EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Still coming down, but the edge is pushing through, that was a great burst of snow. Whoever is just to the east of me may pick up a quick 1-2". Thanks for the reports for our trip. We got to camp around 4PM...about 6" of new wet snow on top of the crusty old snow. I measured 14" on the ground around our camp...2" layer of ice on the bottom. We had to dig through the 3' snow bank from the snow plow to get off the road. Another 2" fell Saturday evening. Up at Cherry Springs there appeared to be a lot more on the ground at 2400 feet elevation. Lots of snow machines running around. It turned out to be a perfect weekend in God's Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Disco I wrote up. Area Forecast Discussion 6:30 PM 2/27/11 Short Term: Clouds will begin to increase this evening with rain/storms right behind them. There is a chance of some thunderstorms in the south tonight near the MD/PA line, elsewhere expect some rain that could be heavy at times. There maybe some freezing rain over the northeast part of the state but, have opted out of issuing any winter weather products. A break will move in by tomorrow morning into the afternoon before round two arrives. Things then gets very dicey as we head into Monday afternoon through evening. There are three things to be concerned with. #1. Severe weather: Winds will turn to the southwest ahead of the front bringing a surge of moist and warm air northward into the southern half of the state. Highs in the south will be in the lower 70's and upper 40's to lower 50's north. As the day wears on we will acquire some CAPE around 500-1000 J/KG over the southern portions of the region this combined with strong lapse rates and deep-layer winds 70-80KTS at 850MB will make for a day of rain and thunderstorms some which could be severe. For severe info check out the severe outlook. #2. Flooding risk: The atmosphere will become very juicy tomorrow especially over the southern half. This will lead to heavy rainfall enhanced by the thunderstorms that move through. Rainfall over much of the state will be between 1-2". That combined with recent snowmelt and snow cover left in the north will pose a flooding threat. Have a flood watch up for most of the state for this reason. #3. Post Frontal Winds: The lesser of all three threats, though winds after the front passes may be sustained 20-25 MPH with gust to 45 MPH for a few hours. Will have to monitor for any wind advisories needed. A active 24HRS upcoming for sure. For more http://analystwxcast.org/paweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Hmmmm.... Last night's 0Z Nam gives south central pa 2.5" of rain. Then the 06Z run gives 1.75"; Then the 12Z run gives us 1.25"; Then the 18Z gives us 0.50"; Then tonight's 0Z gives us less than 0.50". Sure glad this wasn't going to be snow or there might be some funerals to attend this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Thanks for the reports for our trip. We got to camp around 4PM...about 6" of new wet snow on top of the crusty old snow. I measured 14" on the ground around our camp...2" layer of ice on the bottom. We had to dig through the 3' snow bank from the snow plow to get off the road. Another 2" fell Saturday evening. Up at Cherry Springs there appeared to be a lot more on the ground at 2400 feet elevation. Lots of snow machines running around. It turned out to be a perfect weekend in God's Country. That's a nice park up at Cherry Springs. Glad you had some fresh snow and a prefect weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 O great....NAM puts heaviest rain over the northern tier...hello river flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 O great....NAM puts heaviest rain over the northern tier...hello river flooding 00z NAM shows 1.61" for KBFD. This is going to be a close call for rivers in the area. How much of it actaully gets absorbed into the snowpack vs straight runoff will be the question. If temperatures get above 50°F then I would say temps + moisture will overwhelm the smaller creeks. If temps stay lower than that for much of the duration then I think it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Thanks for the reports for our trip. We got to camp around 4PM...about 6" of new wet snow on top of the crusty old snow. I measured 14" on the ground around our camp...2" layer of ice on the bottom. We had to dig through the 3' snow bank from the snow plow to get off the road. Another 2" fell Saturday evening. Up at Cherry Springs there appeared to be a lot more on the ground at 2400 feet elevation. Lots of snow machines running around. It turned out to be a perfect weekend in God's Country. I'm glad you guys had fun, and I'm glad I could help you guys out on your trip. Cherry Springs is probably the best spot to visit in Potter County in my opinion. They have alot more snow than me due to their greater elevation almost 1000ft more. God's Country is very open arms around these parts, the more the welcome. Hopefully your family will have many more trips to reminisce about, this area does have some tranquil and beautiful characterists left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'm wondering if we can manage to squeeze a t-storm into the northern parts of PA. I know the southern areas of PA have a decent chance at some severe weather with the CAPE values fairly high, and i wonder what the EHI values are projected to be. I hope this thread doesn't dissapear when summer and severe weather events run rampant. I would like to see some good discussions going on in here, I hope summer isn't boring in that regard. Last summer was phenoninal for severe weather for these parts, had quite a few tornado reports near here and damaging winds, no hail though. La Ninas often produce great severe weather events, but with the waters slightly warming up in the Pacific, I wonder if we will see neutral or stay put. Usually a weaking La Nina going into summer spells cooler summers for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Heavy rain in Harrisburg. Maybe that line coming through will kick up a lil thunder edit: ten minutes after this post, the thunder started baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 radar looks sweet right now..dunno about severe but for feb 28 pretty damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 radar looks sweet right now..dunno about severe but for feb 28 pretty damn impressive did you have any thinder yet? We had a couple small rumbles here in Harrisburg. the sky is black like it gets in the summer for big time storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Are we supposed to get storms this afternoon or is this it this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 did you have any thinder yet? We had a couple small rumbles here in Harrisburg. the sky is black like it gets in the summer for big time storms. not yet, nothing has moved in here. looking at the top of the hour though to get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 where's easternuswx? he's about to get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 where's easternuswx? he's about to get raked. yeah, i was wondering where he was. he loves this stuff. except we don't have high winds yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Are we supposed to get storms this afternoon or is this it this morning? i think the chance is very high. Fire Dept scanner just gave an update saying so. High winds with gust up to 50mph check out the pretty colors on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 i think the chance is very high. Fire Dept scanner just gave an update saying so. High winds with gust up to 50mph check out the pretty colors on the radar. Where is the cold front now? Storm will fire along that this afternoon you are say? The radar doesn't look THAT impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Where is the cold front now? Storm will fire along that this afternoon you are say? The radar doesn't look THAT impressive... HRRR says this is pretty much it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Where is the cold front now? Storm will fire along that this afternoon you are say? The radar doesn't look THAT impressive... that's a sick line for feb 28 in south central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 HRRR says this is pretty much it Dang...okay! South Virginia looks to get hit good later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 41.2°F...despite the temps I nearly killed myself about 10 minutes ago on ice near the top of the hill...somehow there is still a solid patch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 An okay storm up here...nothing to impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 where's easternuswx? he's about to get raked. I been issuing products all morning. Wasn't a bad storm. Had gust to 30 MPH and picked up .16" of rain. Had two very close lightning strikes though. Here is where I been. lol http://analystwxcast.org/pawwa.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 massive bust here...radar absolutely died....we'll be lucky to get .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 massive bust here...radar absolutely died....we'll be lucky to get .5" Aint over yet bud. Stuff in KY to get here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 That was a great storm in my book, well at least for northern PA and NW PA. Usually anything over .75" in liquid is a great storm. The rain started slightly after 2AM and then lasted up until 11AM this morning. The heaviest of the precip fell during 3-6AM. From 3-5AM we had a few thunderstorms in the vicinity which is quite unsual around these parts. As soon as the temps warmed up and began to rain, advection fog was a problem for commuters earlier in the morning. Our total was 1.24" for the storm and the majority of it which I was surprised ended up being absorbed into the existing snowpack. We had 12" of snow before the storm and I measured 6" @ 7AM remaining. I will have to measure the snow core sample later in the afternoon to see what is left for liquid equivalence. Temperatures didn't get very warm during the storm which I thought might have had a chance to do, but remained under 45°F for the majority of the storm which prevented any major flooding from occuring. I only saw minor flooding occuring in the roadways and smaller creeks. The major rivers in our area, the Oswayo and Allegheny didn't crest above flood stage, I don't even think they approached action stage. The next system to threaten the general area looks to be another GLC and bringing another round of rain, but this LP looks slightly different in that it looks to be more of a FROPA event with a few inches of snow once the cold front punches through. After this storm advances through, the longer range looks quite interesting. What looks to happen based on the recent 12Z runs on some of the models is a major LP system charging up into MInnesota flooding anyone east of the Mississippi with warm air and spring like conditions with the majority of the precipitatio being focused further to the west this time around. What is interesting about this storm is that it might be the "pattern changer" and cause the pattern to flip into a more favorable pattern for snow. The teleconnections around this time indicate a return to winter weather starting around the March 8-15th time frame. The NAO, AO, and PNA all go neutral. I think its during this time frame we have our best chance at seeing something major occuring before spring arrives. Any thoughts, discuss! After the 16th is up for grabs at this point and is mere speculation, but hopefully we can see some wintery threats before April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 massive bust here...radar absolutely died....we'll be lucky to get .5" How was this a bust? The NAM last night said we weren't getting more than 0.50" and that it would be over with by 1PM this afternoon. Looking at latest radar the steadiest of the rain is now passing east of MDT. All of the heavy stuff to our southwest looks like it will likely just miss us to our south, hitting Maryland and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 WOW WOW...I just looked at the CMC, which I hate doing because I honestly think its horrible, but it shows one massive storm system from the gulf coast, and it looks like it tries to cutoff from the main flow!! The model is printing off 2-4" of QPF and saying 2 feet for western areas of the great lakes. I doubt this is the solution, as the GFS doesn't show this setup at all, what is the Euro showing. I heard the Euro shows alot of QPF for the storm also??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 How was this a bust? The NAM last night said we weren't getting more than 0.50" and that it would be over with by 1PM this afternoon. Looking at latest radar the steadiest of the rain is now passing east of MDT. All of the heavy stuff to our southwest looks like it will likely just miss us to our south, hitting Maryland and Virginia. NAM was all over the place this storm...flood watches were posted and even CTP said 1-2 inches were likely...ended with .34" as of now...this was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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