Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Post 4th of July thoughts


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah you have a shot, but as the nature of tstms go....I wouldn't say it's a lock.

I have gotten to know the nature of tstorms in MHT.. don't have to remind me

Actually for winter storms as well.. MHT just sucks lol besides being a heat magnet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From radar it seems a lot of moisture is building in Ontario.. you can almost see the warm front and the cold front on the radar

Hopefully it keeps hauling and maybe we can fire some SVR

Hires NMM AND ARW and RUC all like a line of storms around 5-10 tonight.. well have to watch that.

Not sure what HRRR says

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you guys catch the haboob in Phoenix last night? There's some pretty good vids coming out of it on Youtube this morning.

Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow looks beautiful around here on the 12Z NAM..... after a few storms tonight maybe.

72/79/81 so far this week. Maybe today we get 83 and I succumb and use some a/c if the humidity annoys me enough, but will shut it off tonight.

Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every now and then the jet stream gets into an anomalous configuration and some Saharan dust gets flung right up into Western Europe and even England. More commonly it gets pulled west along the Easterlies I guess and can make it all the way to the Caribbean.

I think that may act as a supresser to tropical activity...or maybe I got that reversed....

Yeah awesome stuff. They get a lot of those in northern African and up through the middle east, but the stuff in Phoenix was like something you'd see in Iraq.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM is still doing its best to get a PRE up here for SNE this weekend.

Saw that.. it has that front dropping and a PRE coming up..

Its been steadfast with that low though.. maybe we can get a trend west and flooding rains?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't mean it's right. For laughs though...

And BTW that's from Mitch's models page. He has some nice maps...the link is in his sig.

It seems as though most of the models are spinning up something in the Carolinas up off the coast of the Northeast for the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems as though most of the models are spinning up something in the Carolinas up off the coast of the Northeast for the weekend.

We'll need some rain by then anyway. I'm not optimistic though, think we are in for an extended period of warm and dry.

80/67 warm but still quite tolerable. I'm sure I'll be singing a different tune by 3 or 4pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep the sun is just unacceptably strong now... 81 here yesterday was down right hot in the full sun. If you live in the woods it's probably a very different perspective.

79/62 here now. Mid 80's looking increasingly likely.

81/57 attm... sun is very warm though

KFIT at 86 at 10:52 Should be a heat wave there, just barely

ASH should be getting there, too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM is still doing its best to get a PRE up here for SNE this weekend.

yeah it's been all over that feature for days now.

if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah it's been all over that feature for days now.

if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong.

What do you make of the 00z GGEM and 06z GFS? They both bring something up the coast as well. Even the 00z Euro looked like it showed something

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do you make of the 00z GGEM and 06z GFS? They both bring something up the coast as well. Even the 00z Euro looked like it showed something

i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s.

seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything.

i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s.

seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything.

i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather.

Thanks, 12z GFS coming in with a weak SLP dropping some modest rains for SNE for Sat/Sun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i don't think the idea of a weak wave shooting out south of the area is too crazy. just think the nam and a lot of the srefs are probably feeding back too much...some go pretty nuts and have it down into the 990s.

seems like a lot of times when we get the models trying to induce lows like this in the summer they end up too expansive with the qpf field and too deep at the surface. instead of some hybrid TC like the NAM shows we end up with some crappy blow up of convection out over the water robbing the rest of us of much of anything.

i'd welcome it though...love the sun and warmth right now but also nice to get some interludes of interesting weather.

I think that's a big problem with a lot of models. They always seem to overdo precip in the cold sector during the warm season. Maybe if the s/w is strong enough, you can get some enhanced lift and frontogenesis, but most of the time...we don't have the baroclinicity and advection processes to generate heavy rain well north and northwest of the low. Heavy rain is usually confined closer to the center of the low itself, or perhaps in one of those narrow pwat plumes that can happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah it's been all over that feature for days now.

if we can actually get the moisture up into the northeast the potential would be there for some short-lived but really good rains. decent jet streak/RER over the area for a time and add in the source region - that would dump hvy hvy rains. but given it's the nam...it's probably hvy hvy wrong.

Yup...RRQ of a 100kt H25 jet is there...theta-e ridge shooting up through New England into ME...trough axis west of the system...

Probably hvy hvy wrong for the 48hr+ NAM indeed. I'm not sure if snownh will survive between now and the weekend on the main forum.:weenie:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup...RRQ of a 100kt H25 jet is there...theta-e ridge shooting up through New England into ME...trough axis west of the system...

Probably hvy hvy wrong for the 48hr+ NAM indeed. I'm not sure if snownh will survive between now and the weekend on the main forum.:weenie:

Lol I'm not expecting anything tropical.. just some heavy downpours at this point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To bad we couldn't realize a little more instability today....

...NORTHEAST...

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY

OVER QUEBEC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS

PARTS OF NY/PA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOISTENING TODAY...WITH

DEWPOINTS NOW RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT

TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND HELP TO

SUSTAIN A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW/MID

LEVELS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED

MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. AN EVENTUAL

MERGER INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES IS EXPECTED...WITH EMBEDDED

BOWS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. IF THE AIR MASS WAS A LITTLE

MORE UNSTABLE...THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE A RATHER WIDESPREAD

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND

REPORTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...