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Feb 22 Snow Threat


WxUSAF

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EURO shows .15 of rain and .56 as snow for both Dulles and Leesburg.

DCA gets .56 of snow qpf but .36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2.

Can't complain I guess at 0.56" QPF that's apparently all snow, on the Euro...even with the "but 0.36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2". Would imply, taken literally, increasing ratios I guess. By the way, do you really mean the 850 at -0.2, and not -2? You mentioned BWI has a similar amount that falls with 850s at -2 so that's why I'm asking. Then again, the gradient will probably be quite sharp, so -0.2 to -2.0 from DCA to BWI might not be off.

Then again, this is just going over minute details for something that's still 3 days away, so it might not really matter that much at this point. I'd take 0.56" QPF that's all snow right now and worry about the fine details later, I think!

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We spent countless hours this season tracking whiffs and now we have what looks to be our 2nd best storm of the season sneak right up on us. Models are all starting to converge on a good solution and the setup isn't overly complicated either. Not saying it's a lock by any stretch but I really like where we sit right now.

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Can't complain I guess at 0.56" QPF that's apparently all snow, on the Euro...even with the "but 0.36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2". Would imply, taken literally, increasing ratios I guess. By the way, do you really mean the 850 at -0.2, and not -2? You mentioned BWI has a similar amount that falls with 850s at -2 so that's why I'm asking. Then again, the gradient will probably be quite sharp, so -0.2 to -2.0 from DCA to BWI might not be off.

Then again, this is just going over minute details for something that's still 3 days away, so it might not really matter that much at this point. I'd take 0.56" QPF that's all snow right now and worry about the fine details later, I think!

BWI is -2.0.(safe)- DCA is -0.2(barley close enough)

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We spent countless hours this season tracking whiffs and now we have what looks to be our 2nd best storm of the season sneak right up on us. Models are all starting to converge on a good solution and the setup isn't overly complicated either. Not saying it's a lock by any stretch but I really like where we sit right now.

True, that! Of course, the same kind of thing happened for the Jan. 26 steroid-induced-Barry-Bonds upper level low system that dumped a quick 8" of snow. That, I seem to recall, also snuck up on us kind of suddenly a couple of days before it happened. That kind of year, I suppose.

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True, that! Of course, the same kind of thing happened for the Jan. 26 steroid-induced-Barry-Bonds upper level low system that dumped a quick 8" of snow. That, I seem to recall, also snuck up on us kind of suddenly a couple of days before it happened. That kind of year, I suppose.

Actually, I think psuhoffman nailed that like 26 days in advance. ;)

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when it warms up and melts really fast after how long will it take for mitchnick to remind us how much this winter sucks?

3.6" of snow and I get to 20" IMBY. With below normal temps in Dec and Jan (Feb too?) and 20" of snow, I call that a solid B/B+ winter.

Speaking of Feb...what's the status of our monthly temps relative to normal to date? Did this week get rid of all the below normal anomaly from the first 2 weeks? If the forecast for next week pans out, I'd wager we end up fairly close to average on the month.

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74/50 spring conditions here in Dale City, daffodils are coming up big time. I can see fresh green grass coming up all over my yard. The last of the snow piles are being burned away. Spring is consolidating its gains - NOT wasting any time. Couple chilly days coming up, some wind, then back to the early spring weather. Time to get the air conditioning checked. Tomorrow's wind gusts may be interesting - but chances are, we'll probably have modest winds ~ 35-45 mph tops. We usually don't get the wind maxes, Maryland does. We're used to it - Northern Virginia has some of the mildest, non-severe weather in the entire world. I need to move to Kansas for true severe wind gusts

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3.6" of snow and I get to 20" IMBY. With below normal temps in Dec and Jan (Feb too?) and 20" of snow, I call that a solid B/B+ winter.

Speaking of Feb...what's the status of our monthly temps relative to normal to date? Did this week get rid of all the below normal anomaly from the first 2 weeks? If the forecast for next week pans out, I'd wager we end up fairly close to average on the month.

DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now.

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DCA was +2.2 as of yesterday with another big + today... I think we'll have trouble finishing much below where we are now.

Thanks...figured we were closer to average than that. Perhaps BWI is a bit lower. I agree that where we are now is probably a good guess for the final departure for the month.

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euro ensemble mean is not as good as the op.. warmer a bit overall. i.e., 0c 850 north of d.c. -- maybe leesburg to balt -- at 6z tue compared to 0c south of d.c. on op at same time. looks north and drier but the mean precip output (dont have overall qpf) almost always looks lesser than the op. 500 similar enough, the ens is a little flatter with the passage around here.

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