Powerball Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS much improved over here DET: SUN 00Z 06-MAR -2.0 -1.1 1017 97 95 0.21 552 539 SUN 06Z 06-MAR -3.8 -3.0 1020 96 91 0.12 549 534 SUN 12Z 06-MAR -5.7 -4.3 1023 95 42 0.02 545 528 So it's 0.14" of snow (that 0.21" is based on the SAT 18Z 05 MAR temperature profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS much improved over here DET: SUN 00Z 06-MAR -2.0 -1.1 1017 97 95 0.21 552 539 SUN 06Z 06-MAR -3.8 -3.0 1020 96 91 0.12 549 534 SUN 12Z 06-MAR -5.7 -4.3 1023 95 42 0.02 545 528 It seems like this has been the Winter of model surprises and last minute changes. Thinking we have yet another NowCaster ahead of us. Although with the prospect of over an inch of rain..things may start off as a slop on the pavement then rapidly change to an icey mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So it's 0.14" of snow (that 0.21" is based on the SAT 18Z 05 MAR temperature profiles Yeah, hard to tell how much of that .21 is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS maintains good continuity. Somebody should euthanize the NAM. Put it out of its misery. Seems like the gfs is going more towards the nams idea, at least around my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Seems like the gfs is going more towards the nams idea, at least around my location. NAM moves a 1000mb from C PA to C NY. GFS has the same low up the coast to eastern Long Island. I don't know about the sensible wx effects in yby, but from a broader perspective, they're pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah, hard to tell how much of that .21 is snow. Judging from the 21z SAT 05 MAR temperature profiles, about half of it is snow. So it's about .25" total all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I do NOT love a rainy night at this time lol. still mostly snowcovered here in residential areas, and theres already standing water everywhere. id rather keep it then turn into a more watery mess. the only interesting thing will be the already dense huge snowpiles in parking lots. they will have so much water in them they will be there til at least late april unless we have an april torch in the 80s. As i was driving home I noticed someones lawn (slightly uneven ground fwiw) was quite interesting...half snow, half water...thats how saturated it is here. And now lo and behold, are these last minute model trends of bringing us snow or perhaps the trend is our friend? We might hit the 60" mark on the season by tomorrow at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 A little odd to me, but LAF didn't report an hourly ob at 9:54 looking at wunderground...yet has intra-hour obs after that time. Anyway, highly doubt we get close to an inch of rain, nevertheless higher amounts that the models kept advertising for here. Good for us. What makes you say that? Edit: looking at estimated radar totals to this point, looks like maybe close to a half inch around here so far. Radar doesn't always tell the story but the radar estimates were pretty good this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Where are the OH posters? Eastern half of the state gets a dumping. We've had a bit of talk in our Ohio thread the past few days. Seems the NAM has sniffed around this idea for the past 2 days of varying degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm hearing some pingers, so what had been a light to moderate rain has now turned over to sleet, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm hearing some pingers, so what had been a light to moderate rain has now turned over to sleet, I believe. Though I might of heard something like that hitting the window also but was to lazy to get up after sitting down for the 1st time today comfortably. Just peaked and its pingers and big parachute flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Been snowing for awhile, still rain mixing in. 33° F so barely getting accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Picked up about a half inch of rain so far from this system. Still a cold rain falling out there right now with a temp of 36. May get some wet snow later but doubt it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I've noticed the precip growing out in eastern Iowa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hmmm...GFS ensemble mean is much more like the NAM than the OP GFS, especially though 36, with a much deeper sfc low along the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Euro gives DTW .25" frozen precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hmmm...GFS ensemble mean is much more like the NAM than the OP GFS, especially though 36, with a much deeper sfc low along the Apps. Nowcast baby. It is the destiny of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Euro gives DTW .25" frozen precip... Hate to be that guy, but you could you give me the frozen QPF for YYZ? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hate to be that guy, but you could you give me the frozen QPF for YYZ? Thanks. Looks like .45", although some of it may be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hate to be that guy, but you could you give me the frozen QPF for YYZ? Thanks. YYZ SUN 06Z 06-MAR -0.7 -0.8 1015 95 95 0.26 551 540 SUN 12Z 06-MAR -3.6 -2.5 1018 85 97 0.14 549 536 SUN 18Z 06-MAR -1.6 -3.5 1019 63 54 0.04 547 532 MON 00Z 07-MAR -4.8 -4.9 1022 65 24 0.01 545 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nowcast baby. It is the destiny of this one. Yup. I'll be keeping an eye on the gulf coast later today to see where this baby pops. If I can keep it out of Georgia, good things will probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looks like .45", although some of it may be borderline. YYZ Thanks guys. Some of that initial stuff would be mixed probably, but better than the 12z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 YYZ For those text outputs, is the temperatures is gives you from the beginning or the end of the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yup. I'll be keeping an eye on the gulf coast later today to see where this baby pops. If I can keep it out of Georgia, good things will probably happen. Hating on Georgia eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hating on Georgia eh You should too if you want those 40 smackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 For those text outputs, is the temperatures is gives you from the beginning or the end of the period? end, so 00Z sunday would be the temp at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The WRF NMM doesn't look to shabby. Has the low in central WV at hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The WRF NMM doesn't look to shabby. Has the low in central WV at hour 45. Shoot me a link to that man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Shoot me a link to that man For CLE this is all frozen, with a nice deform band overhead at the last frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nice band of snow along I-71 in Ohio at hour 48. Sure has been fun watching the models evolve over this storm the past 3 days. If it does pan out, could be a very long duration snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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