snywx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We should all still be in the same damn forum anyway. One of the reasons why I haven't posted as much recently... Its unfortunate for us up here as well.. We in Orange county are in Uptons CWA yet have a distinct difference in winter weather from NYC/LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 but its been modeled to lose its strength around the GL. thats not a suprise. and frankly, i dont see this "drying up quickly" ether. My link i dont believe low strength has anything to do with precip in this situation. The precip in Michigan is going to slide over. As indicated with the links i had posted. Nothing is going to fizzle out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nothing in my neck of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nothing in my neck of the woods yet. It's not supposed to start here until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i dont believe low strength has anything to do with precip in this situation. The precip in Michigan is going to slide over. As indicated with the links i had posted. Nothing is going to fizzle out. i agree. not sure what JGNYK is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 39.F - dewpoint 8.F / humidity 28 %...... virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 32.5 F, Rel. Humidity = 30%. Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 dont even know why im posting gfs right now but im wired, im up...and the nam sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i agree. not sure what JGNYK is talking about. you guys obviously have no idea how to forecast weather.. i have no idea what your are talking about.. areas to our west recieved 8-16" of snow and areas to our immediate west are under winter storm warnings for up to 10" of snow.. in our cwa the farthest west locations will receive much more QPF compared to areas just to the east... now does that sound like an intensifying precip shield or one that is fizzling out due to confluence??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you guys obviously have no idea how to forecast weather.. i have no idea what your are talking about.. areas to our west recieved 8-16" of snow and areas to our immediate west are under winter storm warnings for up to 10" of snow.. in our cwa the farthest west locations will receive much more QPF compared to areas just to the east... now does that sound like an intensifying precip shield or one that is fizzling out due to confluence??? Exactly, the QPF is supposed to decrease west to east as the storm gets sheared out. I'm not sure why people are so optimistic. This was a 5" storm at absolute best, 2-3 is more likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you guys obviously have no idea how to forecast weather.. i have no idea what your are talking about.. areas to our west recieved 8-16" of snow and areas to our immediate west are under winter storm warnings for up to 10" of snow.. in our cwa the farthest west locations will receive much more QPF compared to areas just to the east... now does that sound like an intensifying precip shield or one that is fizzling out due to confluence??? yes I and most of us know this. no right minded person here thought the big precip would make it here. its been a .25-.5 qpf event for a while now. so what are you doing, just stating the obvious? you make it sound like its fizzling and drying out to the point that we will only get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you guys obviously have no idea how to forecast weather.. i have no idea what your are talking about.. areas to our west recieved 8-16" of snow and areas to our immediate west are under winter storm warnings for up to 10" of snow.. in our cwa the farthest west locations will receive much more QPF compared to areas just to the east... now does that sound like an intensifying precip shield or one that is fizzling out due to confluence??? ouch, its good we are not mets then. http://radar.weather...tlakes_loop.php if this is weakening and drying up quickly then we dont know how to read radar either. all i was saying is the PA precip is not the storm, no the NWS did not forecast 3-6" off that. I was Pointing out the stream of precip near the lakes was our main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 but its been modeled to lose its strength around the GL. thats not a suprise. and frankly, i dont see this "drying up quickly" ether. My link who said it was a surprise.. im just telling you what's happening.. everyone was excited 2 or 3 hours ago saying radar looks great.. i said its fizzling out, the radar is indeed fizzling out just like modeled no surprises im just stating the facts and trying to stop all of this excitement about an over acheiver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you guys obviously have no idea how to forecast weather.. i have no idea what your are talking about.. areas to our west recieved 8-16" of snow and areas to our immediate west are under winter storm warnings for up to 10" of snow.. in our cwa the farthest west locations will receive much more QPF compared to areas just to the east... now does that sound like an intensifying precip shield or one that is fizzling out due to confluence??? Yeeeah, but I'll take your opinion over some uneducated weenies'. As much as I want to see the kind of heavy snow they're seeing over WI/MN/MI, the confluence over us is stronger, and the associated dry air will eat a lot of the snow/precip up. Doesn't mean we mostly don't see a heavy/mod period of snow later, but the megabands over the Midwest will dry and break up as they approach us. I think it could still overperform in spots, but I don't think any of us should expect over 6". People who get lucky and under a band could see a nice little event but it could be "patchy" over us due to the dry air and confluence, and that's what keeps it from being the kind of event here it is over there. The entire reason why this is snow for most of is is confluence and the PV. If those weren't present we'd be staring down a cutter and driving rain, so thank it for what we'll get at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ouch, its good we are not mets then. http://radar.weather...tlakes_loop.php if this is weakening and drying up quickly then we dont know how to read radar either. ever heard of virga.. also 90% of that is headed south of nyc... i dont like this nw to se orientation of the precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 who said it was a surprise.. im just telling you what's happening.. everyone was excited 2 or 3 hours ago saying radar looks great.. i said its fizzling out, the radar is indeed fizzling out just like modeled no surprises im just stating the facts and trying to stop all of this excitement about an over acheiver yea, exactly...its going as planned. not sure where you and I got mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yes I and most of us know this. no right minded person here thought the big precip would make it here. its been a .25-.5 qpf event for a while now. so what are you doing, just stating the obvious? you make it sound like its fizzling and drying out to the point that we will only get flurries. i believe i just said 2-4" last page... you made that assumption.. i simply its not going to be an over achiever and i like the lower range of my forecasts.. what do you think we'll get?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anyone who thought there was a CHANCE at the heavy snows is out of their mind. confluence was progged to shear the heaviest stuff from us for days now. not sure why we have to beat a dead horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i believe i just said 2-4" last page... you made that assumption.. i simply its not going to be an over achiever and i like the lower range of my forecasts.. what do you think we'll get?? 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i believe i just said 2-4" last page... you made that assumption.. i simply its not going to be an over achiever and i like the lower range of my forecasts.. what do you think we'll get?? Question: The latest GFS shows part II as a pretty ramped up system hitting central Maryland and south central PA. Between two frames, it just completely dies out. Is that due to the confluence as well? I thought it was lifting out faster than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yea, exactly...its going as planned. not sure where you and I got mixed up. i don't know either I was just referring to anyone predicting more than the general consensus of 2-5".. just got a little mad when i saw some posts mocking my statements earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 With regards to the second wave, the 00z GFS shifted northward about 30 miles. Has the northern fringe of light snows reaching about TTN-BLM, and 3"+ for the PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anyone who thought there was a CHANCE at the heavy snows is out of their mind. confluence was progged to shear the heaviest stuff from us for days now. not sure why we have to beat a dead horse. being that i said 2-4" on my facebook page forecast i dont know what the disagreement was. All i pointed out is the GL precip will get here, but will weaken as its doing so. But still giving us a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i believe i just said 2-4" last page... you made that assumption.. i simply its not going to be an over achiever and i like the lower range of my forecasts.. what do you think we'll get?? im thinking 2-4, 3-5 in some spots. i mean its not rocket science, i can somewhat read maps and listen to you guys. and by no means i was forecasting at any point. i never forecast cuz i leave that up to you pros. i just look at maps and radars, and try to learn in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Question: The latest GFS shows part II as a pretty ramped up system hitting central Maryland and south central PA. Between two frames, it just completely dies out. Is that due to the confluence as well? I thought it was lifting out faster than that. yes... worse case ever for me was last year when long island south got crushed and band after band came up to the ct coast and fizzled out in the february storm.. i think southern ct got a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i don't know either I was just referring to anyone predicting more than the general consensus of 2-5".. just got a little mad when i saw some posts mocking my statements earlier ok i wasnt mocking though. sorry, not like i can deliver my emotions on here. but when you said its dying out and fizzling i thought you were saying its doing something other than what it was progged to do. thats all. my apologies if i came across like an a$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ever heard of virga.. also 90% of that is headed south of nyc... i dont like this nw to se orientation of the precip.. Ya, I haven't been all that enthused over this puppy. And lookie here, the GFS just cut precip as well ... look for NWS to do the same pretty soon. The confluence keeps us cold but it also deflects the WAA slug somewhat. 2-3" NYC metro... less out your way, more to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Question: The latest GFS shows part II as a pretty ramped up system hitting central Maryland and south central PA. Between two frames, it just completely dies out. Is that due to the confluence as well? I thought it was lifting out faster than that. Take a look at the 00z GFS H5 and H7 panels; you'll see more clearly. As the wave propagates eastward, it runs into strong NWLY flow aloft on the southwestern fringe of the vortex situated over SE Canada. Essentially thi NW flow shears the system to shreds by the time it reaches the east coast. We'll probably see 6" amounts from wave 2 about 100 miles west of Philly, then closer to 3" in Philly itself, before amounts dwindle to an inch or so on the SE NJ shore. Will the depiction be correct? If the PV placement is a bit different/further NE, maybe we'll be able to muster heavier precip before it weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't see any problems getting 2-5 right now...the forecasts in some of the northern reaches of the area and NE PA for more than that could be in trouble but considering what could have become of this system 2-5 inches is probably pretty good...we're also dealing with more difficulties again since alot of the short term models indicate redevelopment of a precip shield late tonight, so once again we're trying to monitor trends to see what ultimately happens...there have not been alot of easy events this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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