nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 12z euro long range..Ridging near greenland keeps heights suppressed in the northeast, torch elsewhere. Subject to change obviousy, its a 200 hr map: A lot of the models have been showing this weakness in the Canadian Maritimes that's keeping the Northeast near average in temperatures while the Plains/Midwest torches. Until we see if the ridge can build this far north, we won't know if the idea of big heat for NYC-BOS is going to verify. It's a lot easier for the Midwest to heat up in these Sonoran Ridges than the Northeast...we've seen this several times during the spring when places like ORD and DCA have been in the 80s, but we've had more cloud cover and cooler temperatures. For NYC metro's coastal areas, you also need the Bermuda high to migrate further inland so that you have W/NW downsloping winds instead of S/SSW flow, which introduces maritime air at a time when the ocean is still chilly. The 12z GFS shows warm 850s in the long-range, but the high pressure ridge is poorly positioned for a monster heat wave at the coast, IMO. 12z ECM really shows the 50/50 Low keeping heights near normal in the Northeast despite all that warmth coming in from the Southern Plains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 shocker, models already backing off on extent of ridge with persistent trough in the NF area. This will delay the heat yet again, but will it deny it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Oh yeah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Oh yeah.. gfs continues the long range torch, showing no evidence of Greenland ridging..euro flopped and shows a pretty dramatic difference in the upper air pattern upstream. Go with the consistency! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'll believe this heat when I see it. The pattern this spring so far has been overwhelmingly to hold troughiness around here and draw in maritime air, and of course wet weather whenever possible. The fact that the troughiness and even another cutoff is once again rearing its ugly head on multiple Euro runs over New England and Newfoundland concerns me, and it would lead me to believe we'd get stuck on the wrong side of an ugly backdoor for days on end if that came to pass. It's still a long way out, but blocky regimes and cutoffs can still happen around here this time of year (one just did affect us for days). Hopefully the GFS can be right just this once and blast this low cloud/cold maritime regime out to sea. It's been just awful the last 2 days around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 DIX .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FIRST LOOK FOR THE ENTIRE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SUGGESTING A SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST EMPHASIS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE MODELS TRY TO BRING COLD FRONTS THROUGH OUR CWA WITHOUT MUCH SUCCESS UNTIL MAYBE SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THE FIRST ATTEMPT COMES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTING AROUND 90F ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE THERMAL CORE OF THE SERN CONUS RIDGE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The Euro is onboard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The Euro is onboard now. big time... the weekend cold front falls apart and the heat builds in http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011052400!!!step/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 big time... the weekend cold front falls apart and the heat builds in http://www.ecmwf.int...1052400!!!step/ WIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 WIN. ftw wow, a closed 594 height contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 The Euro has like 95 degree temperatures next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 GGEM not the greatest LR model but: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The Euro has like 95 degree temperatures next week Euro is an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Another big torch on the 12z Euro...90's next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 ...and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Im on my phone, how did the Euro look for this weekend? Still have the fronts sort of dying and leaving us with a decent shot of an ok weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The Euro has like 95 degree temperatures next week Good it's about time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is very similar to what happens in the winter-- the models see the pattern change in the long range, lose it for awhile and then bring it back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Euro is an all out torch. On the admittedly poor quality surface maps, you can see that the high pressure is centered pretty far inland, which should guarantee a W/NW downsloping flow that keeps away any semblance of a sea breeze...Here is Day 7, big heat: Day 8 is a total torch with 850mb temperatures exceeding 20C...someone could make a run at triple digits if that verified, although it will probably cool down somewhat as we approach the day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 gfes: euro ensemble mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 12z Euro is extremely hot for a couple days (Tuesday and Wednesday), but then it brings in a below average airmass with the NAO trending more negative and higher heights out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 12z Euro is extremely hot for a couple days (Tuesday and Wednesday), but then it brings in a below average airmass with the NAO trending more negative and higher heights out west. there's not much in the way of sfc high pressure in canada, which means a lower chance of getting stuck in SE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 there's not much in the way of sfc high pressure in canada, which means a lower chance of getting stuck in SE winds No, we'd almost certainly have WNW winds for Day 7-8. Then, a sharp cold front arrives with seasonably cool air and dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 there's not much in the way of sfc high pressure in canada, which means a lower chance of getting stuck in SE winds agreed looks like a 2-3 day torch to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I have no need for hot Dry and breezy would be nice though. It's time for the mt bike trails to dry out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z GFS shows 850s of around 15C for NYC metro next Wednesday, definitely not as hot as the 12z Euro but still impressive with a light northerly/northwesterly flow keeping the sea breeze away. Both the 12z GFS and 12z ECM show that the heat may be intense, but is short-lived. Canadian high moves in by late next week clearing the 10C 850mb contour out of the area. Should be some nice late spring/early summer days with highs in the 70s and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 big time... the weekend cold front falls apart and the heat builds in http://www.ecmwf.int...1052400!!!step/ This weekend, or first weekend in June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Right now I think 85-90 F and 90 + for the usual warm spots look like a good bet depending on the wind direction and if the wind is offshore that means even coastal spots will be warm as well but that could mean also humidity will not be so high. I am thinking dewpoints in the 50's right now at the height of the heat with of course getting higher towards the 60's when the cold front comes and bring cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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