ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We are obscenely overdue for a big late March or early April event...hopefully this year breaks that streak. We said March has been a dud for years, but its continuing this year...so this is a great example of showing that just because we are "due", it doesn't mean jack. March is due, but the weather doesn't give a flip....it will give us another 10 terrible Marches in a row if it wants to. Mother nature can be cruel like that. But hopefully climo can try to even it out with a monster this year. I'm a patient man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We are obscenely overdue for a big late March or early April event...hopefully this year breaks that streak. We said March has been a dud for years, but its continuing this year...so this is a great example of showing that just because we are "due", it doesn't mean jack. March is due, but the weather doesn't give a flip....it will give us another 10 terrible Marches in a row if it wants to. Mother nature can be cruel like that. But hopefully climo can try to even it out with a monster this year. Yup, we say the same thing during tropical season. Personally, I would love to see a March 1956 type storm, even if it happens a week or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12/7, a little dust on the crust here when I got back last night. A beatdown of the snowpack but it's still alive and kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We are obscenely overdue for a big late March or early April event...hopefully this year breaks that streak. We said March has been a dud for years, but its continuing this year...so this is a great example of showing that just because we are "due", it doesn't mean jack. March is due, but the weather doesn't give a flip....it will give us another 10 terrible Marches in a row if it wants to. Mother nature can be cruel like that. But hopefully climo can try to even it out with a monster this year. Yeah... climo just evened out up here after several awful March months with that past storm. BTV just registered its 3rd largest snowstorm in the past 120 years, and greatest March snowfall during that same record period. It beat out Valentines Day 2007 by a tenth of an inch. .CLIMATE... THE FOLLOWING IS OUR SNOWFALL NUMBERS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SOUTH BURLINGTON VERMONT THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY. THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS 25.8 INCHES. THE 25.8 INCHES IS THE HEAVIEST MARCH SNOWSTORM EVER AT BTV...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 22.9 INCHES ON MARCH 5TH THRU THE 6TH OF 2001. TOP 5 GREATEST SNOWSTORMS AT BTV: 1.) 33.1" JAN 2-3 2010 2.) 29.8" DEC 25-28 1969 3.) 25.8" PRESENT STORM 4.) 25.7" FEB 14-15 2007 5.) 24.7" JAN 13-14 1934 We can't say March has sucked anymore up here... but SNE is still due for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I jut find it funny how people can sit a a computer day after day saying Winter is done while there are so many Winter sports still going strong. You see what you want to see. It's easy to say because it's March 8th and there's not much hope in the forecastable future (next 7-10 days). That takes us right to the doorstep of astronomical spring by which date the vast majority of New Englanders generally have seen their last snow storm of the season. I see planes landing at LGA and the Manhattan skyline from my part of SNE, which isn't representative of the rest of New England climate obviously, but three-quarters of New Englanders do live in CT, RI, or MA of which most are near the coast or in low elevations. Throwing in the towel this time of year with an unfavorable pattern for the next week or two is a fair assessment. You have another month of winter - or more accurately spring weather with some frozen precipitation interspersed - but that's no more a representative climate for most people than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Wachusett back up to 14 trails open after having 3 yesterday around 11AM If my dog is ok hopefully I can enjoy some late winter schussing this evening Friday might be a disaster for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I'm a patient man. When I think winter may be winding down, I have to remind myself that we got our biggest storm of the season last year on April 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Sounds like we are starting to lose some of our winter hardcore enthusiast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Sounds like we are starting to lose some of our winter hardcore enthusiast It's just the doldrums right now. Nothing really to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It does appear that the transient Rockies ridge at Day 6-7 does have some good support in the 00z, 06z GFS OP and ensembles and the Euro Op and Euro ensembles. Let's see if we can get a nice shortwave to materialize. can't even get the NAM to run on time this month either...epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I hate 40F and drizzle, and I hate cold wind when I'm fishing, I hate snow when I think it should be warm out, and I hate warm air when I think it should be snowing out. Other than that, I love all kinds of weather At this time of year, I just wait and watch. And there generally isn't much advance warning of something like this (from April 5 2007): On the other hand, 3 years later this is what the backyard looked like at about the same time of year: It's all good... unless we get 3 weeks of 40F and drizzle with cold winds in which case I'll be ranting like Charlie Sheen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's funny... the whole March shutout thing has given me the mindset that it doesn't snow in March, nevermind April (or May!). As Will has said, just because we are "due" doesn't mean squat. But I think we are due... 3" of rain Sunday/Monday could have been awesome snow... ahh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I hate 40F and drizzle, and I hate cold wind when I'm fishing, I hate snow when I think it should be warm out, and I hate warm air when I think it should be snowing out. Other than that, I love all kinds of weather At this time of year, I just wait and watch. And there generally isn't much advance warning of something like this (from April 5 2007): On the other hand, 3 years later this is what the backyard looked like at about the same time of year: It's all good... unless we get 3 weeks of 40F and drizzle with cold winds in which case I'll be ranting like Charlie Sheen Last spring was just insane with how early it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's funny... the whole March shutout thing has given me the mindset that it doesn't snow in March, nevermind April (or May!). As Will has said, just because we are "due" doesn't mean squat. But I think we are due... 3" of rain Sunday/Monday could have been awesome snow... ahh well Yeah it doesn't mean shiat...but eventually we'll get ours. Usually it comes in one or two good storms...I don't think we get the nickel and dime events...especially on the coast. Interior sometimes does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 By the way...here is a great one stop shopping link from CPC. It has everything. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/lltools.pri.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 can't even get the NAM to run on time this month either...epic fail NCEP must of already switched it to DST........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's just the doldrums right now. Nothing really to talk about. Sure there is, rain, mud and floods.............lol By the way...here is a great one stop shopping link from CPC. It has everything. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/lltools.pri.php Scott, Thanks for the link.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't think the pattern looks that horrible going foward... The PNA is rising...the NAO is falling slightly towards nuetral... and there are a few marginal threats in the extended range. Any thoughts from others on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's been a long 20 years. Were there any legitimate threats/brushes other than Belle between Donna in 1960 and Gloria in 1985? Gloria is what got me interested in weather when I was 8 and it was a huge disappointment. I only had a trace a rain and although I have never seen any official wind gusts out of Newport I'm not even sure Newport gusted to hurricane force. I was 15 miles too far west to experience the absolute worst of Bob but I gusted to 100-105 for up to 90 minutes and although I barely had an inch of rain it was still a great storm to experience. Has anyone from the SNE crew ever considered heading down south to chase a Gulf or Florida hurricane? Picture it...it's 10pm and a CAT 4 is heading out of the Bahamas headed toward Fort Lauderdale. The SNE weenines are the only non-media people still in the hotel on A1A. Wiz is more concerned about the tornado threat 40 miles west of I95....Messenger's complaining about the models, saying it's heading toward Daytona...Ginx, Jerry, Will, Ray, and Scooter are busy checking out Stephanie Abrams, MRG is ranting and raving about this big winter that's incoming and even Jim Cantore thinks he's nuts...Geraldo's doing everything in his power to make himself the center of attention...and of course..since it's 10pm...even with a CAT 4 barreling toward the wealthiest strip of coastline in America's hurricane zone....RevKev heads up to his hotel room and goes to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah it doesn't mean shiat...but eventually we'll get ours. Usually it comes in one or two good storms...I don't think we get the nickel and dime events...especially on the coast. Interior sometimes does. Not in the sense that it can physically manifest itself into the pattern, but everything does eventually regress to the mean, so there is some general statistic validity to that theory. I think we all know what people mean by that.....just like we were "due" for a shi**y turn at the start of Feb and boy did that come frutition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah it doesn't mean shiat...but eventually we'll get ours. Usually it comes in one or two good storms...I don't think we get the nickel and dime events...especially on the coast. Interior sometimes does. Scott do you have March snow totals for any of the major New England stations for the past few years? I'd love to know what has gone on relative to average. Like Dave said I'm starting to feel like it doesn't snow in March anymore. In a year like this year when the first snows don't come until late December that means a 10 month wait between accumulating snows - ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't think the pattern looks that horrible going foward... The PNA is rising...the NAO is falling slightly towards nuetral... and there are a few marginal threats in the extended range. Any thoughts from others on this? Yea, it's nearly mid March.....we need some element of luck, regardless of what the pantheon of indexes suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I wonder if the models are underplaying the strength of that high over Maine? Or that there is no blocking and thats whats allowing it to move off to the NE as the low from the midwest appproaches, Its really not in a ideal posistion as it would be better if it was further west over Quebec.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Not in the sense that it can physically manifest itself into the pattern, but everything does eventually regress to the mean, so there is some general statistic validity to that theory. I think we all know what people mean by that.....just like we were "due" for a shi**y turn at the start of Feb and boy did that come frutition. Yeah climo does come around, I mean look how the MA made up the snowfall deficit last year. It's just that when people say things like we are "due" for another hurricane of '38, we aren't necessarily due...but it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Scott do you have March snow totals for any of the major New England stations for the past few years? I'd love to know what has gone on relative to average. Like Dave said I'm starting to feel like it doesn't snow in March anymore. In a year like this year when the first snows don't come until late December that means a 10 month wait between accumulating snows - ouch! You can find them on the BOX climo site(http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box), but March hasn't been all that kind. Sure we got 7-11" on March 2, 2009 and 8-12" on St Patty's Day in 2007, but it's been since 2005 that we had a meaningful March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah climo does come around, I mean look how the MA made up the snowfall deficit last year. It's just that when people say things like we are "due" for another hurricane of '38, we aren't necessarily due...but it will happen again. Well, I'll confess to doing that myself on occasion, but when you really ponder it....do we have a large enough sample size to truly guage the frequency of such an anomalous occurence.....that answer may very well be no.... Buuuuut, we are growing closer by the year, undoubtedly. Same argument is applicable with regard to seasonal analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yea, it's nearly mid March.....we need some element of luck, regardless of what the pantheon of indexes suggest. no doubt....I just don't think the pattern as forecasted by the ensembles and the indices looks all the horrible for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 1048mb high in Quebec on the NAM and looks like we can't do a damn thing with it lol...sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 no doubt....I just don't think the pattern as forecasted by the ensembles and the indices looks all the horrible for snow chances. Yea, I mean you can still glean something from pattern recognition, but it's growing less illuminating by the day...especially in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Well, I'll confess to doing that myself on occasion, but when you really ponder it....do we have a large enough sample size to truly guage the frequency of such an anomalous occurence.....that answer may very well be no.... Buuuuut, we are growing closer by the year, undoubtedly. Things like probability, and terms like once every 100yrs, get people confused I think. For instance some areas had a 100 yr flood in both 2006 and 2007, but they may not see it again for another 200yrs. I think you are right in that sample size plays a role. How do we know this is a 1 in 100yr flood??? Even Ginx can't dig up the Dead Sea Scrolls on the events prior to 1000AD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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