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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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I agree, certainly dont see any big breaks in this ongoing parade of storms for the past 4 months lol. La-Nina is the problem. I'm just hoping this year does not end up like 2009 (summer)...Last year at this time I was at the beach' it was a El-Nino year tho, make a big difference.

Really do not want to think of a 2009 repeat, ugh

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2009.. Was almost unreal. So out of the norm. I think it would be difficult to have a repeat.

My memory of Summer 2009....Most of the summer featured pleasant weather..Trouble was that most of the nice Summer days took place on work days (mon-fri). It was the weekends that completely sucked they were marked by rain and cool temps ( upper 60s-low 70s) . I counted only 3 nice weekends that entire summer! Cut-off Low after Cut-off Low every single weekend. Funny because Saturdays would suck then Sunday would clear out and by Monday it was 78 and not a cloud in the sky until Fri..LOL

I will say Summer 2009 was good for a couple reasons..The lack of humidity and heat caused just wonderful open window weather and easy sleeping. Also the lack of heat made many peoples gardens and lawns very lush and productive.

If for some odd reason we have a quasi repeat of Summer 2009...Lets hope the rain and cool temps happen during the work week to allow just beautiful pleasant Weekends!!

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Wow, widespread frost expected the next few nights. Talk about a kick in the crotch kind of spring. Trees are still just barely opening their buds. Some of the slower trees are still completely bare looking lmao. Just unbelievable.

EDIT: In 7 weeks the days start getting shorter again. Just thought I'd throw that out there. :snowwindow:

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What do we need to break this pattern? I can't believe this summer ends up like 2009.

I think we get real cool after the middle of next week. NAO is tanked, AO is tanked, and the PNA looks to rage positive. Very bad signs to say the least. I would expect more 50's and 60's with very few 70 plus temps, I also doubt we see more than 2 or 3 80 degree temps. I am not sure we are going down the path of 2009 but it seems with everything occuring right now, and all the wet soils and cold in Canada, we may see a cooler than 2009 summer, just a gut feeling, but this summer has that kind of feeling. Want to break the pattern...move form Wisconsin to the sunbelt, then you laugh at these summer discussions since you would never have to worry about them.

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I think we get real cool after the middle of next week. NAO is tanked, AO is tanked, and the PNA looks to rage positive. Very bad signs to say the least. I would expect more 50's and 60's with very few 70 plus temps, I also doubt we see more than 2 or 3 80 degree temps. I am not sure we are going down the path of 2009 but it seems with everything occuring right now, and all the wet soils and cold in Canada, we may see a cooler than 2009 summer, just a gut feeling, but this summer has that kind of feeling. Want to break the pattern...move form Wisconsin to the sunbelt, then you laugh at these summer discussions since you would never have to worry about them.

Cooler than 2009? That's nearly impossible.

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I gotta go with Chicago WX, next 7-10 days look progressively better. Possibly blowing off with a torch before colder weather comes again. I like a late month reversal and hot pattern to develope by late May, back off a bit in early June and come in for good around June 10th.

Temps been solidly in the mid-60's/low 70's for the last week. Can't complain.

What do you think in terms of severe weather for the Great Lakes in the next month or two? This is when we tend to make hay in terms of severe weather, with June, July and May being the most active tornado months in Wisconsin respectively.

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What do you think in terms of severe weather for the Great Lakes in the next month or two? This is when we tend to make hay in terms of severe weather, with June, July and May being the most active tornado months in Wisconsin respectively.

Kenosha and north = Cold rain

Kenosha and south = Cash in on severe weather.

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I think we get real cool after the middle of next week. NAO is tanked, AO is tanked, and the PNA looks to rage positive. Very bad signs to say the least. I would expect more 50's and 60's with very few 70 plus temps, I also doubt we see more than 2 or 3 80 degree temps. I am not sure we are going down the path of 2009 but it seems with everything occuring right now, and all the wet soils and cold in Canada, we may see a cooler than 2009 summer, just a gut feeling, but this summer has that kind of feeling. Want to break the pattern...move form Wisconsin to the sunbelt, then you laugh at these summer discussions since you would never have to worry about them.

Not a snowballs chance in hell .

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A historic write up on "Cool Mays" by William Deedler

COLD MAY--SUMMER INDICATOR?

ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING (AND SOMEWHAT SURPRISING) DATA REVIEWED WAS THE COLDEST MAY DATA AND THE SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS. LAST MAY WAS INDEED IN THE TOP 20 COLDEST (IN FACT, UP UNTIL THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF MAY, THE MONTH HOVERED AROUND THE THIRD COLDEST MAY IN DETROIT, SECOND COLDEST IN FLINT AND THE COLDEST MAY IN SAGINAW). A WARM SPELL LATE IN THE MONTH RESULTED IN DETROIT "WARMING" TO THE 16TH COLDEST MAY, FLINT THE 11TH COLDEST AND SAGINAW THE 12TH COLDEST MAY. THEREFORE, THE PREVIOUS TOP 20 COLDEST MAYS IN DETROIT AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS WERE RESEARCHED TO SEE IF THERE WAS MUCH OF A CORRELATION BETWEEN A COLD MAY AND COOL SUMMER. AND, WHILE THE DATA SUGGESTED THERE WAS A DECENT CHANCE A COOL SUMMER WOULD FOLLOW OUR COLD MAY (OUT OF THE 20 COLDEST MAYS IN DETROIT, 16 SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL), THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE CASE THIS PAST SUMMER. IT MUST BE NOTED (AND ALSO MENTIONED IN THE COLDEST MAY RESEARCH) THAT A BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR ANY MAY DID NOT SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL SUMMER, SINCE ONLY THE TOP 20 COLDEST MAYS WERE CHECKED.

ONE ITEM, HOWEVER, NOTED IN THE MAY DATA THAT DID COME TO PASS WAS THE FOLLOWING:

"THIS DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT WHEN RESEARCHING THE TOP 20 COOL MAYS ONLY, THE COOL LATE SPRING PATTERN BASICALLY TENDED TO "HANG AROUND" INTO, AT LEAST, EARLY SUMMER."

AS WAS THE CASE THIS SUMMER, TEMPERATURES AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID JUNE BEFORE MOTHER NATURE TURNED ON THE HEAT AND TURNED OFF THE WATER.

http://www.crh.noaa...._review.php#may

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The 00z Euro sure did a reversal. This latest run digs a large trough in the west, bumping up an equally large warm/hot dome all the way to the lakes. There would easily be a string of 80s around here beyond day 6. We can only hope it's not just a little blip before going back to the near to below normal pattern on future runs.

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The 00z Euro sure did a reversal. This latest run digs a large trough in the west, bumping up an equally large warm/hot dome all the way to the lakes. There would easily be a string of 80s around here beyond day 6. We can only hope it's not just a little blip before going back to the near to below normal pattern on future runs.

0z EURO ensembles show the same ridge. Let's hope.

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The 00z Euro sure did a reversal. This latest run digs a large trough in the west, bumping up an equally large warm/hot dome all the way to the lakes. There would easily be a string of 80s around here beyond day 6. We can only hope it's not just a little blip before going back to the near to below normal pattern on future runs.

sounds awesome

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GFS also hinted at that ridge towards the end of the 7 day.

GGEM showed our Omega Block continuing, with most of us safely on the bad side.

The GGEM has to be the biggest buzz kill model! :arrowhead:

DTX...

THE 00Z ECMWF

AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE LIKELY

SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH

AMPLITUDE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES APPEARING INCREASINGLY

LIKELY. THOUGH THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS

OBVIOUSLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD

PLACING IT NEAR OR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH WOULD BODE WELL

FOR OUR AREA.

I hate the waiting game for nice weather.

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0252 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

..DISCUSSION

ON FRI/D4...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS

A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BENEATH A WEAK NWLY FLOW

ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WHILE STRONG HEATING MAY

RESULT IN CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE...ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE

PARTICULARLY SEVERE WITH ONLY 50S DEWPOINTS AND CAPPING CONCERNS.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY

FRIDAY NIGHT DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON

THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS.

THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...BUT

PREDICTABILITY AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DO NOT WARRANT SEVERE AREAS AT

THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT

BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE

WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE

PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING

FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO

TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE

PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN

SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

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