS (1995, 2002, 2010, 2011), the first 3 had huge winters. 1975 had a hot spell of 100+ and winter was not as robust but still above normal snow. Embrace it. Somewhere in Hubbardston there is a pants tent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 June in SNE is a sometimes summer month. This summer while starting one way has morphed way differently. Not a problem, to me it makes a robust winter with plenty of snow more likely. Looking at the last 4 summers which hit 100 or higher at BOS (1995, 2002, 2010, 2011), the first 3 had huge winters. 1975 had a hot spell of 100+ and winter was not as robust but still above normal snow. Embrace it. Great point, Ray and I had a long convo on this last night. I believe, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 No - i said drop the pettiness. That's different. I don't mind the discussion with Ginx. In fact, it's been civil - he's never gone out of his way to call me egotistical. again, read... Like I said, your opinion, my opinion, that's all. Torch returns next weekend but no comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 June in SNE is a sometimes summer month. This summer while starting one way has morphed way differently. Not a problem, to me it makes a robust winter with plenty of snow more likely. Looking at the last 4 summers which hit 100 or higher at BOS (1995, 2002, 2010, 2011), the first 3 had huge winters. 1975 had a hot spell of 100+ and winter was not as robust but still above normal snow. Embrace it. And you can toss in years like 1955, 1966, 1977 and 1993 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 And you can toss in years like 1955, 1966, 1977 and 1993 for us. I posted about the lawnmower eyes looking at some lithe hottie in a bikini during the hottest day of the 1966 event. 1977 also topped 100 here and that winter was not too shabby...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I posted about the lawnmower eyes looking at some lithe hottie in a bikini during the hottest day of the 1966 event. 1977 also topped 100 here and that winter was non too shabby...lol. 1977 wasn't a hot summer, overall, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 1977 wasn't a hot summer, overall, though: Can't dispute facts I guess. I didn't experience that summer here so I can't give you an impression from living it. This certainly has the "feel" of 1995, 2002, not quite 2010 but if we stay above normal through August that changes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 1977 wasn't a hot summer, overall, though: Yup, but he is just using years in which it hit 100 I believe. Did we have 30 90 degree days that summer? Ive been looking for the 90 degree per year list lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Can't dispute facts I guess. I didn't experience that summer here so I can't give you an impression from living it. This certainly has the "feel" of 1995, 2002, not quite 2010 but if we stay above normal through August that changes things. It depends on how you look at it I guess.... two-three weeks made that whole summer what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 It was awfully hot for a few weeks in July as I recall, but I was in Europe and arrived home the day it broke. It went below normal then from about July 22nd on so that probably knocked down the three month average good. 1977 wasn't a hot summer, overall, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Yup, but he is just using years in which it hit 100 I believe. Did we have 30 90 degree days that summer? Ive been looking for the 90 degree per year list lol. I doubt it dude...it was a pretty cool summer outside a couple weeks in July. Central Park did hit 104F on 7/21 after hitting 102F on 7/19. Three days in that stretch were 100+ at KNYC. Not surprising it wasn't a hot summer overall though with the El Niño ramping up a bit in time for Winter 77-78. Both 76-77 and 77-78 were weak Niños in the nascent +PDO phase but 77-78 was definitely the beefier of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I doubt it dude...it was a pretty cool summer outside a couple weeks in July. Central Park did hit 104F on 7/21 after hitting 102F on 7/19. Three days in that stretch were 100+ at KNYC. Not surprising it wasn't a hot summer overall though with the El Niño ramping up a bit in time for Winter 77-78. Both 76-77 and 77-78 were weak Niños in the nascent +PDO phase but 77-78 was definitely the beefier of the two. That right there makes it historic lol. We have to factor out all the tainted high min summers too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 78 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 64/62, I'll take Ginx's forecasting ftw. Incredible red and pink sky this sunrise. Red sky by morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 64/62, I'll take Ginx's forecasting ftw. Incredible red and pink sky this sunrise. Red sky by morning.... The typhoon had nothing to do with this minor warmdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 The typhoon had nothing to do with this minor warmdown ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 The typhoon had nothing to do with this minor warmdown Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 refreshing outside this morning, hopefully we get much needed rain, rest of the week looks summertastic, sun and 80s. Big, big heat rolling back in late week. 6 days left in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 64/61 here Minor warmdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 64/61 here Minor warmdown? I would imagine thats dead on normal for your location this time of day this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I would imagine thats dead on normal for your location this time of day this time of year? orh's normal low is 62 cant be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 orh's normal low is 62 cant be that far off. Right on. I just thought Blizzy's term warmdown was funny... BOX has a high of 73 here... Pretty muggy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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