Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 534 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 IAZ086-282330- WAPELLO- 534 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. FUNNEL CLOUDS...PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLAKESBURG... OTTUMWA... AGENCY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Interestingly enough, the latest RUC has 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE tonight with some reasonable helicity values over the city. But alas it has some unwanted CINH in the mix too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Interestingly enough, the latest RUC has 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE tonight with some reasonable helicity values over the city. But alas it has some unwanted CINH in the mix too. That's interesting since I noticed some helicity moving across Lake Michigan on the SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Better late than never I guess... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 290451Z - 290615Z ASIDE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE PHASING WITH A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED TO A DEGREE OVER FAR NORTHERN IL /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA/ RECENTLY WHILE OTHERWISE PERSISTING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WSW-ENE ACROSS THE REGION. IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND VERY MOIST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMON. WHILE SOME NEAR-SURFACE CINH EXISTS...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ARE SAMPLING RELATIVELY STRONG SPEED SHEAR /ACCENTUATED BY A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2 PER S2/ WITHIN AN OTHERWISE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. WITH A FEW WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVING ALREADY BEEN NOTED PER RADAR IMAGERY...A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Headed toward Alek BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1155 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1230 AM CDT * AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VILLA PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Getting a sick lightning show right now...best I've seen in a while. Of course, I was on vacation during yesterday morning's washout so I don't know how good that one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Non-severe storm in Ogle Co has a semi-supercell look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Headed toward Alek BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1155 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1230 AM CDT * AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VILLA PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. this woke me up, looks lile i'll be getting trained tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Had this blow through a short bit ago. Pretty intense. The lightening with these storms is just sick. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 213 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0202 AM TSTM WND GST 1 NW BATTLE CREEK 42.33N 85.21W 07/29/2011 M61 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Oh my, nasty storm even despite being a bit elevated. Non-stop lightning and thunder. I'm not sure if there was any wind though (it woke me up). I'm also a bit surprised by the severe thunderstorm watch. BTW, this is why I love MCV t'storms they're the best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 30% sig-severe for Minnesota tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 a pretty impressive low-level meso and tight rotation with the supercell a good ways north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Our trip to MN just got a bit more interesting after waking to the latest SPC Day One. In part: WITH WIND PROFILES FEATURING 20 KT SW TO WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 30-40 KT WNW FLOW AT 500 MB AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL/NRN MN AND NW WI...TORNADOES. Staying with in-laws and hosting a small party early afternoon. We're on the southwest side of Bloomington. Nice heating taking place under clear skies already. A drive out west to the open country just might be in order later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Pushed out a forecast for Eau Claire and Mosinne, WI areas, showing good potential for convective winds up to 50 knots, and hail potential of up to 1". Lifted Index's around -8, SFC CAPE around 2,100 j/kg. Uploaded: http://smartwxmodel.net/KEAU.pdf and http://smartwxmodel.net/KCWO.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Severe T'Storm Watch issued for Northern Wisconsin and the Western UP. There's some nice low level CAPE ahead of the squall line too (200 J/KG of 0-1km CAPE) and nice downdraft CAPE (1000-1200 J/KG), so strong to damaging winds are almost a given with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Not really complaining here but what is it about this year that is giving N Wisconsin all the severe weather? Of the 20 plus tornadoes this year, all but a few have been in the northern half of the state, with none south of Fon du Lac or the Dells. Not typical at all; usually severe weather really tapers off annually the further north you go in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Not really complaining here but what is it about this year that is giving N Wisconsin all the severe weather? Of the 20 plus tornadoes this year, all but a few have been in the northern half of the state, with none south of Fon du Lac or the Dells. Not typical at all; usually severe weather really tapers off annually the further north you go in the state. Magnitude/extent of the capping that we've seen this year played a role in some setups. But really, it's probably more chance/luck than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Magnitude/extent of the capping that we've seen this year played a role in some setups. But really, it's probably more chance/luck than anything. You're right that there's been more capping for the Midwest areas than normal, which would favor the more northern areas that are less likely to be capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 love the MCD that explains how the lake is going to lay the smackdown on that squall line http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1798.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Could see a bit of action in the NE MKX CWA. Severe warnings just to our north atm. Still pretty sunny here, so should be interesting watching the storms approach or just skirt us by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Pushed out a Smart Forecast for Hayward, WI areas. Seeing a little better environment for weak tornadoes in this area. Main threat is winds up to 54 knots and hail up to size of 1.4". Data uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/KHYR.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 quite the supercell in MN awhile with 130kts g2g at 4600kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Impressive! PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 816 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0755 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SE LEMMON 45.91N 102.11W 07/31/2011 M94 MPH PERKINS SD AWOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 942 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011 NDC001-037-041-059-010330- /O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-110801T0330Z/ ADAMS ND-GRANT ND-HETTINGER ND-MORTON ND- 842 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MORTON...SOUTHEASTERN HETTINGER...GRANT AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM MDT/1030 PM CDT/... AT 836 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF ELGIN...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEMMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN BURLEIGH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... EASTERN OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/ * AT 857 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LARK...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Bismarck looks like it is right in the gun sight of that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm curious as to how tonight's convection will interact with tomorrow's potential. Doesn't seem like much happened today, so it should be interesting to see tomorrow morning vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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