free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 If anything were to develop close® to home, ssts look pretty warm rel to avg...infact most of the Atlantic has been and continues easily above avg. Also have to like the + anomalies to our N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Nothing like last year when the Atlantic was boiling, but yeah still +AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I wonder if Andy had a PRE after seeing the NAM. He loves those. He had a FULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 It's all good, we will be tracking a Cat3-4 recurve in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Nothing like last year when the Atlantic was boiling, but yeah still +AMO. I don't have a snapshot of early July 2010, it looks of somewhat similar values there. Very impressive either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I don't have a snapshot of early July 2010, it looks of somewhat similar values there. Very impressive either way. The Carb and MDR region last year were warmer, but yes the Atlantic is still milder than normal. The Carb recently got a nice shot in temps thanks to some westerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Looks like watch is out for NNE and into ctrl and wrn mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Looks like watch is out for NNE and into ctrl and wrn mass. Watch is out for HFD and Litchfield Counties too.. You think after 5 or 6:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 88/61, very warm, but not oppressive unless you try and go on a 5 mile run...then it is. 1pm: FIT 88 ASH 88 BDL 87 BOS 90 BAF 89 ORH 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 To bad we couldn't realize a little more instability today.... ...NORTHEAST... A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER QUEBEC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOISTENING TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND HELP TO SUSTAIN A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. AN EVENTUAL MERGER INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES IS EXPECTED...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. IF THE AIR MASS WAS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE...THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE A RATHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NH...VT...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 061704Z - 061800Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NY...VT...NH AND WRN MAINE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AND WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN QUEBEC LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NY EXTENDING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD CONTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL OR FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE. ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2011 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41707734 41677546 43017192 43827050 44507034 44847057 44987139 44917278 44637507 43147722 41707734 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Looks like watch is out for NNE and into ctrl and wrn mass. Ha, beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I'm working at 5 so I expect golf ball size hail to fall imby with intense lightning and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Severe watch! It looks like a line will form instead of discrete cells from radar too.. Maybe well get something like 2-3 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Severe watch! It looks like a line will form instead of discrete cells from radar too.. Maybe well get something like 2-3 weeks ago Yeah, can't wait for a line of storms that makes it to the Cheshire/Hillsborough border and dies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yeah, can't wait for a line of storms that makes it to the Cheshire/Hillsborough border and dies . Oh I'm expecting that too.. but one of these days we'll get lucky Like I said earlier in the day MHT and ASH sucks for severe an even winter I fully expect no severe in a SVR watch and 9" in a 12-15" forecast.. If a severe storm does hit, it will make it extra good, but it is very unlikely in this crappy weather city I think boxing day and 6/1 were Epiphanies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Nothing like last year when the Atlantic was boiling, but yeah still +AMO. LOL yeah good way to describe it. i was actually just looking back at the tna numbers recently. 2010 blows every other year away, including this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Temp has backed off from a high of 89F to 86F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Temp has backed off from a high of 89F to 86F now. marine layer punching north a bit perhaps. dews are in the low 70s down this way and although the fog is confined to the immediate beaches the sky is getting hazy...likely to fog in once the sun gets a bit lower later on. pretty stark dewpoint contrast around SNE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Watch is out for HFD and Litchfield Counties too.. You think after 5 or 6:00? I think so, but we'll have to watch the cells near Albany to see if they fire on some sort of pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 marine layer punching north a bit perhaps. dews are in the low 70s down this way and although the fog is confined to the immediate beaches the sky is getting hazy...likely to fog in once the sun gets a bit lower later on. pretty stark dewpoint contrast around SNE right now. PHX here, while Havana there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 PHX here, while Havana there. yeah something like 77/72 here right now. very humid. LOL. it approached 80 earlier but has definitely started to settle back as things have moistened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 marine layer punching north a bit perhaps. dews are in the low 70s down this way and although the fog is confined to the immediate beaches the sky is getting hazy...likely to fog in once the sun gets a bit lower later on. pretty stark dewpoint contrast around SNE right now. I noticed the dew dropping all day at TAN but the latest ob bumped back up. That's crazy down there. You can keep those DP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Even some shwrs down by srn CT too right now. Kind of an interesting thing happening. S/w over the MId Atantic is forcing tstms to erupt in NJ and could be influencing the development in srn CT right now. Dews are hgiher along the south coast as well. In between you have a mini dry zone from nrn PA into interior SNE where dews are near 60. As you go further nw, the higher dews pool along the coldfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Even some shwrs down by srn CT too right now. Kind of an interesting thing happening. S/w over the MId Atantic is forcing tstms to erupt in NJ and could be influencing the development in srn CT right now. Dews are hgiher along the south coast as well. In between you have a mini dry zone from nrn PA into interior SNE where dews are near 60. As you go further nw, the higher dews pool along the coldfront. Does that mean the higher dews will keep pushing along the front? Or if you're at 60 now your stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Even some shwrs down by srn CT too right now. Kind of an interesting thing happening. S/w over the MId Atantic is forcing tstms to erupt in NJ and could be influencing the development in srn CT right now. Dews are hgiher along the south coast as well. In between you have a mini dry zone from nrn PA into interior SNE where dews are near 60. As you go further nw, the higher dews pool along the coldfront. it's interesting that the euro and a bunch of sref members have both those areas you outlined wet this afternoon but never get anything into SNE. euro has had a dry fropa for a couple of days now. the 12z ec 2-m dews for this afternoon actually in a crude way also illustrate what you are showing with higher dews up north and down south and an elongated area of drier air across the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Jeez with line forming in NY you'd think Wed be in for a major SVR day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 it's interesting that the euro and a bunch of sref members have both those areas you outlined wet this afternoon but never get anything into SNE. euro has had a dry fropa for a couple of days now. the 12z ec 2-m dews for this afternoon actually in a crude way also illustrate what you are showing with higher dews up north and down south and an elongated area of drier air across the interior Yeah we're all screwed inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 87.6 / 66.7 here, high of 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yeah we're all screwed inland ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ? Meaning no storms..just dry and hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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