JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Also, NAM says goodbye to any big snow chances with low tracking right over CPA...looks a lot more believable now. With that track we could get slotted. It's probably too far west right now....the area to watch will be in LA and AR to see if the ridging is enough to push this a little further east in subsequent runs. A changeover to snow is still possible imo. Something else to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It's probably too far west right now....the area to watch will be in LA and AR to see if the ridging is enough to push this a little further east in subsequent runs. A changeover to snow is still possible imo. Something else to watch! It if did shift further east, would Pittsburgh still be able to get in on some good snows or would it move out too quickly and leave us with little QPF? The QPF looks insane, it just looks too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd be cautious with these backend....changeover snows. Very often they don't pan out, and the precip. dries up before the cold air arrives...or cold air gets there slightly before the end. Talked to my aunt today...says Lycoming Ck. is very healthy for this time of the year....hope we don't get those 2+" numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It if did shift further east, would Pittsburgh still be able to get in on some good snows or would it move out too quickly and leave us with little QPF? The QPF looks insane, it just looks too warm. It's going to be a thread-the-needle situation. The low track has to be perfect (probably running from WNC to DCA). I'd be cautious with these backend....changeover snows. Very often they don't pan out, and the precip. dries up before the cold air arrives...or cold air gets there slightly before the end. Talked to my aunt today...says Lycoming Ck. is very healthy for this time of the year....hope we don't get those 2+" numbers. Indeed. It's very hard to get these in our part of the world. It's typically only a thin band if it does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It looks like the 00z GFS took a small step towards the NAM, hummmmm interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS looks like a good amout of rain still....could be a brief changeover to snow across the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM is too far west, GFS coming in line. RGEM blasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It looks like the 00z GFS took a small step towards the NAM, hummmmm interesting Heads up, man. CTP is pretty bullish: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...RAIN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AS WE START THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BEINTO THE NWRN COS BY 12Z SUN. TEMPS THEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAYFOR THE NW. FORECAST DETAILS ARE A BIT BETTER DEFINEDTONIGHT...BUT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER FROM EACH OTHERIN IMPORTANT DETAILS. NAM IS WARMER AND MORE-AMPLIFIED...THE GFSIS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. BUT...INGENERAL...THE CONSENSUS ON QPF AMOUNTS IS TIGHT WHEN LOOKING ATTHE LATEST SREF PLUMES. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER GUID INTIMING...DUE TO THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE DRAWN POLEWARD ANDDECENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AND A SLIGHT TILTING TO THEUPPER TROUGH. THE PIVOT POINT FOR THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NW ANDBEST DYNAMICS PASS RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE 7HFLOW DOES CLOSE OFF...WHILE THE 5H FLOW STAYS OPEN WITH A SHARPSHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 7H LOW PASSES OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAYAFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY UNDERCUTS THE WARMCONVEYOR BELT...THEN THE COLUMN COOLS PRETTY MUCH UNIFORMLY. THISCOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OF SLEET BEFORE THECHANGE TO ALL SNOW. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD PD EVENT...WILL ALLOW FORMORE TIME TO DISCERN THE NECESSITY FOR AN ADVY FOR ANY ZR.HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE CHC OF ZR IN THE GRIDS/ZFP BUT NOTPLACE ANY ACCUMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF IT OCCURRING. THE MORE-CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN TURNS OVER TOSNOW FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.AT THIS POINT...THE SNOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY BUTMORE TIME WILL HELP TO PIN THIS DOWN. WHILE THE TEMPS DO NOT DROPTOO QUICKLY...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH LATE SUN MORNING FORACCUMS TO START IN THE NW. THE ACCUMS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COSWOULD BE 2-3 INCHES BY NIGHTFALL...WITH 3-6 POSSIBLE OVER THENORTH-CENTRAL COS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS COULD CLEAR OUTQUICKLY WITH THE DRY AIR SINKING DOWN AS THE UPPER FEATURES MOVESTO THE NE...BUT WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE NY BORDER AND INTHE LAURELS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND NNW FLOW EXPECTED TO BRINGMOISTURE DOWN FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD CLEAR OUT. IT WILL NOT GETTHAT WINDY POST-FRONT WITH THE LOW NOT DEEPENING BUT A FEW MB ASIT GOES INTO NEW ENGLAND. 06 GFS became more bullish on snow also. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. There is a watch up for the NE tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking like Potter could see 2-5 inch type storm....some of us could see a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Bradford stands a chance at getting some snow....the rest of us have no shot really, but heavy rain is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The heavy rain has been lacking, while areas according to the Radar accumulation out of CTP shows places approaching 1.5" in Forest County. I'm only at .11", well at least I won't have to worry about flooding. This storm has bust potential for the hype it was receiving. If we see 2-4" it will make up for the bad QPF forecast for my area anyways so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The heavy rain has been lacking, while areas according to the Radar accumulation out of CTP shows places approaching 1.5" in Forest County. I'm only at .11", well at least I won't have to worry about flooding. This storm has bust potential for the hype it was receiving. If we see 2-4" it will make up for the bad QPF forecast for my area anyways so far. Not even close to being over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not even close to being over. I know that, but the precip is having a hard time getting this far to the north and east, well the heavier precip that is, I fell bad for places over in forest county they are getting hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Is there anyone near the forest county area that can varify the amounts showing up on the radar? It looks impressive out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I know that, but the precip is having a hard time getting this far to the north and east, well the heavier precip that is, I fell bad for places over in forest county they are getting hammered! Ya it was supposed to be that way. You get it bad later on today into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Ya it was supposed to be that way. You get it bad later on today into tonight. I'll keep you guys updated throughout the storm, its going to be fun none the less, it always is. Especially if we can get some back end snow! A serious question for those that might know, has the NAM always had a wet bias, it seems to always print more QPF than actually falls, or thats the impression I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'll keep you guys updated throughout the storm, its going to be fun none the less, it always is. Especially if we can get some back end snow! A serious question for those that might know, has the NAM always had a wet bias, it seems to always print more QPF than actually falls, or thats the impression I get. Most of the time yes but, not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 If I had to guess most of us will see an inch or two....enough to swell up the smaller streams/creeks. Potter you may see a little snow on the backend...maybe a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Euro gives many of us 1 to 1.5" liquid, with some of that snow in the wrn mtns after 18z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Euro gives many of us 1 to 1.5" liquid, with some of that snow in the wrn mtns after 18z Sunday Hey JSTWX....what exactly does it show for KPIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hey JSTWX....what exactly does it show for KPIT? About 1.4" rain, .1" frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Euro looks about right....an inch of rain.....and some advisory type snows out west...not sure about those winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The WRF is @ 36 hrs Surprises me they are showing this much snow amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The WRF is @ 36 hrs Surprises me they are showing this much snow amount. There will be spots that get a good thumping out of this tomorrow afternoon/night. It's going to be a narrow band, but amounts up to 8" will be possible. My guess right now would be the Johnsonburg-Coudersport-Bradford triangle, with lesser amounts south/southwest and due east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 any thoughts on the flooding JST? Streams are already above normal flow for this time of year in Lycoming county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 any thoughts on the flooding JST? Streams are already above normal flow for this time of year in Lycoming county. Well I can tell you this. There is a lot of rain coming 1.5-2.5" with locally higher amounts. And another storm comes in Friday. Things could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well I can tell you this. There is a lot of rain coming 1.5-2.5" with locally higher amounts. And another storm comes in Friday. Things could get ugly. Thanks dude, I love the site btw. I'm kinda in the dark on this storm...not a lot of talk going on in here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Thanks dude, I love the site btw. I'm kinda in the dark on this storm...not a lot of talk going on in here lol. Your welcome. Ya I am getting some new products out now on the site. Don't worry we will always be updated over there so you'll never be left in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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