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July 2011 general discussion/obs thread


OHSnow

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Thanks.

Indeed...A ton of cg's.

LOT put out a special weather statement for these storms as well..

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 125 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONGTHUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GILBERTS TO ELBURN TOHINCKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVYDOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSEOBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH ASTREES. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH ASDITCHES...VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES...CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS. SEEKSHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

Looking forward too see if that stuff in SW. Iowa moves in later in the morning as well..

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Hope to get some thunderstorms today before I leave for Estes Park for a week. On the bright side we saw our first 100* temp @TOL since July '95.

Enjoy! Estes Park is perfect this time of year (generally highs in the 75-85 range), and thunderstorms always a possibility. Nice and green this year, too, with a fair amount of snow still on the higher peaks.

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Enjoy! Estes Park is perfect this time of year (generally highs in the 75-85 range), and thunderstorms always a possibility. Nice and green this year, too, with a fair amount of snow still on the higher peaks.

Yeah it sounds like an ideal type of weather for me. Also get to tour ESRL and a few other places in Boulder

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Any early August thoughts for temps and precip? I just hope its nothing like last yrs with the dp riding in upper 60's and into 70's a lot of the month.. Temps were no treat either.. high temp was +4.7 and the low temps +4.9 - yuck. Precip was about 2.50" below normal.

I have no clue how this august plays out but I don't think we can match the yuckness factor of last yr but who knows.

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No real good place to put this I suppose, but I tallied some of the longest 90º+ day streaks from the WL COOP (1901 to 1963) on my blog recently. I did the LAF ones (1964 to present) earlier in this thread I believe.

We're at 5 and counting right now, with the next 4 being a lock. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week look like the streak may end, but barely. We'll see. Anyways, the numbers...

21 days: July 10-30, 1901 (peak temp of 104º three days)

20 days: August 7-26, 1936 (peak temp of 101º two days)

19 days: July 25-August 12, 1935 (peak temp of 98º)

19 days: July 18-August 5, 1940 (peak temp of 101º)

18 days: July 30-August 16, 1944 (peak temp of 98º)

17 days: June 29-July 15, 1921 (peak temp of 98º two days)

17 days: June 16-July 2, 1933 (peak temp of 99º four times)

16 days: July 25-August 9, 1931 (peak temp of 99º)

16 days: July 14-29, 1934 (peak temp of 110º two times)

16 days: July 3-18, 1936 (peak temp of 111º)

And the longest streak of days with a high temp of 100º+...

13 days: July 5-17, 1936...104º, 103º, 108º, 109º, 103º, 107º, 108º, 110º, 110º, 111º, 105º, 101º, 103º

EDIT: As a refresher, here's the LAF streaks (again, 1964 to present):

14 days*...7/11-24/1983: 95, 91, 93, 96, 93, 93, 96, 98, 99, 102, 102, 104, 100, 90

* It was 89 on 7/25/1983, but was followed by this: 7/26-31/1983: 90, 91, 99, 99, 91, 93

9 days...7/28-8/5/1988: 91, 91, 90, 91, 95, 93, 95, 93, 90

9 days...8/10-18/1988: 90, 91, 91, 91, 90, 97, 97, 98, 96

9 days...6/14-22/1994: 90, 92, 92, 93, 93, 97, 93, 91, 90

9 days...8/5-13/2007: 93, 94, 98, 96, 94, 92, 93, 98, 90

8 days...7/19-26/1987: 90, 91, 91, 91, 91, 91, 93, 91

8 days...7/27-8/3/1995: 91, 90, 95, 95, 95, 90, 91, 90

8 days...8/11-18/1995: 91, 95, 95, 93, 91, 93, 91, 95

7 days...6/22-28/1966: 90, 90, 91, 93, 95, 91, 90

7 days*...7/14-20/1980: 95, 104, 97, 91, 93, 100, 102

* Just missed a 11 day streak: 7/10-13/1980: 91, 93, 99, 89

7 days...7/3-9/1988: 90, 96, 98, 98, 97, 99, 99

7 days...7/17-23/1991: 91, 91, 96, 93, 95, 99, 91

7 days...7/11-17/1995: 90, 92, 97, 99, 99, 93, 91

Some of your numbers are a little off. The righthand column on Wunderground lists the record high...we can only tell what the airport's actual high temp was on the record breaking days...otherwise it's impossible to know if there was an intrahour bump.

For instance, July 20-23 1983 was 103, 104, 105, 101. That 105 is tied with 6/25/88 for the warmest day in the "modern" era. Don't have time to go through the other dates right now.

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Anyways, a lot of the golf courses around here are losing or close to losing their greens due to the heat and complete lack of rain. Not good for my line of work for sure. Chalk up another reason why I hate this crap with a passion, though this time it hurts my livelihood. :(

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Yes I realize there are circumstances where wunderground doesn't have the right high temps (intra hour bumps). But I did the best with what I could find. Shouldn't have posted them I guess...

Didn't mean to come off as nitpicky. I'm sure it took a while to put that together. A lot of days are probably correct and the days that aren't are probably only off by a degree or two.

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Didn't mean to come off as nitpicky. I'm sure it took a while to put that together. A lot of days are probably correct and the days that aren't are probably only off by a degree or two.

No it's on me because I didn't put a disclaimer about the possible intra hour highs. Regardless, the intention was mainly about streaks rather than how "high" the temps got I guess.

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Through the 22nd... ranking in parentheses.

Cleveland 87.2/67.4 77.3 (3)

Toledo 90.8/66.5 78.6 (2)

Mansfield 87.2/64.6 75.9 (4)

Akron/Canton 87.0/65.7 76.3 (6)

Erie, PA 84.7/66.6 75.7 (3)

Detroit 89.6/68.9 79.3 (1)

Flint 89.1/64.3 76.7 (3)

Indianapolis 90.8/71.5 81.1 (4)

Chicago 88.8/69.2 79.0 (3)

Rockford 90.3/68.0 79.1 (4)

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Any early August thoughts for temps and precip? I just hope its nothing like last yrs with the dp riding in upper 60's and into 70's a lot of the month.. Temps were no treat either.. high temp was +4.7 and the low temps +4.9 - yuck. Precip was about 2.50" below normal.

I have no clue how this august plays out but I don't think we can match the yuckness factor of last yr but who knows.

Bill Deedler predicted a warm start to summer and a cool finish. So fwiw, there is hope!

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Bill Deedler predicted a warm start to summer and a cool finish. So fwiw, there is hope!

I was originally thinking that might happen as we were going to go to a weak Nino for a bit at least, but that is looking more and more out of the cards and we look to actually transition back toward a Mod Nina. I think the back half of the summer/early fall will be warm.

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I was originally thinking that might happen as we were going to go to a weak Nino for a bit at least, but that is looking more and more out of the cards and we look to actually transition back toward a Mod Nina. I think the back half of the summer/early fall will be warm.

FWIW isn't there usually some lag time between ENSO and its effect on weather patterns?

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Gust front just blew through here with some 20-30mph wind gusts. Lots of lightning to the west the last hour or so. Probably won't get much rain but it's been another great evening of intense/frequent lightning. :guitar:

Getting another nice lightning show here too with the storms sitting just to the north.

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FWIW isn't there usually some lag time between ENSO and its effect on weather patterns?

Yes there is but I'm also riding the fact that I don't expect the ridge/drought to go away anytime soon. The fringe areas might cool some, but the majority of the region is going to remain above normal for a while possibly into fall.

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Yes there is but I'm also riding the fact that I don't expect the ridge/drought to go away anytime soon. The fringe areas might cool some, but the majority of the region is going to remain above normal for a while possibly into fall.

Oh I see, cool cool..

Talking about the drought, with this expected to be a pretty active hurricane season, I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few canes/ remnants swing through the south and midwest. It would only take a few remnants/ storms to put a big dent in the drought. Just throwing some stuff out for thought..

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Oh I see, cool cool..

Talking about the drought, with this expected to be a pretty active hurricane season, I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few cane remnants swing through the south and midwest. It would only take a few remnants/ storms put a big dent in the drought. Just throwing some stuff out for thought..

This would be the thing that is variable in the situation, if Texas were to get a couple tropical systems even weaker ones into their area to dent the drought then that changes things. But hurricane location is highly variable so its tough to bank on one hitting your area.

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