Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 BWI? BWI .12 of qpf at 850 of 5 .40 of qpf with 850 at -2 .21 of qpf with 850 at -9 this is the EURO snowiest run yet for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 BWI .12 of qpf at 850 of 5 .40 of qpf with 850 at -2 .21 of qpf with 850 at -9 this is the EURO snowiest run yet for our area Damn...I'll take it, let's lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Damn...I'll take it, let's lock it in! A lil cooler first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EURO shows .15 of rain and .56 as snow for both Dulles and Leesburg. DCA gets .56 of snow qpf but .36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2. Can't complain I guess at 0.56" QPF that's apparently all snow, on the Euro...even with the "but 0.36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2". Would imply, taken literally, increasing ratios I guess. By the way, do you really mean the 850 at -0.2, and not -2? You mentioned BWI has a similar amount that falls with 850s at -2 so that's why I'm asking. Then again, the gradient will probably be quite sharp, so -0.2 to -2.0 from DCA to BWI might not be off. Then again, this is just going over minute details for something that's still 3 days away, so it might not really matter that much at this point. I'd take 0.56" QPF that's all snow right now and worry about the fine details later, I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We spent countless hours this season tracking whiffs and now we have what looks to be our 2nd best storm of the season sneak right up on us. Models are all starting to converge on a good solution and the setup isn't overly complicated either. Not saying it's a lock by any stretch but I really like where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Can't complain I guess at 0.56" QPF that's apparently all snow, on the Euro...even with the "but 0.36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2". Would imply, taken literally, increasing ratios I guess. By the way, do you really mean the 850 at -0.2, and not -2? You mentioned BWI has a similar amount that falls with 850s at -2 so that's why I'm asking. Then again, the gradient will probably be quite sharp, so -0.2 to -2.0 from DCA to BWI might not be off. Then again, this is just going over minute details for something that's still 3 days away, so it might not really matter that much at this point. I'd take 0.56" QPF that's all snow right now and worry about the fine details later, I think! BWI is -2.0.(safe)- DCA is -0.2(barley close enough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We spent countless hours this season tracking whiffs and now we have what looks to be our 2nd best storm of the season sneak right up on us. Models are all starting to converge on a good solution and the setup isn't overly complicated either. Not saying it's a lock by any stretch but I really like where we sit right now. True, that! Of course, the same kind of thing happened for the Jan. 26 steroid-induced-Barry-Bonds upper level low system that dumped a quick 8" of snow. That, I seem to recall, also snuck up on us kind of suddenly a couple of days before it happened. That kind of year, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 BWI is -2.0.(safe)- DCA is -0.2(barley close enough) OK, then the idea of a very sharp gradient as the cold air moves in, is probably what's going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 also.. during the warm part of the SNOW part IAD is at -1.4. BWI is at -2.0. DCA is at -0.2 the surface temp for DCA while 850 is -0.2 is -1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i demand t-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 also.. during the warm part of the SNOW part IAD is at -1.4. BWI is at -2.0. DCA is at -0.2 I am guessing during the "end" portion of the snow... 850s are crashing hard a la the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 when it warms up and melts really fast after how long will it take for mitchnick to remind us how much this winter sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 this is a very MD/DC/Balt Event per the EURO right now You got to PHL and the qpf is much lighter at only .39 total qpf but much colder. Its very touchy...we could get screwed eitherr way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am guessing during the "end" portion of the snow... 850s are crashing hard a la the GFS? the cold part of the snow event where DC gets .20, the 850 temps are at -8...maybe 3 inches from .20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 True, that! Of course, the same kind of thing happened for the Jan. 26 steroid-induced-Barry-Bonds upper level low system that dumped a quick 8" of snow. That, I seem to recall, also snuck up on us kind of suddenly a couple of days before it happened. That kind of year, I suppose. Actually, I think psuhoffman nailed that like 26 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i think a good forecast now if you had to make one is 3-6 inches with higher amounts N and W of DC. Maybe 4-8 for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the cold part of the snow event where DC gets .20, the 850 temps are at -8...maybe 3 inches from .20? you've been hanging out in the philly forum too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is no one considering this a real threat? I took it as a real threat after the 18z GFS yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 you've been hanging out in the philly forum too much fayetsville Arkansas got 25 inches from like .60 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 fayetsville Arkansas got 25 inches from like .60 qpf Is that from a human measurement or automatic? Was it QC'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is that from a human measurement or automatic? Was it QC'd? it was from JB's blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 when it warms up and melts really fast after how long will it take for mitchnick to remind us how much this winter sucks? 3.6" of snow and I get to 20" IMBY. With below normal temps in Dec and Jan (Feb too?) and 20" of snow, I call that a solid B/B+ winter. Speaking of Feb...what's the status of our monthly temps relative to normal to date? Did this week get rid of all the below normal anomaly from the first 2 weeks? If the forecast for next week pans out, I'd wager we end up fairly close to average on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 it was from JB's blog Then he's even more loony than I thought! He actually believed 40:1 ratios in ARKANSAS for an entire storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 74/50 spring conditions here in Dale City, daffodils are coming up big time. I can see fresh green grass coming up all over my yard. The last of the snow piles are being burned away. Spring is consolidating its gains - NOT wasting any time. Couple chilly days coming up, some wind, then back to the early spring weather. Time to get the air conditioning checked. Tomorrow's wind gusts may be interesting - but chances are, we'll probably have modest winds ~ 35-45 mph tops. We usually don't get the wind maxes, Maryland does. We're used to it - Northern Virginia has some of the mildest, non-severe weather in the entire world. I need to move to Kansas for true severe wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 it was from JB's blog I'm sorry, but there's just no way that measurement's right. He probably just read it straight off of a METAR report (which is an automatic measurement that will underestimate big snowfall water equivalents 99.99% of the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 3.6" of snow and I get to 20" IMBY. With below normal temps in Dec and Jan (Feb too?) and 20" of snow, I call that a solid B/B+ winter. Speaking of Feb...what's the status of our monthly temps relative to normal to date? Did this week get rid of all the below normal anomaly from the first 2 weeks? If the forecast for next week pans out, I'd wager we end up fairly close to average on the month. DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now. Thanks...figured we were closer to average than that. Perhaps BWI is a bit lower. I agree that where we are now is probably a good guess for the final departure for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now. Agreed. Nothing indicating an extended stretch of cold through the end of the month. Shots of at or below normal in the longer range but plenty of above mixed in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now. and monday is also going to be well above normal which makes me think we'll be very hard pressed to get below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 euro ensemble mean is not as good as the op.. warmer a bit overall. i.e., 0c 850 north of d.c. -- maybe leesburg to balt -- at 6z tue compared to 0c south of d.c. on op at same time. looks north and drier but the mean precip output (dont have overall qpf) almost always looks lesser than the op. 500 similar enough, the ens is a little flatter with the passage around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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