Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think the areas that will more likely see 90+ is areas like ERK and other warm spots in NJ. Possibly some warm spots in SENY also. The city has small shot reaching 90 either on Monday or Tuesday but I go with more 85-90 range right now with LI seeing more of SW to W flow is good sign of seeing the warmth and with LI will be from the upper 70's to near 80 on the south shore to east end with onshore flow kicking in and on the north shore could reach the mid 80's though. Could get warmer and the city would have a better shot reach the 90 F mark if little or no cloud interfere. Here is my prediction for both days Monday: New York City: 85 Newark, NJ: 88 Teterboro, NJ:90 LGA Airport, NY: 82 Kennedy Airport, NY: 80 Islip, NY: 78 Farmingdale, NY: 80 Westhampton, NY: 75 Montauk, NY: 72 Bridgeport, CT: 79 New Haven, CT: 76 White Plains, NY: 85 Trenton, NJ: 89 Philly, PA: 92 Atlantic City, PA: 86 Allentown, PA: 88 Scranton, PA: 87 Pougkeepsie, NY: 84 Hartford, CT: 85 Tuesday: New York City: 88 Newark, NJ: 90 Teterboro, NJ: 90 LGA Airport, NY: 89 Kennedy Airport, NY: 84 Islip, NY: 80 Farmingdale, NY: 83 Westhampton, NY: 78 Montauk, NY: 73 Bridgeport, CT: 82 New Haven, CT: 81 White Plains, NY: 88 Trenton, NJ: 91 Philly, PA: 92 Atlantic City, NJ: 87 Allentown, PA: 89 Scranton, PA: 89 Pougkeepsie, NY: 86 Hartford, CT: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think the areas that will more likely see 90+ is areas like ERK and other warm spots in NJ. Possibly some warm spots in SENY also. The city has small shot reaching 90 either on Monday or Tuesday but I go with more 85-90 range right now with LI seeing more of SW to W flow is good sign of seeing the warmth and with LI will be from the upper 70's to near 80 on the south shore to east end with onshore flow kicking in and on the north shore could reach the mid 80's though. Could get warmer and the city would have a better shot reach the 90 F mark if little or no cloud interfere. We'll see...the 0z GFS went back to super warm and brings widespread 90-95, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 We'll see...the 0z GFS went back to super warm and brings widespread 90-95, maybe more. Good, enough of the wimpy weather we've been having. Nothing better than seeing a big strong high obliterate everything else and take over the whole pattern and even make the ocean submit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Good, enough of the wimpy weather we've been having. Nothing better than seeing a big strong high obliterate everything else and take over the whole pattern and even make the ocean submit i think the ocean temps on the Jersey shore are running above normal already? this weekend and next week the water will surely be heating up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 i think the ocean temps on the Jersey shore are running above normal already? this weekend and next week the water will surely be heating up I think the NJ coast will be quite warm and the only cooler spots will LI and possibly coastal CT. Even the NJ shore may not too far from reaching 90 F where I think upper 80's is good bet there where today or should say yesterday it well into the 80's where there more sun there. Where on LI clouds dominate and only got into the low to mid 70's and fell back into the upper 60's with that SE wind and the thick marine air came to play. Monday and Tuesday even a good part of LI should get into the 80's except the south shores and eastern end where the onshore winds will kick and know the temps back down through the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think the NJ coast will be quite warm and the only cooler spots will LI and possibly coastal CT. Even the NJ shore may not too far from reaching 90 F where I think upper 80's is good bet there where today or should say yesterday it well into the 80's where there more sun there. Where on LI clouds dominate and only got into the low to mid 70's and fell back into the upper 60's with that SE wind and the thick marine air came to play. Monday and Tuesday even a good part of LI should get into the 80's except the south shores and eastern end where the onshore winds will kick and know the temps back down through the 70's. Im glad Im on the extreme western part of the south shore (about as far west as you can get lol) so I bake even when you guys deal with a marine layer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Im glad Im on the extreme western part of the south shore (about as far west as you can get lol) so I bake even when you guys deal with a marine layer lol. It is a bummer living on the south shore on Suffolk County but better than living on the Eastern end of LI like Montauk where it is practically never warm over there and the marine layer is most if not all the time always thick over there and not many times they get thunderstorms over there because by the time the storms get there the marine air weakens it rapidly while it crosses over good part of Suffolk County and anywhere east of the Hamptons you will always get the marine layer over there. While I still more like on the Western half on the south shore of Suffolk County and about 50 miles east of NYC and good 70 miles or more west of Montauk. Still closer to the city but still get affected alot but the marine air and not good area to live in the spring if you want warmth and severe thunderstorms but although elevated convention makes up for it at times and gives good amount thunder and lightning. Brings a good light show at night when the storms come in at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Watching the news this morning, Channel 5 had low to mid 80s for Mon - Wed of next week and the other channels had mid to upper 80s. Weather channel no higher than 85 for Manhattan: http://beta.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNY0996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here's the 18z DGEX for reference..those are +17 to +18 850 temperatures and 95 F surface temperatures. The cold front crosses around 21z Wednesday with the mid level shortwave passage around 12z Thursday, which still manages to yield 80 F temps on Thursday and lower 70 F temps on Friday with 850 temps near 4 C. That shows 90s all across Long Island, very very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 why is zucker trying to find ways that it wont be hot...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Damn the 90s are so tantalizingly close to here on that map. Like maybe about 5 miles away lol. As you'll notice, the wind trajectory is SW but that's only about 5 miles over water for us, between north coastal NJ and SW Nassau. edit: it looks like the 90 degree line is actually grazing this area on that map haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 why is zucker trying to find ways that it wont be hot...lol Because he doesn't like to be missing out on the fun while the rest of us cash in. One of the drawbacks of being 400 feet above sea level in the summer. On the bright side (for him) he gets about 10 feet of snow a year, so I guess it all evens out And who knows, if it gets cool enough, it might actually snow up on his mountain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 12z ECM backs off on the heat again with a weak cold front moving through late Monday...Tuesday thus is excluded from the real hot days so a heat wave won't verify. 850s are approximately 16-17C Monday, 12-14C Tuesday, 17-18C Wednesday. Starting to doubt we hit 90F in Dobbs Ferry outside of a few hours that it's possible Wednesday afternoon. Sharp cold front arrives Wednesday with potential for thunderstorms, and then below average temperatures for the long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I hope not a back door cold front because they also ruin the chance for thunderstorms and they rarely bring thunderstorms. I could less how hot it gets. As long it gets at least in the 70's for late May and early June that would be warm enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 92 + F on Memorial Day for Central/ NE NJ and NYC on the 00z NAM. West-southwest winds. Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 92 + F on Memorial Day for Central/ NE NJ and NYC on the 00z NAM. West-southwest winds. Win. How is a 9 out of 10 on the bat wing scale a win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Don't be surprised to see storms tomorrow with a weak shortwave around the area providing just enough lift amidst a slightly unstable environment. South be south to north movers and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 OKX just posted mid 90s for MON for KNYC. The mos has 90F as the warmest. Quite a difficult forecast as the other locales around the city are in the 80s. Interesting to see what unfolds. Either way, the holiday gone be hot hot hot away from the ocean influence. Tds? Forgetaboutit. Do your BBQ in shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 OKX just posted mid 90s for MON for KNYC. The mos has 90F as the warmest. Quite a difficult forecast as the other locales around the city are in the 80s. Interesting to see what unfolds. Either way, the holiday gone be hot hot hot away from the ocean influence. Tds? Forgetaboutit. Do your BBQ in shorts! Goldberg on 7 said 90 is possible Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday..... with Tuesday as the hottest of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Goldberg on 7 said 90 is possible Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday..... with Tuesday as the hottest of the bunch. I think Monday looks the warmest right now I don't see Tuesday being the hottest of the bunch. Especially for NYC and other coastal areas. If the GFS is right about the backdoor front: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 GFS MOS now shows an official heat wave for EWR http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The 12z GFS is slower with the backdoor front passage on Tuesday. The MEX has high around 90 for Tuesday and Wednesday for NYC and LGA . I think we are also likely to see 90 on Wed, with convection probably holding till the late day hours. So we can see see an official heat wave in NYC metro, depending on timing/location of the backdoor front on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 This backdoor front on Tuesday is looking less impressive with every run. 850mb temps don't go much 18C during the afternoon hours and winds don't pickup out the SE until around 18z or so. I think EWR,NYC,LGA stations are going to have either low or mid 90s for highs, Mon thru Wed. With perhaps some convective debris and/or marine influence making a just a 2-4 degree difference in highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It will be interesting to see how much an effect the cloud debris from the big MCS over Iowa will have on Monday's temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 That's a southward propagating MCS on the NAM which is diving south on the east end of the ridge axis into a highly unstable environment---wondering if we can get some severe storms both Tuesday & Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 That's a southward propagating MCS on the NAM which is diving south on the east end of the ridge axis into a highly unstable environment---wondering if we can get some severe storms both Tuesday & Wednesday. From what I've seen, any activity should dry up on Tues. Wed is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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