JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I could see a stripe of 2-4" between I-99 and Rte 119. If the nam is to be believed, parts of the northern mtns would see warning snow. But I think this is overdone too. Maybe add 10-20% onto the euro qpf. and that seems reasonable at this point. Thanks, Tony. Appreciate it. Walked into class this morning and there is still snowcover in the woods north of campus. A large area that is about 75% covered. Perfectly oriented and shaded slopes still have 4-6" in many places. January 6 - March 4 is a pretty good run. It's funny, there are parts of town like our backyard that is almost free of snow then there are yards with lots of snowcover. Park Forest still have some but hell, they are the snowcover kings and will have it until July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 So it looks like we have two camps... GFS, ECM -- Progressive, gone quickly NAM, CMC -- Slow/stall, training storms Updated Sounds like mets are favoring the GFS and ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 we still have snow / ice at our place. the driveway is really bad at the bottom with ice. first pic is of the ice at the top of our driveway....the 2nd pic is of our yard (old dirty nasty snow) not all of the yard / driveway is covered...around 50% snow/ice & 50% grass/mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Updated Sounds like mets are favoring the GFS and ECM. <div><br></div><div> Euro is much wetter then gfs not sure where you are pulling that GFS and Euro are the same.<div><br></div><div>Euro wide spread 1.5-2" 2-3" in eastern PA. </div> </div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro is much wetter then gfs not sure where you are pulling that GFS and Euro are the same. It seems like the GFS is trending toward the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It seems like the GFS is trending toward the others? Ya the GFS each run has shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL...its rain who cares how much we get...I want as little as possible. Btw... just measured we still have widespread 2 to 5 inches of high water content snow on our side of the mtn.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL...its rain who cares how much we get...I want as little as possible. Btw... just measured we still have widespread 2 to 5 inches of high water content snow on our side of the mtn.! Some people do care. It's much more exciting than sunshine. And the peoples houses that might flood care. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 <div><br></div><div> Euro is much wetter then gfs not sure where you are pulling that GFS and Euro are the same. <div><br></div><div>Euro wide spread 1.5-2" 2-3" in eastern PA. </div> </div> I was reading in terms of track, not QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I was reading in terms of track, not QPF. The track really isn't the same either. Euro has secondary right up the coast line about 50 miles inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 SREFS starting to crank it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I just don't want it because of the flooding stuff....I live very close to the river, and too many times have seen people have to clean and rebuild time and time again. Heavy rain=no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 RSM appears to be skewing the mean lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A lot of them may be catching on to a CPA dryslot though. Several NMM members are picking up on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Too aggressive? Perhaps. But here is something for my neighbors to the southwest across C PA to look at and discuss... Day 2 / 7PM Saturday - 7PM Sunday... Day 3 / 7PM Sunday - 7PM Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Too aggressive? Perhaps. But here is something for my neighbors to the southwest across C PA to look at and discuss... Day 2 / 7PM Saturday - 7PM Sunday... Day 3 / 7PM Sunday - 7PM Monday... would be nice but i dont know???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 HPC maps are interesting. Thanks for posting. It's plausible with the trof going negative when/where it is, with nice comma snow(rain) moving through PA into WNY. Dynamic cooling, a cold high and strengthening coastal all point to this type of scenario. However, a later trof tilt and there will be no appreciable snow. Only 1 to 2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 a more detailed look at 4" probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 8" probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm LMAO at the CMC and NAM for the amount of snow they give central and northern pa . While the GFS doesn't even show an inch, who will win nobody knows . We are going to have to worry about the flooding first. I took 4 different snow core samples, two at my house and 2 on the local ridge tops around 2200ft. I had between 1.3-1.6" at my house and then an astounding 3.5-4.0" on the ridge tops in the wooded areas! The potential for 1-2" of rain plus that runoff from the snowpack is going to reek havoc on the waterways in central and northern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Pretty significant differences between the Euro and Ukie, for how close we are to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm LMAO at the CMC and NAM for the amount of snow they give central and northern pa . While the GFS doesn't even show an inch, who will win nobody knows . We are going to have to worry about the flooding first. I took 4 different snow core samples, two at my house and 2 on the local ridge tops around 2200ft. I had between 1.3-1.6" at my house and then an astounding 3.5-4.0" on the ridge tops in the wooded areas! The potential for 1-2" of rain plus that runoff from the snowpack is going to reek havoc on the waterways in central and northern pa. Wow, that's an impressive amount of water sitting around. Also, the runoff is going to smell bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow, that's an impressive amount of water sitting around. Also, the runoff is going to smell bad? Lmao you know what I meant haha. Yes, I thought it was impressive also, the higher elevation snowpack around me hasn't melted much throughout these past rain events. I measured 15" in some areas on the ridge tops in the wooded areas and I only have 6" in my back yard! The elevation difference isn't that much at 650ft, but it's a good 3-4°F difference though, which is enough to keep 2x as much snowpack around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Bradford may get some snow....other than that I would say it's highly improbable for areas south and east. This rainstorm could be bad though...not liking the looks of 2 or 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Southern energy is faster on the run of the nam through 24, compared to 36 on the 12z. May go negative a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nam seems to be coming in line (speed wise) with the Euro and GFS, but is waaaay west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Also more realistic with the rain in PA as well..... but poor Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Good deal...NAM cuts back on the precip in PA...we don't need that much rain...I'm rooting for a west trend from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Also, NAM says goodbye to any big snow chances with low tracking right over CPA...looks a lot more believable now. With that track we could get slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Took IPT from 3.35 at 18z to 1.9 at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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