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June In Southern New England...............


Mr Torchey

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Into the 50s now in the higher hills around. Some upper 40s in S VT showing up. For 3pm in June without assistance of precip, that is very impressive. Then again, so is 850mb temps falling to around 0C later tonight/early tomorrow.

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Into the 50s now in the higher hills around. Some upper 40s in S VT showing up. For 3pm in June without assistance of precip, that is very impressive. Then again, so is 850mb temps falling to around 0C later tonight/early tomorrow.

Going to go out for a run...going to be a while before we get this again.

Pretty amazing...upper 50s in the hills of north central mass and pushing 90 in Baltimore, 88 right now.

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who with axis knows what the current ECMWF ensemble derived NAO is for days 5 - 15 ??

You can get this image for free on this site...go to "models" in upper left and then click on "Allan's site" and then go to ensemble model forecasts its on the Euro page.

12zecmwfensnao.gif

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You can get this image for free on this site...go to "models" in upper left and then click on "Allan's site" and then go to ensemble model forecasts its on the Euro page.

...

Yes I have this - it's not clear to me whether this is the operational or the ensemble mean.

I found it interesting that the 12Z UKMET followed from its 00z run in showing heights and heat building back into the east, whereas contrasting, the the Euro ensemble mean from 12z's run shows something similar by D6.... There respective NAO domains are different than the GEFS as well. 12z operational ECM is not as thrilled with the idea.

I am aware that the GFS members derived NAO is tanking severly at NAO, but ... the D10 verifications show a whopper 1.5 negative bias over the last couple of week so am wondering if the former is suspect.

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Yes I have this - it's not clear to me whether this is the operational or the ensemble mean.

I found it interesting that the 12Z UKMET followed from its 00z run in showing heights and heat building back into the east, whereas contrasting, the the Euro ensemble mean from 12z's run shows something similar by D6.... There respective NAO domains are different than the GEFS as well. 12z operational ECM is not as thrilled with the idea.

I am aware that the GFS members derived NAO is tanking severly at NAO, but ... the D10 verifications show a whopper 1.5 negative bias over the last couple of week so am wondering if the former is suspect.

Its the ens mean

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Yes I have this - it's not clear to me whether this is the operational or the ensemble mean.

I found it interesting that the 12Z UKMET followed from its 00z run in showing heights and heat building back into the east, whereas contrasting, the the Euro ensemble mean from 12z's run shows something similar by D6.... There respective NAO domains are different than the GEFS as well. 12z operational ECM is not as thrilled with the idea.

I am aware that the GFS members derived NAO is tanking severly at NAO, but ... the D10 verifications show a whopper 1.5 negative bias over the last couple of week so am wondering if the former is suspect.

You can get that image for both the operational or ensemble mean. The one I posted at the top says "ECMWF ENS NAO", the operational will just say "ECMWF NAO" at the top.

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