CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What about up here? I'd really like some natural rain for my garden.. haven't had that in a while Yeah you have a shot, but as the nature of tstms go....I wouldn't say it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yeah you have a shot, but as the nature of tstms go....I wouldn't say it's a lock. I have gotten to know the nature of tstorms in MHT.. don't have to remind me Actually for winter storms as well.. MHT just sucks lol besides being a heat magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 From radar it seems a lot of moisture is building in Ontario.. you can almost see the warm front and the cold front on the radar Hopefully it keeps hauling and maybe we can fire some SVR Hires NMM AND ARW and RUC all like a line of storms around 5-10 tonight.. well have to watch that. Not sure what HRRR says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Did you guys catch the haboob in Phoenix last night? There's some pretty good vids coming out of it on Youtube this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Did you guys catch the haboob in Phoenix last night? There's some pretty good vids coming out of it on Youtube this morning. yeah cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Did you guys catch the haboob in Phoenix last night? There's some pretty good vids coming out of it on Youtube this morning. Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Tomorrow looks beautiful around here on the 12Z NAM..... after a few storms tonight maybe. 72/79/81 so far this week. Maybe today we get 83 and I succumb and use some a/c if the humidity annoys me enough, but will shut it off tonight. Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Every now and then the jet stream gets into an anomalous configuration and some Saharan dust gets flung right up into Western Europe and even England. More commonly it gets pulled west along the Easterlies I guess and can make it all the way to the Caribbean. I think that may act as a supresser to tropical activity...or maybe I got that reversed.... Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The NAM is still doing its best to get a PRE up here for SNE this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The NAM is still doing its best to get a PRE up here for SNE this weekend. Saw that.. it has that front dropping and a PRE coming up.. Its been steadfast with that low though.. maybe we can get a trend west and flooding rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Its been steadfast with that low though.. maybe we can get a trend west and flooding rains? Doesn't mean it's right. For laughs though... And BTW that's from Mitch's models page. He has some nice maps...the link is in his sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Doesn't mean it's right. For laughs though... And BTW that's from Mitch's models page. He has some nice maps...the link is in his sig. What are 925 winds equivalent too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What are 925 winds equivalent too? 5/dayj/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What are 925 winds equivalent too? 925mb? That's about 2600' or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Doesn't mean it's right. For laughs though... And BTW that's from Mitch's models page. He has some nice maps...the link is in his sig. It seems as though most of the models are spinning up something in the Carolinas up off the coast of the Northeast for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 BOS 88 now at 11am. Should get to 92 or so I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 It seems as though most of the models are spinning up something in the Carolinas up off the coast of the Northeast for the weekend. We'll need some rain by then anyway. I'm not optimistic though, think we are in for an extended period of warm and dry. 80/67 warm but still quite tolerable. I'm sure I'll be singing a different tune by 3 or 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 81/57 attm... sun is very warm though KFIT at 86 at 10:52 Should be a heat wave there, just barely ASH should be getting there, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 TORCH cancel LOL Let's go PRE....Hey anything that suppresses high temps with the July 10th sun angle is ok in my book. 81/57 attm... sun is very warm though KFIT at 86 at 10:52 Should be a heat wave there, just barely ASH should be getting there, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yep the sun is just unacceptably strong now... 81 here yesterday was down right hot in the full sun. If you live in the woods it's probably a very different perspective. 79/62 here now. Mid 80's looking increasingly likely. 81/57 attm... sun is very warm though KFIT at 86 at 10:52 Should be a heat wave there, just barely ASH should be getting there, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The NAM is still doing its best to get a PRE up here for SNE this weekend. yeah it's been all over that feature for days now. if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 yeah it's been all over that feature for days now. if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong. What do you make of the 00z GGEM and 06z GFS? They both bring something up the coast as well. Even the 00z Euro looked like it showed something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 What do you make of the 00z GGEM and 06z GFS? They both bring something up the coast as well. Even the 00z Euro looked like it showed something i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s. seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything. i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s. seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything. i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather. Thanks, 12z GFS coming in with a weak SLP dropping some modest rains for SNE for Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s. seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything. i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather. I think that's a big problem with a lot of models. They always seem to overdo precip in the cold sector during the warm season. Maybe if the s/w is strong enough, you can get some enhanced lift and frontogenesis, but most of the time...we don't have the baroclinicity and advection processes to generate heavy rain well north and northwest of the low. Heavy rain is usually confined closer to the center of the low itself, or perhaps in one of those narrow pwat plumes that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 yeah it's been all over that feature for days now. if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong. Yup...RRQ of a 100kt H25 jet is there...theta-e ridge shooting up through New England into ME...trough axis west of the system...Probably hvy hvy wrong for the 48hr+ NAM indeed. I'm not sure if snownh will survive between now and the weekend on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 87/57 here.. not unbearable but not comfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yup...RRQ of a 100kt H25 jet is there...theta-e ridge shooting up through New England into ME...trough axis west of the system... Probably hvy hvy wrong for the 48hr+ NAM indeed. I'm not sure if snownh will survive between now and the weekend on the main forum. Lol I'm not expecting anything tropical.. just some heavy downpours at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I wonder if Andy had a PRE after seeing the NAM. He loves those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 To bad we couldn't realize a little more instability today.... ...NORTHEAST... A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER QUEBEC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOISTENING TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND HELP TO SUSTAIN A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. AN EVENTUAL MERGER INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES IS EXPECTED...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. IF THE AIR MASS WAS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE...THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE A RATHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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