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Trough returns next week


Ginx snewx

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In terms of that range, "90-100", it's rare to get 100 anyway... althought last year and this year may have some thinking it's easier - let us not be fooled. The longer term analysis shows it doesn't fit well into our climate package up at this latitude. 90 is easier, and though the term "big" is subjective, climate numbers would argue that heat in the 90-95, is big for our part of the country - although admittedly 97 is pegged imo.

certainly subjective.

BOS averages something like 13 or 14 90F+ days a year...i'm sure that means a spot like BDL is probably 17 or 18. so..."flirting with 90" as i was saying...is not a big deal, imo. i mean, average high at BDL is 85F. LOL.

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Bang away Blizzy!:

CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-261800-

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-

NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...

VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...

CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...

AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...

WEARE

1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING WILL

TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...INCLUDING THE GREATER

HARTFORD AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE

GREATER SPRINGFIELD AND WORCESTER AREAS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD

INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING JAFFREY...KEENE...

MANCHESTER AND NASHUA.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA FROM WEST TO

EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG TO

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE

PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST ACROSS

NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

They are targeting MRG and Tippy, too

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Bang away Blizzy!:

CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-261800-

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-

NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...

VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...

CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...

AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...

WEARE

1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING WILL

TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...INCLUDING THE GREATER

HARTFORD AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE

GREATER SPRINGFIELD AND WORCESTER AREAS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD

INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING JAFFREY...KEENE...

MANCHESTER AND NASHUA.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA FROM WEST TO

EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG TO

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE

PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST ACROSS

NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

They are targeting MRG and Tippy, too

Be sure to post this in the Mad Cheese wet blanket thread :whistle:

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...NERN STATES...

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD

FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NERN

STATES. FAVORABLE JET LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLDER

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH

POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE

EVENING HOURS.

Tor warning in NYS, too. Pretty nasty

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Ryan is on board

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ME...SRN/CNTRL NH...SERN NY...AND PORTIONS OF

MA/CT/RI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261734Z - 261900Z

A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER WRN ME...SRN/CNTRL NH...SERN NY AND

PORTIONS OF MA/CT/RI DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTIVE AND

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AT 17Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDINESS IS CLEARING

FROM W TO E ACROSS WRN ME SWD INTO MA/CT. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE

TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 70S...WHICH IS AIDING IN

BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASE IN MLCAPE VALUES /AROUND

500 J PER KG BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/. AS A

RESULT...STORMS OCCURRING TO THE W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO EXIT ERN

PORTIONS OF WW 686 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION...RECENT

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS

FAR S AS SERN NY. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OVER THE AREA...AN

INCREASE IN CAPE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE REGION /WITH MLCAPE VALUES

CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J PER KG/...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP

LAYER WLY SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40

KT/...WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED

FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

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