earthlight Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Torch Me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 mid 90's are possible monday if we mix high enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Signals are getting stronger as we approach the event +20 850 temps are showing up on globals now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I hope with the end of the possible heat wave comes at least chance for thunderstorms with threat of isolated severe weather in without any tornadoes with associated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 6z DGEX has 90's on mon,tues,and wed. With wed being the hottest day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 DGEX is mid 90's on Wednesday....looks absolutely glorious....it's so awesome when these big soronan heat ridges start getting into the short to medium range and model guidance starts picking up on the intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 12z ECM backs down on the heat with 850s only around 16-17C instead of >20C as it showed in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 12z ECM backs down on the heat with 850s only around 16-17C instead of >20C as it showed in previous runs. Still mighty warm at the surface though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 850's of +16/17c will easily yield 90F+ at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 welcome to summer boys. Tonight I experienced the first taste of it after coming out of the Shop Rite and feeling the hot sultry humid air still there at 8 PM. I know most of you think I am a loon but this is what summertime is all about. Hoping for 2010 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 welcome to summer boys. Tonight I experienced the first taste of it after coming out of the Shop Rite and feeling the hot sultry humid air still there at 8 PM. I know most of you think I am a loon but this is what summertime is all about. Hoping for 2010 redux Heres hoping for 2003 and your house loses power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 welcome to summer boys. Tonight I experienced the first taste of it after coming out of the Shop Rite and feeling the hot sultry humid air still there at 8 PM. I know most of you think I am a loon but this is what summertime is all about. Hoping for 2010 redux I hope not really. I rather summer of average temps with active thunderstorms season with similar of the summer of 2008 except a bit warmer in August though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 mid 90's are possible monday if we mix high enough Yup Goldberg even mentioned there's a strong chance we hit 90 Monday. One thing he said-- is May 26 on average our first 90 degree day? For some reason I thought the first one is usually in mid June and the last one in early Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Heres hoping for 2003 and your house loses power. That summer wasn't even hot, but that day was the hottest day of the summer-- no sea breeze and mid 90s That black out was so memorable-- I hope we get one of those every year! Wouldn't it be awesome-- all of us posting on here in the dark running on battery power? I was sad when the power came back so soon-- I wanted it to be out 24 hrs haha. Nothing like zero light pollution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 welcome to summer boys. Tonight I experienced the first taste of it after coming out of the Shop Rite and feeling the hot sultry humid air still there at 8 PM. I know most of you think I am a loon but this is what summertime is all about. Hoping for 2010 redux I get as much of a high from a record breaking 100 plus degree day as I do from a 2 foot snowstorm. A summer or winter without one of those is easily forgettable and ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I hope with the end of the possible heat wave comes at least chance for thunderstorms with threat of isolated severe weather in without any tornadoes with associated it. Severe weather Wed looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Severe weather Wed looks good. It still 6 days away and things could change I hope it happens though. I look in the long range models it looks trough and blocking pattern will return so thunderstorms will not be in favor after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Models have clearly moved away from the idea of a long-lived, near-record hot spell. Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS don't get the 20C contour remotely close to NYC for even one day, and they have trended towards a sharper cold front Wednesday with a potential severe weather outbreak and then 850s of 4-6C afterwards. We should see some days in the upper 60s-low 70s later in the week, which will knock some off the positive departures we acquire early on in the week. I wouldn't be shocked if the outlying suburbs make it into the 40s Thursday or Friday night with clear skies and the 850 0C line coming into NNE. Will be great to have a refreshing airmass after the humidity and warmth. This looks wonderful: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Models have clearly moved away from the idea of a long-lived, near-record hot spell. Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS don't get the 20C contour remotely close to NYC for even one day, and they have trended towards a sharper cold front Wednesday with a potential severe weather outbreak and then 850s of 4-6C afterwards. We should see some days in the upper 60s-low 70s later in the week, which will knock some off the positive departures we acquire early on in the week. I wouldn't be shocked if the outlying suburbs make it into the 40s Thursday or Friday night with clear skies and the 850 0C line coming into NNE. Will be great to have a refreshing airmass after the humidity and warmth. This looks wonderful: well, the 00z gfs does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Models have clearly moved away from the idea of a long-lived, near-record hot spell. Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS don't get the 20C contour remotely close to NYC for even one day, and they have trended towards a sharper cold front Wednesday with a potential severe weather outbreak and then 850s of 4-6C afterwards. For one, no model ever showed a record breaking, long lived-heat spell. Second, the 00z GFS shows a broad +20 C 850 contour over the entire Northern Mid Atlantic. Third, the models that don't show +20 C temperatures have temperatures of +17 or greater from the beginning to middle of next week--which can still yield 90's or more for highs. The 18z DGEX is a good example with 850 temps below 20C on Wednesday and 2m temperatures of 95 F. 00z GFS 850 temps for next week: Mon: +17 Tue: +20 Wed: ~+20 (+21 in the morning with a fropa in the evening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here's the 18z DGEX for reference..those are +17 to +18 850 temperatures and 95 F surface temperatures. The cold front crosses around 21z Wednesday with the mid level shortwave passage around 12z Thursday, which still manages to yield 80 F temps on Thursday and lower 70 F temps on Friday with 850 temps near 4 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 well, the 00z gfs does. That looks awesome-- Long Island would be 90+ also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 I know A-L-E-X is foaming at the mouth at the prospect of a west wind and upper teens to 20 C 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's cool to see how the bubble of warmest air within the ridge advects from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I know A-L-E-X is foaming at the mouth at the prospect of a west wind and upper teens to 20 C 850 temps Cant wait! Heat + Yankees + Pool + Drinks haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Man...this is a killer discussion. From KDIX. Important to note the differences in the CWA when they refer to their southern zones--but for the most part this terminology and idea applies to many in this forum as well. THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER APPEAR TO BE FALLING INTO PLACE. A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL HELP BUILD H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH UP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AND HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MAYBE NEXT THURSDAY. OFFICIALLY A HEAT WAVE IS THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90 OR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES NEXT MON-WED WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MORE LIKE WHAT WE WOULD HAVE IN JULY...RATHER THAN LATE MAY. OUR APPARENT TEMPS WHICH PEAKED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 90S TODAY MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S - FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE EARLY AFTN NEXT WEEK.. MON-WED ..WHICH MAY NEED AN EARLY SEASON HEAT ADVISORY. HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED WARMER FOR PORTIONS OF THE MON-WED PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WAS GRIDDED CONSERVATIVELY. PRIOR TO JUNE 16 OUR POLICY IS TO ISSUE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR HI OF 96 OR HIGHER. MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z/26 GEFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE MID WEEK SOLUTION AND SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPING REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL...FOR US HERE IN THE MID ATLC IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WONT BREAK UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF THE THE MONTH A GENERALLY LENGTHY DRY SPELL IS UNFOLDING WITH CONVECTION IF ANY...SEEMINGLY RELEGATED TO THE NW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA...IF ANY. TEMPS FOR THE MONTH ARE GOING TO AVERAGE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL...NOW AVERAGING AROUND 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST 25 DAYS AND THESE DEPARTURES ON THE POSITIVE SIDE WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE MONTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 For one, no model ever showed a record breaking, long lived-heat spell. Second, the 00z GFS shows a broad +20 C 850 contour over the entire Northern Mid Atlantic. Third, the models that don't show +20 C temperatures have temperatures of +17 or greater from the beginning to middle of next week--which can still yield 90's or more for highs. The 18z DGEX is a good example with 850 temps below 20C on Wednesday and 2m temperatures of 95 F. 00z GFS 850 temps for next week: Mon: +17 Tue: +20 Wed: ~+20 (+21 in the morning with a fropa in the evening) You're wrong: there were a couple of runs of the ECM that showed 850mb temperatures well above 20C, which could break records in late May...this was the 12z ECM from Tuesday showing the potential for mid-upper 90s in all areas of NYC metro: 0z GFS goes back to extreme heat, unlike the tempered 18z run, but it does show a lot of cloud cover potential which would limit the temperatures, especially Monday and then possibly again Wednesday: And regardless of what the 18z DGEX, a garbage model, shows...no one is going to see 80s with 850s that low, like 4C, after the cold front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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