Logan11 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It was 89 here at 1k feet. 92 or 93 in ALB. Even the summit station on Mount Mansfield at 4,000ft hit a high of 75F yesterday which I believe is a record for the date. If it can get to mid 70s at the H87-H85 level, that's pretty darn hot. Make no mistake... the higher elevations did not miss out on this heat. It was 86F up here at the station at 2,100 feet. I'm sure thermometers in the middle of the woods at those elevations were quite a bit cooler, but a properly sited thermometer out in a large open area with a sun shield still got pretty hot regardless of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Reminds me of July 4th weekend of 1999. We seemed to be heading to widespread flirtation with 100 but a MCC mover over us from the NW and by the time it left in mid morning, temps were "muted" to the M-U90s with few if any going much above 95-6. I can't remember the exact day but it was the proverbial fly in the ointment regarding the heat as it may be today. I was just talking to a Met and we were musing that 88 might do it for BED-FIT-ORH-BOS. Too much rain processed air and weak llv gradient ill-equipped to mix out, and the rate of upper air RH decay is not allow critical sun hours... now inside of 10am and milk sky is not going to get it done. We'll see - but the big heat and MOS profiling persistent for days is ironically if not commically exposing erroneous for ever passing minute this milk presists.. To help put this into perspective... this type of air mass has it 90 by 9 - that is what it takes. We are more than muted; we are IN an entirely unmodeled air mass. It is hard to say exactly what will come, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where we gain 31F in a saturated BL without 2 suns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Milky sunshine out here also and 79. Clearly yesterday was our hottest day. I was just talking to a Met and we were musing that 88 might do it for BED-FIT-ORH-BOS. Too much rain processed air and weak llv gradient ill-equipped to mix out, and the rate of upper air RH decay is not allow critical sun hours... now inside of 10am and milk sky is not going to get it done. We'll see - but the big heat and MOS profiling persistent for days is ironically if not commically exposing erroneous for ever passing minute this milk presists.. To help put this into perspective... this type of air mass has it 90 by 9 - that is what it takes. We are more than muted; we are IN an entirely unmodeled air mass. It is hard to say exactly what will come, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where we gain 31F in a saturated BL without 2 suns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 BOX still keeping the 90s in the point and clicks... will they temper them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I was just talking to a Met and we were musing that 88 might do it for BED-FIT-ORH-BOS. Too much rain processed air and weak llv gradient ill-equipped to mix out, and the rate of upper air RH decay is not allow critical sun hours... now inside of 10am and milk sky is not going to get it done. We'll see - but the big heat and MOS profiling persistent for days is ironically if not commically exposing erroneous for ever passing minute this milk presists.. To help put this into perspective... this type of air mass has it 90 by 9 - that is what it takes. We are more than muted; we are IN an entirely unmodeled air mass. It is hard to say exactly what will come, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where we gain 31F in a saturated BL without 2 suns. Glad we didn't issue those excessive heat watches with 2-3 days lead time and dire warnings of deadly heat, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Milky sunshine out here also and 79. Clearly yesterday was our hottest day. It is interesting how that come(s) to pass - not really accredited to any source is the thing. This refusal to quick overnight MCS - if it was even that well organized, just was not modeled well enough. There may have been some meso tools out there that hinted - but that really isn't good enough because plenty of times in the past we have seen overnight/nocturnal action be by the boards in time to not have mucked with the arena the way this has. This is just purely a butt bangin’ if you wanted the heat. HPC analyzes us with meso-bubble high, completely locally created by rain during and prior to dawn… All synoptic scale features are far removed… We are utterly in a cold tiny island amid a vast super heated warm sector – about as elaborately teased and taunted possible in the physical universe. Hahaha. Hey man, I’m glad – I admit part of me wanted to see “just how hot it could get”; that's the scientist in me. The other part of me really knows it is just as well; last night wasn’t too cozy sitting in my living run sweatin’ balz off just sitting there. The fan was useless and I don't have central air. Today would have been ever worse if yesterday's foresights had come to pass. Now watch, the physically impossible will happen and we’ll spontaneously combust for 35F on the dial from noon until 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It is interesting how that come(s) to pass - not really accredited to any source is the thing. This refusal to quick overnight MCS - if it was even that well organized, just was not modeled well enough. There may have been some meso tools out there that hinted - but that really isn't good enough because plenty of times in the past we have seen overnight/nocturnal action be by the boards in time to not have mucked with the arena the way this has. This is just purely a butt bangin’ if you wanted the heat. HPC analyzes us with meso-bubble high, completely locally created by rain during and prior to dawn… All synoptic scale features are far removed… We are utterly in a cold tiny island amid a vast super heated warm sector – about as elaborately teased and taunted possible in the physical universe. Hahaha. Hey man, I’m glad – I admit part of me wanted to see “just how hot it could get”; that's the scientist in me. The other part of me really knows it is just as well; last night wasn’t too cozy sitting in my living run sweatin’ balz off just sitting there. The fan was useless and I don't have central air. Today would have been ever worse if yesterday's foresights had come to pass. Now watch, the physically impossible will happen and we’ll spontaneously combust for 35F on the dial from noon until 4pm. Haha, I'm just bustin' your ballz Tip. Luckily no one cares for the big heat or wants high heat so its a big positive that it didn't pan out. Not like a failed Winter Storm where you're expecting a foot and get 2" of flurries. Heat is just another word for discomfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Glad we didn't issue those excessive heat watches with 2-3 days lead time and dire warnings of deadly heat, huh? Your logic is flawed though actually. You are basing that purely on hind-sight (20/20), and doing so in a situation where there was no indication an MCS would torturously process just this particular AFD overnight last night. Know one knew that yesterday - what they did know was what they were ignoring, and are as a result, fantastically lucky things worked out this way for their own accuracy. KTAN even mentions the possibility this morning - though that doesn't seem very possible now lol. One should base forecasts are what they are given, and at the time (yesterday), there was plenty to go with some kind of notice from purely a Meteorological point of view. (Oh, ha - didn't see your post above).... Yeah, what can you do; sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Your logic is flawed though actually. You are basing that purely on hind-sight (20/20), and doing so in a situation where there was no indication an MCS would torturously process just this particular AFD overnight last night. Know one knew that yesterday - what they did know was what they were ignoring, and are as a result, fantastically lucky things worked out this way for their own accuracy. KTAN even mentions the possibility this morning - though that doesn't seem very possible now lol. One should base forecasts are what they are given, and at the time (yesterday), there was plenty to go with some kind of notice from purely a Meteorological point of view. (Oh, ha - didn't see your post above).... Yeah, what can you do; sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you - Yeah I'm entirely joking... I mean when MOS is printing 100F across the board at the usual hot spots like MHT, CON, ASH, FIT, BDL, etc it is a pretty strong high heat signal. I will admit there is some sadistic tendency to want to see 100/72 airmass... but the sick pleasure is far out-weighed by the discomfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Yeah I'm entirely joking... I mean when MOS is printing 100F across the board at the usual hot spots like MHT, CON, ASH, FIT, BDL, etc it is a pretty strong high heat signal. I will admit there is some sadistic tendency to want to see 100/72 airmass... but the sick pleasure is far out-weighed by the discomfort. I would also whole-heartedly agree that it is a far worse requirement of endurance for many to withstand a 5 day debate about a bomb in witner, only to have it whimper a flat wave out to sea - or perhaps even worse, cut inland and drills the 42F isotherm to ALB hahaha. I guess from that perspective this is laughable by comparison. I remember those days in my youth being really put out by TWC - they were notorious for hyping NE blizzards on there 5 day graphic/extended outlook sections. They'd paint like 3 hues of ever intensifying white, and even put a Blizzard with an arros - oh they qualify it will a little "?".. One thing I can thank TWC for is that it iron-hulled me for my adulthood. Now, nothing gets to me - really. I see a big blizzard in the charts, I just enjoy what the charts say, disconnect that from any reality, and then, enjoy reality whatever that is. The problem is when folks assume reality based on prognostics - that's when it gets insulting and annoying, frustration and ire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 heat is on...87 @ cqx already. perfect w wind for them to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I posted it in the other thread...but I'm thinking mid-90s in typical torch spots...near 90 at elevation...and low-90s elsewhere. The combination of high BL humidity...850s of around 19C or so and morning cloud cover will keep the upper 90s and over 100 degrees at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I posted it in the other thread...but I'm thinking mid-90s in typical torch spots...near 90 at elevation...and low-90s elsewhere. The combination of high BL humidity...850s of around 19C or so and morning cloud cover will keep the upper 90s and over 100 degrees at bay. funny it almost always ends up this way. the MOS #s required the perfect combo of conditions to come together. seeing the 98-102 stuff 3 days out seems like it inevitably always fails because of some cloud debris, slightly cooler 850s, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 heat is on...87 @ cqx already. perfect w wind for them to heat up. Only 80 here in Ledyard with cloudy debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Only 80 here in Ledyard with cloudy debris. lot of spots still in the 70s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Slightly OT but a cursory review of the overnight products across the board suggests it could get hot again in a week - perhaps similar transient ridge insurgeance and convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I can say this much for certainty, that the rain this morning has made for a disgustingly humid afternoon. dewpoint may only be ~70, but it is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 There is one person in Tolland, CT who seems to love it. Haha, I'm just bustin' your ballz Tip. Luckily no one cares for the big heat or wants high heat so its a big positive that it didn't pan out. Not like a failed Winter Storm where you're expecting a foot and get 2" of flurries. Heat is just another word for discomfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 87 at 12 in boston is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 funny it almost always ends up this way. the MOS #s required the perfect combo of conditions to come together. seeing the 98-102 stuff 3 days out seems like it inevitably always fails because of some cloud debris, slightly cooler 850s, etc. This is very true... it seems the hottest days, the ones that hit the century mark, are under-forecast. Somehow a forecast of 90-95F in the valleys turns out to be a blow-dryer honking west wind that leaves the valleys 100/64 instead of a progged 92/70. Likewise these days where big heat is signaled in MOS or other products it always seems to fall short by a couple degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 87 at 12 in boston is sick It should be like 94F by now there though if it was going to hit upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It peaked at 86 here..now ovc and lightning and thunder in the distance ...... It should be like 94F by now there though if it was going to hit upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 82 sunny east winds thank god for long island sound Plans changed, was inland today in Wilton, it was pretty close to unbearable, light headed, multiple breaks, exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 What a huge bust today. That early morning convection really messed it up. Currently up to 83.5F for the high of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 100 at ewr..........horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 KFIT at 88F as of their 1:52 posting... will probably just squeak a 90 if no clouds come in again... Lovely 68F td though Everything is so sticky in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 100 at ewr..........horrific Forky must be enjoying that. That type of heat must really bring out the wonderful fresh mountain air of Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 What a huge bust today. That early morning convection really messed it up. Currently up to 83.5F for the high of the day. Wow, that's impressive after several days of modeled low-mid 90s at ORH and upper 90s elsewhere. Kevin's hopes and dreams were shattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Wow, that's impressive after several days of modeled low-mid 90s at ORH and upper 90s elsewhere. Kevin's hopes and dreams were shattered. The GFS MOS prediction of 97F from a few days ago was just a little off. Its still a nasty airmass though today...especially in the last couple hours as the dew points have climbed. I will really be looking forward to tomorrow's much nicer air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 86/70 temps and dews really spiking the last hour winds veering more southerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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