Trough returns next week

[Typhoon Tip]

AMOUTEG..nothing more than a minor cooldown early next with temps still slighty above and then another subtrpoical ridge and torch again late week. gonna be a brutal month folks. Grin and bear it

Hard to say... the extended Euro keeps wavering (what's new)... I do think however that the balance of the runs amid the various deterministic solutions are toward higher heights - a few of these runs are titanic, such as having most the CONUS under 594DM heights is bordering on absurd such as this 00z Euro solution from D 6-10. If that happens, it would be unwise to go with cooler regimes because the entire quatra-hemisphere is under a positive departure as a whole. But smoothing them out into a mean solution is moderately above normal height-wise. That doesn't have to mean big heat, per se, but can if details in the flow time well.

The CPC and CDC NAO values are modestly elevating, so therein is only a weak signal and not much of a corrective measure.

[yoda]

Hard to say... the extended Euro keeps wavering (what's new)... I do think however that the balance of the runs amid the various deterministic solutions are toward higher heights - a few of these runs are titanic, such as having most the CONUS under 594DM heights is bordering on absurd such as this 00z Euro solution from D 6-10. If that happens, it would be unwise to go with cooler regimes because the entire quatra-hemisphere is under a positive departure as a whole. But smoothing them out into a mean solution is moderately above normal height-wise. That doesn't have to mean big heat, per se, but can if details in the flow time well.

The CPC and CDC NAO values are modestly elevating, so therein is only a weak signal and not much of a corrective measure.

06z GFS, FWIW, shows a huge 594 DM ridge out in the Day 7-9 range, which would agree with the 00z EURO -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_216l.gif

[Typhoon Tip]

there's several papers out there that theorize the downstream effect of recurving typhoons can be felt in north america regardless of season...but it has some dependence upon the strength and orientation of the north pacific jet. the correlation is strongest in september but that essentially goes hand-in-hand with activity and strength of systems. part of the reason there isn't more summer correlation isn't necessarily owed to a wavelength issue as Tip might be suggesting but do the a lack of strong recurving typhoons in july and early august per climatology.

Dude, you're making my point! You're wrong also when you say "isn't necessarily owed to wavelenghth" - what do you think controls those wave lengths?

That is in part WHY I am right that summeer correlation is weak if at all.

Ginx is stuck in a feed-back loop that denies scientific logic; he wants to apply that recurve "theory" - which isn't LAW by way, just a theory - unilaterally and that, as I said in the first place, is improper.

I'm done. When you folks suffer the blood sweat and tears of advanced atmospheric dynamics, which includes coupled thermo and fluid dynamics models, then respond sounding as though you inherently understand those principles, we'll talk - until such time, think what you want and swim with the blind. I'm threw -

[Tropopause_Fold]

Dude, you're making my point! You're wrong also when you say "isn't necessarily owed to wavelenghth" - what do you think controls those wave lengths?

That is in part WHY I am right that summeer correlation is weak if at all.

Ginx is stuck in a feed-back loop that denies scientific logic; he wants to apply that recurve "theory" - which isn't LAW by way, just a theory - unilaterally and that, as I said in the first place, is improper.

I'm done. When you folks suffer the blood sweat and tears of advanced atmospheric dynamics, which includes coupled thermo and fluid dynamics models, then respond sounding as though you inherently understand those principles, we'll talk - until such time, think what you want and swim with the blind. I'm threw -

[Ginx snewx]

Dude, you're making my point! You're wrong also when you say "isn't necessarily owed to wavelenghth" - what do you think controls those wave lengths?

That is in part WHY I am right that summeer correlation is weak if at all.

Ginx is stuck in a feed-back loop that denies scientific logic; he wants to apply that recurve "theory" - which isn't LAW by way, just a theory - unilaterally and that, as I said in the first place, is improper.

I'm done. When you folks suffer the blood sweat and tears of advanced atmospheric dynamics, which includes coupled thermo and fluid dynamics models, then respond sounding as though you inherently understand those principles, we'll talk - until such time, think what you want and swim with the blind. I'm threw -

You do know I have a BS in Env Science and multiple Grad Level courses under my belt. Feed back this into your macro.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You do know I have a BS in Env Science and multiple Grad Level courses under my belt. Feed back this into your macro.

But, but, but, you don't have the red tag so you must not be edumacated.

[weathafella]

You do know I have a BS in Env Science and multiple Grad Level courses under my belt. Feed back this into your macro.

Well not sure Tip will be but this information impresses me!

[Typhoon Tip]

You do know I have a BS in Env Science and multiple Grad Level courses under my belt. Feed back this into your macro.

Your focus is not atmospheric science dude -

I don't discredit what you know, but you don't know what you are talking about presently.

I'm not holding any of this against you, btw - I do find it disrespectful, though, that you are so willing disregarding what I am trying to explain - to the point where you are even getting it because of you bias to see this cold pattern. Which isn't even there

It's stupid and I probably shouldn't even be making this post... later.

[Mica Vim Toot]

It's stupid and I probably shouldn't even be making this post... later.

Your most cogent thought this month.

You should have listened to that little voice instead of the usual clangor of hoots and whinnies you hear that you so often burden us morons with.

Vim Toot

[Mica Vim Toot]

Thread killer!

You're welcome.

Vim Toot!

[Tropopause_Fold]

Thread killer!

You're welcome.

Vim Toot!

Well played sir. Toot!

[ski MRG]

Your most cogent thought this month.

You should have listened to that little voice instead of the usual clangor of hoots and whinnies you hear that you so often burden us morons with.

Vim Toot

lol, kill shot to the verbose.

[OKpowdah]

Still showing extensive midlatitude warmth

[weathafella]

After we get through the death days, next week looks to feature a strong for the season LP to usher in some Canadian fresh cooler air. Models are similar with the trough with the GFS cookin a closed low. Sensible weather should be pleasant typical summer temps as we have had for the most part all summer.

Departures of July to date:

BOS: +4.6

ORH: +4.0

BDL: +2.8

PVD: +3.5

The bolded is puzzling.

Also......maybe 1-2 cool days but the pattern continues warm. Beware of using JB mythology too heavily.

[Logan11]

The 12Z GFS doesn't have much of a warm up late week now... Modest troughs dominate through day 16....mostly a seasonable look to it.

Departures of July to date:

BOS: +4.6

ORH: +4.0

BDL: +2.8

PVD: +3.5

The bolded is puzzling.

Also......maybe 1-2 cool days but the pattern continues warm. Beware of using JB mythology too heavily.

[weathafella]

The 12Z GFS doesn't have much of a warm up late week now... Modest troughs dominate through day 16....mostly a seasonable look to it.

The GFS at 5-6 days out had me in the upper 80s the day it topped 100. I wouldn't trust anything beyond D4-5 but let's just say this pattern doesn't not play into GFS's wheelhouse. It's been a very hot month of July for SNE. That's verification. Euro is still king.

[Ginx snewx]

Departures of July to date:

BOS: +4.6

ORH: +4.0

BDL: +2.8

PVD: +3.5

The bolded is puzzling.

Also......maybe 1-2 cool days but the pattern continues warm. Beware of using JB mythology too heavily.

I have no idea what this means but in reality sinceJune 1 St we have had some warmth lately but keep in mind below for the entire month of June.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I have no idea what this means but in reality sinceJune 1 St we have had some warmth lately but keep in mind sewers below for the entire month of June.

I think we are solidly positive for the 2 month period. June, if I recall, came in just slightly negative. We are absolutely torching for July. ay was above normal as well for all 4 climo stations.

June

BOS -0.9

BDL 0.0

PVD -0.2

ORH -0.1

[Ginx snewx]

I think we are solidly positive for the 2 month period. June, if I recall, came in just slightly negative. We are absolutely torching for July. ay was above normal as well for all 4 climo stations.

Like I said lately.... But again there is a trough here this week AIT and no matter what is said, ten days ago I said that recurving typhoon will lead to a trough here after pumping the ridge for the heat wave but then again I know nothing about thermodynamics.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Like I said lately.... But again there is a trough here this week AIT and no matter what is said, ten days ago I said that recurving typhoon will lead to a trough here after pumping the ridge for the heat wave but then again I know nothing about thermodynamics.

E MA has been backdoored. Really nice out here right now. You'll love it when you land in PVD. Only 76F presently.

[Ginx snewx]

E MA has been backdoored. Really nice out here right now. You'll love it when you land in PVD. Only 76F presently.

Awesome the MA is a hellhole, can not wait to breath again.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just peaking at the 12z Euro and it looks lie it wants to bring heights back up by next weekend. Severity does not appear as bad as this past one. Time to start watch the days get shorter and nights cooler.

[Typhoon Tip]

Like I said lately.... But again there is a trough here this week AIT and no matter what is said, ten days ago I said that recurving typhoon will lead to a trough here after pumping the ridge for the heat wave but then again I know nothing about thermodynamics.

It's unfortunately more likely coincidence in this ...

1) The science of recurving cyclones even states in hard text that the correlation is primarily autumnal (September/October) for reasons I tried to explain, you ignored; and then claimed you understand this stuff at the level of advanced meteorology because you have an Environ Science degree and some other course work? That may be, but you then don't demonstrate you really have that understanding and the basics of atmospheric science behind it. Instead hard-headedly bang your head on this typhoon going N in the west Pac. That is fundamentally wrong during this particular season, and doesn't even apply right now because you are missing using the science on the matter.

2) This trough this week is hugely transient in nature. The recurve refers to typhoons that complete symmetric phase transition and completely evolve into extra-tropical cyclones. Those that then have enough residence in the large scale circulation system to significantly alter the R-wave numbers/configuration from the W-Pac to off the E Coast, being the impetus behind the study. That's not happening now. One of the reasons the correlation in point 1 is correct is because there is a statistical overlap in frequency (max in those two months) over the top of seasonally increasing ambient geopotential gradient - cyclogenesis potential is thus enhanced, and typhoons gaining latitude can than arrive into potential baroclinicity - none of which is the case in July! Nor, in this situation leading. The result in proper use of the science is a meaningful pattern change featuring the western N/ American ridge, eastern N/ American trough (PNAP pattern), which is not happening. Even NCEP says that lowering heights and cyclonic flow is favored into the PAC N/W, with building heights THIS WEEK in the east. And they are right.

There is an east-based negative NAO right now, the impact of which is occasional trough digging into the Maritimes, and as they first pass over the top of our latitude, they are suppressing the heights and allowing shallow cold fronts to penetrate. That's all this is. The native pattern from the Pac through N/A has not really changed, certainly not in the vein of that science.

Folks, I think you will find that heat returns to whatever anomaly uncertain toward Th/Frid.

[Ginx snewx]

It's unfortunately more likely coincidence in this ...

1) The science of recurving cyclones even states in hard text that the correlation is primarily autumnal (September/October) for reasons I tried to explain, you ignored; and then claimed you understand this stuff at the level of advanced meteorology because you have an Environ Science degree and some other course work? That may be, but you then don't demonstrate you really have that understanding and the basics of atmospheric science behind it. Instead hard-headedly bang your head on this typhoon going N in the west Pac. That is fundamentally wrong during this particular season, and doesn't even apply right now because you are missing using the science on the matter.

Really Tip, or is it a lack of recurves that make the data set too small. Missing nothing, knew you would say coincidence ten days ago just like you did in June

2) This trough this week is hugely transient in nature. The recurve refers to typhoons that complete symmetric phase transition and completely evolve into extra-tropical cyclones. Those that then have enough residence in the large scale circulation system to significantly alter the R-wave numbers/configuration from the W-Pac to off the E Coast, being the impetus behind the study. That's not happening now. One of the reasons the correlation in point 1 is correct is because there is a statistical overlap in frequency (max in those two months) over the top of seasonally increasing ambient geopotential gradient - cyclogenesis potential is thus enhanced, and typhoons gaining latitude can than arrive into potential baroclinicity - none of which is the case in July! Nor, in this situation leading. The result in proper use of the science is a meaningful pattern change featuring the western N/ American ridge, eastern N/ American trough (PNAP pattern), which is not happening. Even NCEP says that lowering heights and cyclonic flow is favored into the PAC N/W, with building heights THIS WEEK in the east. And they are right.

There is an east-based negative NAO right now, the impact of which is occasional trough digging into the Maritimes, and as they first pass over the top of our latitude, they are suppressing the heights and allowing shallow cold fronts to penetrate. That's all this is. The native pattern from the Pac through N/A has not really changed, certainly not in the vein of that science.

Folks, I think you will find that heat returns to whatever anomaly uncertain toward Th/Frid.

Some other Mets with Graduate degrees and others who are actually working in Meteorology agree with me.

[#NoPoles]

Dude, you're making my point! You're wrong also when you say "isn't necessarily owed to wavelenghth" - what do you think controls those wave lengths?

That is in part WHY I am right that summeer correlation is weak if at all.

Ginx is stuck in a feed-back loop that denies scientific logic; he wants to apply that recurve "theory" - which isn't LAW by way, just a theory - unilaterally and that, as I said in the first place, is improper.

I'm done. When you folks suffer the blood sweat and tears of advanced atmospheric dynamics, which includes coupled thermo and fluid dynamics models, then respond sounding as though you inherently understand those principles, we'll talk - until such time, think what you want and swim with the blind. I'm threw -

Dude, you have a really large ego...you're turning into a DT clone

[Ginx snewx]

Posted A minute ago

Seriously on the Tarmac at BWI for ground stop! Now I know how CTBLIZZ feels at his summer home at BDL Tarmac WTF

[OKpowdah]

Overall, the heat is not going anywhere anytime soon. We'll get transient respites for sure, but we're seeing this overwhelming midlatitude warmth developing now that will dictate long term anomalies. I think what we're seeing now is an inter-seasonal regime change from low to high index NAM. Regardless of whatever the CPC is calculating for daily values, we are seeing a clear increase in latitude (and intensification) of the mean westerlies. This overall pattern will remain in place through September ... before turning over again in time for winter ...

Also of note is the recent WWB in the far western Pacific, and the MJO becomes more active. ENSO ramifications aside, as the westerly anomalies propagate poleward, we'll probably be up for another heat wave at the end of August.

[Mr Torchey]

Overall, the heat is not going anywhere anytime soon. We'll get transient respites for sure, but we're seeing this overwhelming midlatitude warmth developing now that will dictate long term anomalies. I think what we're seeing now is an inter-seasonal regime change from low to high index NAM. Regardless of whatever the CPC is calculating for daily values, we are seeing a clear increase in latitude (and intensification) of the mean westerlies. This overall pattern will remain in place through September ... before turning over again in time for winter ...

Also of note is the recent WWB in the far western Pacific, and the MJO becomes more active. ENSO ramifications aside, as the westerly anomalies propagate poleward, we'll probably be up for another heat wave at the end of August.

Exactly great post. two day cool down, then right back into the torch later in the week, August is going to roast just Like July has, doubters will look foolish once again.

[Typhoon Tip]

Dude, you have a really large ego...you're turning into a DT clone

You're being petty if you think ego has anything to do with my position in this discussion -

drop that.

[Typhoon Tip]

Overall, the heat is not going anywhere anytime soon. We'll get transient respites for sure, but we're seeing this overwhelming midlatitude warmth developing now that will dictate long term anomalies. I think what we're seeing now is an inter-seasonal regime change from low to high index NAM. Regardless of whatever the CPC is calculating for daily values, we are seeing a clear increase in latitude (and intensification) of the mean westerlies. This overall pattern will remain in place through September ... before turning over again in time for winter ...

Also of note is the recent WWB in the far western Pacific, and the MJO becomes more active. ENSO ramifications aside, as the westerly anomalies propagate poleward, we'll probably be up for another heat wave at the end of August.

It was never going anywhere... The usage was a miss-allocation all along.

And, just because someone is educated in a field and voices a veracious opinion from a position of that education and knowledge, does not make them an egotist - what the devil was that all about.

OMG - Duck! There's giant egotistical ridge over eastern N/A between 96-144 hours - go figure. .