Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GGEm has the second wave going neutral/slightly negative and delivering a few inches to new york and eastern ohio. Nowcast more than any storm with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS ensembles maybe a bit slower with the front, but none of them wrap up the 2nd storm as far west like the GEM/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 7% chance. 12z EURO at 48 looks like it'd be in between the NAM/RGEM and the GFS/UKIE. Not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/14359-march-4-6-potential-winter-storm/page__view__findpost__p__522339 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__522339 lol lol well you tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/14359-march-4-6-potential-winter-storm/page__view__findpost__p__522339 lol Not that it can't happen this winter but it's gonna be tough to top the Groundhog storm from a regional perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Not that it can't happen this winter but it's gonna be tough to top the Groundhog storm from a regional perspective. If it were though now would be the time to do it or say between now and early April. Just gotta get the right ingredients to come together. I honestly still think the potential is there for something to exceed it and greatly so but whether it is realized or not is another thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 lol well you tried. I'm a weenie at heart and always will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 -RA and 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 straw grasping time. The weenie's last refuge: A LITTLE more phasing between the two s/ws over the Plains at 18 on the 18z NAM compared to 24 on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 By 36, there's definitely less separation between the two s/ws. Sfc low in the deep south is a bit NE of where it was at 12z, and a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 59 at MDW, 51 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 HRRR is back up if anyone is interested...(it was dona before due to server/computer problems) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Had a nice little thunderstorm move through not to long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 59 at MDW, 51 at ORD. I was up to 56F here earlier, but it has since fallen back into the mid 40's as the front pushed back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Maybe a few inches Saturday night isn't looking like such a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Precip getting ready to move in from the SE, 37° F at the airport and 36.7° F on the met building and dropping as evaporational cooling starts. It'll start as rain, but will switch over late this evening to snow. Should be fun to watch the transition. Looking at an about inch total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Temp dropping fast at the met building, 36.2° F. Precip must be getting to just above the surface. That won't last long. It's actually kind of exciting to see rain, we don't see much up here it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Rain and 42 here. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 4km WRF shows a weak deformation zone basically stalling over southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois all day tomorrow. I didn't look at the QPF, but if it were to pan out it would at least snow all day in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Models have been waffling with the placement of the heaviest band, but we'll have to watch it. From a river standpoint, it also matters what falls upstream. No doubt that eyes for the Wabash focus on what happens up north. Still, looks like we'll miss the brunt of this system locally. Far cry from what the models had for us 4 or so days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 By March's standards, this is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 By March's standards, this is a hit I'm so out of the loop with this storm, but is that a legit/possible outcome for YBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 No doubt that eyes for the Wabash focus on what happens up north. Still, looks like we'll miss the brunt of this system locally. Far cry from what the models had for us 4 or so days ago. I haven't really used the HRRR for convective precip amounts so I'm not sure how it does, but it's picking up on some of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm so out of the loop with this storm, but is that a legit/possible outcome for YBY? My great shame is that I don't know what city YBY is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I haven't really used the HRRR for convective precip amounts so I'm not sure how it does, but it's picking up on some of the banding. We'll have to watch that. My great shame is that I don't know what city YBY is. Your backyard silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 We'll have to watch that. Your backyard silly. lol, I thought it was some Canadian IACO code. Yeah, it's possible I guess, but it's not the dumping the GFS was showing 4 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 lol, I thought it was some Canadian IACO code. Well I would've properly put a C first. EDIT: Good luck then. Anyway's legit threat for snowfall for you and the ON crew in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 My great shame is that I don't know what city YBY is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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