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June likely to come in with a summer-like scorch

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see how much an effect the cloud debris from the big MCS over Iowa will have on Monday's temperatures.

I think it will have little impact on the maxes, if the 12z NAM is correct. It has it falling apart to our west tomorrow morning. Then it has the mid-level heights are rising and a light low-level NW downslope flow, in afternoon hours, which should both help clear out skies and warm up quickly. Also with WAA aloft, increasing as the day goes on, we might see our highs between 4-6pm tomorrow.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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I think it will have little impact on the maxes, if the 12z NAM is correct. It has it falling apart to our west tomorrow morning. Then it has the mid-level heights are rising and a light low-level NW downslope flow, in afternoon hours, which should both help clear out skies and warm up quickly. Also with WAA aloft, increasing as the day goes on, we might see our highs between 4-6pm tomorrow.

I think that any morning leftover clouds should clear the area by around mid-day or so.

The only wildcard after that is will the weak front near the area provide enough convergence

for some afternoon CU or thunderstorm development?

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
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I think that any morning leftover clouds should clear the area by around mid-day or so.

The only wildcard after that is will the weak front near the area provide enough convergence

for some afternoon CU or thunderstorm development?

That could happen with enough instability. But with the heights rising aloft tomorrow afternoon, it would put lid on alot of t-storm development.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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That could happen with enough instability. But with the heights rising aloft tomorrow afternoon, it would put lid on alot of t-storm development.

Yeah,we'll see how it goes.If you compromise between the NAM and GFS MOS for tomorrow NYC gets to 89 degrees.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
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Yeah,we'll see how it goes.If you compromise between the NAM and GFS MOS for tomorrow NYC gets to 89 degrees.

NAM MOS has 88 for NYC 92 for LGA and 90 EWR for Monday. What are the chances that LGA wind up warmer than both EWR and NYC tomorrow.

Also interesting that 12z GFS MEX has 90 for LGA,NYC,EWR on Thursday and mid-upper 80s into next weekend. I think people who were looking for highs in the 70s later this week, are going to be disappointed.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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Today's my 6th day of 80F+ temps with a very summery/sultry feel outside.

My departures this week:

Tuesday: +13

Wednesday: +9

Thursday: +11

Friday: +14

Saturday: +13

Today so far: +11

+71 for the stretch thus far, and I'll be tacking on a few +15 to +20 days through June 1st with high temps probably near 90F or higher.

Even in the NYC airports, allthough temps have been cooler up there, I think its safe to say the idea for a pattern reversal to much more humid/summery wx with temps in the 80s was a good one. Temps will spike to close out this warm period, and the cool down late next week is looking less and less impressive.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Even in the NYC airports, allthough temps have been cooler up there, I think its safe to say the idea for a pattern reversal to much more humid/summery wx with temps in the 80s was a good one. Temps will spike to close out this warm period, and the cool down late next week is looking less and less impressive.

The 12z GFS just completely eliminated any cooldown for us...the upper low tracks further north, and we just get a couple of seasonable days followed by more heat. By the weekend, the 20C isotherm is sitting just to our south again, way above average for early June, could be more 90s. You can see that there's a real lack of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere right now...not sure why this is happening but it's quite disturbing:

Currently 84.1/73 and rising here. Just another typical late May day in Jersey.

81/72 here, just disgusting. I had to install the AC unit last night against my wishes, just too uncomfortable in the house with such humid weather and an unseasonable low of 65.6F. Can't believe we're getting day after day of 70+ dews in May. Summer starts a bit earlier every year, except 2009 LOL.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Crazy to watch how the GFS maintains the ridge..even after the cold front Wednesday..the 10 c isotherm at 850 doesn't get south of Vermont..and the 850's are rising again by Friday.

Yeah, we'd still be well above average following the cold front with highs in the low 80s. Originally, the GFS knocked the 10C contour well south of us with highs in the upper 60s-low 70s, but now it has completely eliminated this chilly airmass and just re-establishes the subtropical ridge with more troughing in the West/Pacific Coast. We're back to 588dm heights by Day 5 or Day 6.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

NAM MOS has 88 for NYC 92 for LGA and 90 EWR for Monday. What are the chances that LGA wind up warmer than both EWR and NYC tomorrow.

Also interesting that 12z GFS MEX has 90 for LGA,NYC,EWR on Thursday and mid-upper 80s into next weekend. I think people who were looking for highs in the 70s later this week, are going to be disappointed.

ECMWF still signals a reasonable cool-down for THU/FRI.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
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ECMWF still signals a reasonable cool-down for THU/FRI.

I only have access to the free maps. But I suspect it's overdone. The 0z run last, with huge cut-off low next weekend over Canadian Maritimes than retrograding back into New England, keep the -10C line to the south. The ensemble mean that did not support such solution and the GFS and it ensemble mean have been ahead of Euro and it's ensemble mean on the pattern 7-10 day range, the last few weeks. First with the cut-low low over the East the week before, and with the heat this week. And while all the models have a hard time with forecasting ULLs and Euro should not totally be disregarded. The 12z Euro run is further east with ULL, and tries to bring heat back next weekend:

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Just finished a forecast discussion on the blog. Check it dudes. Covers the heat, the storms, the clouds, etc. Have an awesome night.

http://nymetrowx.blo...discussion.html

Very informative and professionally written discussion, John...I'm impressed!

The 12z ECM, however, does show a much cooler regime in the medium to long range than the 12z GFS. It says that once the heat leaves Wednesday, it's over, with below average temperatures Thursday-Saturday and then near normal in the long-range with 80/60 and clear being the dominant weather. You seem to be leaning towards the GFS, correct, with its warmer depiction?

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I am starting to think I need to spend this summer out west again, like last year in MT.

High dewpoints day after day in May isn't exactly what I consider great weather.

Give me torching dry heat over this any day-- maybe we're saving that for July ;) It's good to see there's no cold air anywhere-- we're heading into summer, there doesn't need to be cold air.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

0z GFS is hot Monday/Tuesday, but there look to be a lot of clouds/showers in the warm sector Wednesday, so we'd probably stay in the mid 80s if correct.

GFS is still insisting that there will be no major cooldown following the heat wave...850s remain above 10C Thursday at 18z with a stiff westerly downsloping flow, allowing temperatures to once again reach well into the 80s. Friday is a bit cooler as the Canadian airmass finally reaches the metro area, but the upper ridge builds back in quickly...Saturday looks like another scorcher with 20C 850s up to PHL by the early evening, and Sunday isn't much better:

Flow is SSW on Saturday, so expect the usual coastal locations not to get much above 80F with the interior 85-90. Sunday looks warm for everyone if the GFS is correct, 850s of 16-17C with a W/NW downsloping wind. Don't expect any relief on the coastal plain if this pattern verifies.

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