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March


DaculaWeather

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another good rain event is on the horizon, the only difference is how much and that depends on which model has the right idea with the phasing or partial phasing. The Euro has lost the big cutoff, which I'm not suprised, but the GGEM andGFS are a more progressive blend, with a bigger deal shown on the GGEM. This looks like a slow moving full latitude trough with the possibility of temp. cutting off near the Apps or MidAtlantic, but on all models this looks like a big rain event from the Tenn. Valley northward and eastward, possibly flooding in some areas west of the Apps especially, and then possibly cold enough to allow some snow under the cold core if it cuts off and has enough moisture underneath. That would be possible in Tn, Ky, Oh, western VA /NC mtns at this point but doesn't look like much right now.

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KATL 12Z Tue Goofy update: now the coldest 850 is within 10 days (hour 228) at +1 C. Last 12 Goofies' coldest 850 at KATL:

+1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3

18z Goofy is warmest of last 13 with coldest at KATL of a very mild +6 at 850!

Last 13 Goofies coldest KATL at 850:

+6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3

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I know! I'm surprised I didn't see any of the fun weather across the peninsula! Having lived in Columbus, GA for 4 months now... I have seen snow (seen before in PA), sleet (saw for the first time that I can remember), freezing rain (same as sleet), and severe thunderstorms (mainly wind events)... and I was at work yesterday from 4am to 9PM and had to be back at 4am this morning... Gotta love TV!

Well, the best is yet to come! August will give you temps and sun, like St. Pete beach at 2, but without the sea breeze, and with 150% humidity, lol. Hope we can get you some hail before then. T

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18z Goofy is warmest of last 13 with coldest at KATL of a very mild +6 at 850!

Last 13 Goofies coldest KATL at 850:

+6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3

0z Wed Goofy got a good bit colder and is at -3C at 850 for KATL's coldest and implies a freeze threat for 3/11-13. Sorry to the folks that don't want another freeze, which I assume isn't too high a number. Hopefully, this messenger will live another day. Last 14 Goofies: -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Night.

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0z Wed Goofy got a good bit colder and is at -3C at 850 for KATL's coldest and implies a freeze threat for 3/11-13. Sorry to the folks that don't want another freeze, which I assume isn't too high a number. Hopefully, this messenger will live another day. Last 14 Goofies: -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Night.

Coldest 6z Wed Goofy at Atl: warmed back to +1, which is no surprise.

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Low of 27 this morning.

Low of 29.5 this morning, with frost on the truck and a glaze over the birdbath. The big rain event is still on track this weekend for the Southeast. Some areas are progged to receive 2" to 3" of rain, a 2 day event, just what we need. After this, a closed high in Northwest Canada should help steer another storm relatively far south in about a week, to tap the Gulf once again for another decent rain event, and after that goes by we turn colder with a widespread freeze. Great pattern...seems "normal".

post-38-0-05386000-1299072570.gif

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Coldest 6z Wed Goofy at Atl: warmed back to +1, which is no surprise.

Coldest 12z Wed Goofy 850 at Atl: remained at +1C. This suggests that KATL has a decent shot at avoiding more than a light freeze in mid March.

Last 16 Goofies' coldest 850: +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 16: -2..so trend has been warmer.

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DT spring forecast FWIW:

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/spring11/springseverewx11.htm

Summary:

• ANOTHER TOUGH SPRING…

• Any “summer” forecasts issued in March/ early April LIKELY to be wrong

• LA NINA is weakening BUT CURRENT data keeps 'WEAK” La Nina into Past June into Summer

• Lower Plains & Deep South DROUGHT WILL GET WORSE

• Best areas will be ECB / TN VALLEY

• If the LA NINA holds on into JULY then DROUGHT could expand into WCB and Lower ECB

• Very active SEVERE WX season... Below Normal activities over Gulf coast states after MAY 1

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The ECMWF has finally come around to the GFS ..we've seen this many times this Fall and Winter in the day 7 range. Still , a big/Decent rain event for us, just not a closed low like the ECMWF had for a few runs. The heaviest totals on most of the models are aimed at the southern Apps, generally around northern GA, western Carolinas..but almost all the Southeast north of Fl. will have a good rain event with some decent duration starting Saturday and not ending until late Sunday. It looks like the flow is going to bring troughs in from the Pacific every 5 to 6 days, so beyond this one, maybe 2 more are on the way that we can see, unless the Southeast ridge buckles enough to shunt it northwest of us. We'll take all we can get, while we can.

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Why is it that it's always the deep south that seems to get the worst of droughts ? I never hear about the Northeast or Great Lakes having a severe drought.

Good question, and theres a lot of factors. Drought is relative to each location, but generally the entire eastern third of the country is pretty wet thanks to the geography and locations of moisture sources (gulf and atlantic). The reason the Northeast hasn't been hit too hard is there would have to be a general long term ridge in the Midatlantic or East Coast such that it prevents the Northeast from rains (or snow) and thats hard to do on a long term basis , esp. since -NAO forces systems south. Over the last few years there's been plenty of storms to focus on that region , but there's a few stretches where VA and DC for example were in drought. But inevitably it turns wetter there. The Southeast droughts are products of 1) above normal heights and 2) westerly flow east of the Apps, which instigates drought specificially in the Carolinas/srn VA. If you look at height fields , they have been above normal for the most part in the last decade, and the other notable droughts such as 88, 86, etc. That high height field shuts off thunderstorms with a cap in the atmosphere, esp from May til August, just when evaporation rates are the highest...but even in Winters, for many years there have been a lack of Gulf systems and still residual southeast ridging even in the colder months. However during the Nino episodes, every 3 to 5 years, theres above normal to normal rains in the Southeast. Seems like more often than not though, (and considering Nino ehanced rains are only for late Autumn/Winter months) we're below in the rains, barring tropical storms, which can be localized and regionally placed. The new Summer flow has been northwest or west, as opposed to Southerly flow, which has been more traditional for the whole Southeast going back as far as the records show (over 100 years). So it boils down to placement of ridges and above normal height fields (ridges in Apps or ohio Valley or anywhere in Tenn Valley to Southeast are bad news) , and since the flow in general is downslope in the Carolinas, further drying (and dramatically drying in the immediate Apps lee) . We keep repeating the perfect scenario it seems like of all these above factors (Ohio/TN Valley/App closed highs, nw flow/Bermuda ridge) to either keep a drought area going, or if not in one, its usually not far away. We've had some good breaks the last couple of years in certain spots..namely GA., and occasionally eastern NC) but for the western Piedmont/Upstate SC, we can't shake it for long enough...only during a Nino episode. And it doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO state in Spring and Summer, generally dryness has ruled lately in the SE, but a few spots have actually lucked up with low level convergence in June/July for above avg. rains even with extreme drought just a few adjacent counties away. Look at NE GA compared to GSP CLT and CAE regions just the last few years as a good example. Hope this helps, theres a lot more to it and theres always exceptions to the rule, with microclimate stuff going on , and some very strange oddities that show up.

30 year average surface flow in Summer (some component of Gulf inflow)

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post-38-0-64748500-1299101841.gif

post-38-0-08341500-1299101920.gif

post-38-0-76372300-1299101983.png

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Why is it that it's always the deep south that seems to get the worst of droughts ? I never hear about the Northeast or Great Lakes having a severe drought.

They tend to get more spring and summer frontal passages the farther north you go. Here in the south we can go well over a month(even two) with out a front. **But they (northern zones) can have very long term, less intense, droughts. It seems a few years back I read about the great lakes water levels dropping.

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They tend to get more spring and summer frontal passages the farther north you go. Here in the south we can go well over a month(even two) with out a front. **But they (northern zones) can have very long term, less intense, droughts. It seems a few years back I read about the great lakes water levels dropping.

the western Lakes around Mn/Wis. have had some serious droughts recently. And Florida as well with an absence of trop. systems and that corresponds to the Southeast ridges or interior closed highs.

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I think us around asheville will also see some snow sunday night, all of wnc mtns.

Finally opened the parkway today! Looking forward to the possibility of high elevation snow late Sunday night. Wonder if the pkwy will stay open for this event or if they will get wise and close it off for us snow chasers.

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Coldest 12z Wed Goofy 850 at Atl: remained at +1C. This suggests that KATL has a decent shot at avoiding more than a light freeze in mid March.

Last 16 Goofies' coldest 850: +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 16: -2..so trend has been warmer.

The 18Z Goofy is the 3rd in a row at +1 for KATL's coldest. Last 17 Goofies' KATL coldest at 850:

+1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 17: -1..so trend has been warmer.

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The 18Z Goofy is the 3rd in a row at +1 for KATL's coldest. Last 17 Goofies' KATL coldest at 850:

+1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 17: -1..so trend has been warmer.

Wow, winter says psyche, I'm back on the 0Z Thu Goofy! It has KATL's coldest 850 down at -6C, 7C colder than the prior three runs, the coldest of the last eight runs, and fourth coldest of the last 18. This suggests a couple of pretty solid freezes possible 3/11-12 fwiw.

Last 18 goofies' KATL coldest at KATL:-6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 18: -1.

I'm looking for a warmer run at 6Z. Look at the other three cold runs. The subsequent runs warmed 14C, 12C, and 10C, respectively, or 12C on average. I'm wild guessing that the 6Z will be 8C warmer than the 0Z Thu run or +2C. Let's see what happens for the fun of it.

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Does anyone remember the snowstorm that hit NC on this date in 1980 ? I believe the NC coast got close to 30 inches of snow.

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?event_id=97&location_county=&StartYear=1980&page=1&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=1980&EndMonth=04&EndDay=3&Submit=Submit

This the storm? I wasn't alive yet, but it looks like it was fun.

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Wow, winter says psyche, I'm back on the 0Z Thu Goofy! It has KATL's coldest 850 down at -6C, 7C colder than the prior three runs, the coldest of the last eight runs, and fourth coldest of the last 18. This suggests a couple of pretty solid freezes possible 3/11-12 fwiw.

Last 18 goofies' KATL coldest at KATL:-6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 18: -1.

I'm looking for a warmer run at 6Z. Look at the other three cold runs. The subsequent runs warmed 14C, 12C, and 10C, respectively, or 12C on average. I'm wild guessing that the 6Z will be 8C warmer than the 0Z Thu run or +2C. Let's see what happens for the fun of it.

The 6Z Thu Goofy's coldest KATL 850 ended up being 9C warmer than the 0Z at +3C, which is tied for 2nd warmest of the last 19. The 0Z had been fourth coldest. So, this Goofy goofy pattern is somewhat predictable. The 6Z suggests that KATL might be able to get past period this without any freeze.

Last 19 Goofies' KATL coldest at KATL: +3, -6, +1, +1, +1, -3, +6, +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. AVG of the 19: -1.

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