jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 81.5oF here. Ready for a tornado watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nashville is about to get wrecked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I see vorts down in LA and one just popped in NW Alabama headed into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Was thinking the same thing a little while ago. It's nice and warm but it just doesn't feel like storms are on the way. A little bit dissappointed and confused with the wind today. Not getting many significant gusts here, despite the fact that athens, atlanta, and everywhere else are showing gusts into the 25 to 35 range. Atlanta had a gust to 38 mph at noon. Not sure why in the world I'm not seeing these winds. Not a big fan of squall lines since most of the time they are only ho hum by the time they get here or I go through the only hole in the entire line. Starting to see some isolated convection forming ahead of the line and am hoping that happens here because chances are atlanta will weaken that line. Indeed, this could be a good example of a line of storms weakening after they pass atlanta. Normally it's either almost immediate or it happens by the time it hits athens. However, maybe the speed of this line will not allow much weakening by the time it gets here. I hope anyway. CAE....... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE FRONT IS AMPLIFYING A BIT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GENERALLY DURING THE 07Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST NCEP WRF ALSO IN LINE WITH THIS TIMING AND SHOW CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM YESTERDAY...STILL SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WITH STRONG SHEAR DRIVEN BY 70 TO 75 KT 850H JET. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK AND HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN WEATHER GRIDS. COULD BE SOME STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. CATEGORICAL POPS MAXIMIZED DURING THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH AROUND A HALF INCH AVERAGE QPF EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING GIVEN THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUED MIXING WITH STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THINKING THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE A BIT AND COOL ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY IN THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 EAST AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH TEH DAY AND IS OFFSET BY CLEARING SKIES.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 213 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011 TNC037-149-187-189-041930- /O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110404T1930Z/ WILLIAMSON TN-RUTHERFORD TN-DAVIDSON TN-WILSON TN- 213 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL WILSON... SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT... AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRENTWOOD...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLIN... MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT COOL SPRINGS IN NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Some tornadic action going on for parts of central TN as of this post within the Nashville area. 4 counties are under the warning right now (Cheatham, Davidson, Roberston, and Sumner counties). http://www.wundergro...shville%2c%20TN EDIT(3:53pm): You can see another line up of storms developing just west of the Appalachians ahead of the main line. For anyone living in the Nashville region, you can watch the live coverage here: http://www.wkrn.com/category/206047/live-weather-coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Looks like some echos trying to get going in N. Georgia. I have a north facing window at work just north of Atlanta and the clouds have definitely grown in height to the North over the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Watched Nashville get hit live on one of the feeds there ( channel 5) was a nasty line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 One up to 40K ft in AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Had a 59mph gust recorded at the airport in Nashville. Currently 83 here with gusty winds but nothing too out of the ordinary. Dew points have finally started to slowly rise with a current reading of 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Temps across GA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 why hello there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 The SPC has moved the Moderate Rish area into WNC: (Edited to remove image which Weatherkid#27 beat me to posting ) and the counties just west of me have been put on a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Some showers are currently going through Swian County, where there is (or was) a 40 acre forest fire burning. I'll be out seeing if I can get some shots of the lightning tonight. I can hear thunder!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 RUC doesn't have the storms in the moutains now on simulated reflectivity but has the main line not even reaching the border of TN/NC until 9z. I think it might be a bit slow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 RUC doesn't have the storms in the moutains now on simulated reflectivity but has the main line not even reaching the border of TN/NC until 9z. I think it might be a bit slow there. Here is a radar image of the line of storms coming through western North Carolina right now. I may get hit by the southernmost edge: The storm designated P1 shows a 20% chance of hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Alright well the Braves just won, so I'm ready to sit back and watch em roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 The storm designated P1 shows a 20% chance of hail... Wow! My info shows an 80% chance of no hail. Amazing difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Alright well the Braves just won, so I'm ready to sit back and watch em roll in. LOL. We don't get much in the way of severe weather in the mounatins...so 20% is a big deal for me. I understand you flatlanders have all the luck when it comes to hail. I'll take what i can get ʘ‿ʘ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 80s out ahead of the front. and upper 40s behind the front per some readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Hearing some thunder with a shower of to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 New MSD from SPC....TW going to be issued farther east in a matter of minutes MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...NW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 042128Z - 042230Z NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA FROM SE LA NEWD INTO NW GA. EXTENSIVE QLCS SPANS THE OH VLY TO THE WRN GULF COAST AT 21Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG TWO-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 4.5 MB FROM NEAR JACKSON NEWD TO BIRMINGHAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BOOST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE ZONE LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG CAP AHEAD OF THE QLCS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...BOWS/LEWPS WILL BRING CORRIDORS OF VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 low pressure forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 95NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011 TORNADO WATCH 95 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS GAC011-013-015-045-047-055-057-063-067-077-083-085-089-097-111- 113-115-117-121-123-129-135-139-143-149-157-187-199-213-223-227- 233-281-285-291-295-311-313-050400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0095.110404T2155Z-110405T0400Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FULTON GILMER GORDON GWINNETT HALL HARALSON HEARD JACKSON LUMPKIN MERIWETHER MURRAY PAULDING PICKENS POLK TOWNS TROUP UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD $$ ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... Tornado Watch for parts of Georgia now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 low pressure forming? Looks very possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR IS PRESENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AL PORTION OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 A few hail pellets earlier, thunder and lightning with a few rain drops now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I am growing increasingly concerned about the night time tornado risk across the Carolina's. This storm means business. I hope everyone has there weather radio in alert mode tonight, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Seems odd that the tornado watch wasn't extended north into TN and KY even though numerous tornado warnings have continued to be issued there, 2 now as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 80s out ahead of the front. and upper 40s behind the front per some readings. Very impressive temp gradient, especially across ms. Finally got a few gusts into the 30s the last couple of hours but most of the day it has not been that windy here...pretty strange. Needed it too, it got to 85 but it felt hotter. Radar looks pretty decent. Will be interesting to see if any stronger storms will continue to form out ahead of the line. I'm hoping the orientation of the line and NE movement of the cells will help maintain it further east than what we normally see after it passes the atlanta kill zone. The line has certainly slowed down a good bit from earlier that's for sure, probably due to that low in ms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Dr. Tim Coleman's new post on ABC 33/40's weather blog: No one ever said meteorology is easy. A squall line that was pushing rapidly SE 2 hours ago had a low pressure area develop along it, allowing the northern part of the line to move on ahead, but the southern part to slow down. Pressures are falling very rapidly now in central Alabama, indicating that low pressure area is headed our way. The low causes winds at the surface to back around to the SE, increasing helicity for storm rotation. Interestingly, the air got so warm today (low 80s) that we mixed a little dry air down from aloft, and dewpoints have dropped slightly since 3 pm, to near 60. However, with the sun going down, moisture from the ground, and south winds, dewpoints will rise again, into the lower 60s by 7 pm. With the low pressure area and still unstable air, any storms in the squall line may produce tornadoes. This is still a dangerous storm situation, and I think the worst of it may be coming in the next 3 hours. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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