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Feb. 19th-21st Winter Storm Part 3

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Central/Western States

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

For the chicago area, you actually have ENE off the lake at this time.. This should turn more east but the cold wind off the lake often hangs up the WF around the area...This usually occurs during the spring though

so a heavy precip event is possible...

and it will be a battle for precip type too..

was talking to Caplan about this earlier, both were wondering if we stay with frozen precip longer than some think. would much rather have a big sleet even then ice.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

MSP on the euro 0.93

SUN 00Z 20-FEB  -4.7    -1.2    1027      68      75    0.00 	557 	536    
SUN 06Z 20-FEB  -4.9    -1.3    1024      59      56    0.00 	556 	537    
SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -3.7    -3.4    1019      72      53    0.00 	554 	539    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB  -2.7    -5.6    1014      77      87    0.11 	550 	539    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -2.6    -8.3    1009      77      99    0.24 	545 	538    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -5.2   -10.9    1010      80      95    0.24 	538 	530    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -7.2   -12.5    1012      79      90    0.15 	535 	526    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -7.0   -13.4    1015      72      91    0.08 	533 	522    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -7.4   -14.2    1018      79      89    0.10 	535 	521    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB -12.7   -14.6    1022      86      70    0.01 	540 	524

Yeah that is a little more like it. I was going to say .5-.75 would have taken a miracle to be that dry.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

will for sure be setting my alarm for 4am or so to see where the band is at...not missing this baby

It's interesting how the band of heavy rains/embedded thunder that passes through here will go on to potentially dump heavy snows on you guys in Chicagoland. Hopefully you guys get in on some heavy snowfall before the WAA wins out.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Really? Looks like on SV they are in the .5-.75 range. Odd, my maps always seem to low though.

Anyone care to post FLD and MKE by any chance?

FLD

SUN 00Z 20-FEB  -4.7    -2.3    1030      68      67    0.00     557     534    
SUN 06Z 20-FEB  -5.9    -1.0    1028      81      58    0.00     558     536    
SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -3.8    -0.1    1022      84      84    0.00     556     538    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB   0.3    -3.1    1016      79     100    0.11     554     541    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -2.8    -6.5    1012      91      97    0.44     551     542    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -3.4    -6.9    1010      88      99    0.29     547     539    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -4.8    -7.7    1011      83      51    0.10     541     532    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -5.1    -8.7    1014      72      56    0.02     540     529    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -5.1   -11.2    1015      72      87    0.02     538     527    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB  -6.4   -12.5    1019      77      98    0.04     538     523    
TUE 12Z 22-FEB -10.0   -10.6    1023      84      89    0.02     542     524    

MKE

SUN 00Z 20-FEB  -5.0    -1.7    1031      77      52    0.00     559     535    
SUN 06Z 20-FEB  -4.3    -0.2    1028      84      50    0.00     559     538    
SUN 12Z 20-FEB  -2.1     0.7    1022      83      63    0.00     558     541    
SUN 18Z 20-FEB   0.0    -1.0    1015      93      98    0.19     556     544    
MON 00Z 21-FEB  -0.5    -4.5    1010      94     100    0.31     553     545    
MON 06Z 21-FEB  -1.9    -3.4    1008      90      98    0.42     550     543    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -3.4    -4.2    1010      83      24    0.08     544     536    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -3.7    -6.2    1012      77      47    0.02     541     532    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -4.7    -7.0    1014      80      77    0.05     539     529    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB  -6.1   -10.6    1018      82      85    0.10     538     524    
TUE 12Z 22-FEB  -7.1   -10.8    1022      80      93    0.08     542     524    
TUE 18Z 22-FEB  -3.7    -9.4    1026      65      89    0.00     546     527

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

about 12 years ago(?) in April parts of Northern IL got a surprise foot of snow overnight in a set up similar to this..Peoria was right on the cut off with close to a foot northern part to less then 2 inches south side

convective cooling offset any WAA just north of the warmfront in that case

snow and mix precip now being reported over SE IA

DVN has fallen to 32 with the dewpoint still 25

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

We're at 30 right now as the heavy bands of WAA wing precip approach. Definitely gonna get a period of glazing here at onset. We'll be too warm aloft to see sleet or snow, but a brief glazing is in the cards. If we wouldn't have melted off our 18"+ snowpack this could have been a devastating ice storm for this area.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

about 12 years ago(?) in April parts of Northern IL got a surprise foot of snow overnight in a set up similar to this..Peoria was right on the cut off with close to a foot northern part to less then 2 inches south side

convective cooling offset any WAA just north of the warmfront in that case

snow and mix precip now being reported over SE IA

DVN has fallen to 32 with the dewpoint still 25

try and figure out the date lol

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

ORD: rain

RA to FZRA to SN.

SUN 18Z 20-FEB   1.4     2.4    1014      91      67    0.22     559     548    
MON 00Z 21-FEB   1.3     3.5    1007      96      99    0.26     556     551    
MON 06Z 21-FEB   0.0     4.6    1004      95      83    0.40     552     549    
MON 12Z 21-FEB  -1.5     1.8    1007      90      43    0.10     547     541    
MON 18Z 21-FEB  -1.5     0.1    1009      83      76    0.01     544     537    
TUE 00Z 22-FEB  -1.9    -3.3    1011      86      57    0.06     541     532    
TUE 06Z 22-FEB  -3.4    -9.0    1016      86      71    0.07     539     527    
TUE 12Z 22-FEB  -5.7   -10.2    1021      84      68    0.03     543     527    
TUE 18Z 22-FEB  -2.9    -8.8    1025      65      73    0.01     548     529

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

just issued

a solid write up

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1125 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NEB/SRN SD EWD TO SWRN MN/EXTREME NWRN

IA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 200525Z - 201030Z

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NORTH

CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL SD BETWEEN 06-09Z...AND THEN EWD INTO SWRN

MN AND FAR NWRN IA MAINLY AFTER 09Z. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL

SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES 0.15 INCH PER 3

HOUR SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING

FROM LOGAN COUNTY NEB TO TURNER COUNTY SD AND THEN EWD INTO FAR NWRN

IA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SWRN MN. MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA

EXTENDING 60-80 MILES NORTH OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONSIST OF

PREDOMINANTLY SLEET FROM THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST

12Z. HEAVY SLEET RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TSTMS

THAT DEVELOP.

SURFACE THETA/THETAE ANALYSES INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING

EWD FROM SERN WY INTO CENTRAL NEB...THEN NEWD TO SWRN/SRN MN AND FAR

NWRN/NRN IA. MODELS MAINTAIN THIS BOUNDARY POSITION THROUGH

12Z...WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE

FREEZING LINE. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE SRN EXTENT OF

THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PERSISTENT/

EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHTNING ACROSS ERN CO AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER ERN CO INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB ARE LIKELY

INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADING NEWD TONIGHT

PER A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS MOISTENING IS

UNDERWAY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ATTENDANT TO INCREASING WAA

REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SRN-CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ AND WITHIN

EXIT REGION OF STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS.

PRECIPITATION RATES...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT AT THE ONSET ACROSS

SWRN/CENTRAL NEB...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY

SUNDAY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE

DISCUSSION AREA PER AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION OF MASS FIELDS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE EXPECTED FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR

SUGGEST A 3-4 DEGREE MAXIMUM INCREASE ABOVE 0 C IN THE 850-700 MB

LAYER THROUGH 12Z. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT

FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FARTHER

N...VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SLEET. BY 12Z...AN

INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM WNW-ESE ACROSS

WRN-CENTRAL NEB AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.

THIS TREND MAY SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO SNOW ACROSS

CENTRAL SD.

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet between noon and 5pm, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet after 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind between 8 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible

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