Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET has a nasty cutter - might rain all the way to Caribou in that scenario LOL. On the plus side, its 2nd wave is better defined and further north than the GFS, though it still gets caught in the confluence grinder eventually. Lots of warministas humping the GFS today lol.. In for a rude awakening UKMET/GGEM/NAM/GFS are all warm. I guess you've got the NOGAPS in your camp which is comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET/GGEM/NAM/GFS are all warm. I guess you've got the NOGAPS in your camp which is comforting. So that's it then..It's a rainstorm for everyone right? noone sees any snow or ice at all in SNE. That's your call. Luckily it's noone elses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lots of warministas humping the GFS today lol.. In for a rude awakening Well other models also show this, but I'm a little uneasy with how unstable things are. I wouldn't be shocked at a correction south, but the GFS certainly is not unreasonable imo. It all depends on that PV, and I don't think we'll have a great idea at how things progress, until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well other models also show this, but I'm a little uneasy with how unstable things are. I wouldn't be shocked at a correction south, but the GFS certainly is not unreasonable imo. It all depends on that PV, and I don't think we'll have a great idea at how things progress, until tomorrow. Well Messenger has locked up a mild rainstorm for most of NE...so I guess that's the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So that's it then..It's a rainstorm for everyone right? noone sees any snow or ice at all in SNE. That's your call. Luckily it's noone elses No but when every single model that's come in today aside of the NOGAPs is mostly non-snow it's not all that exciting. May change, but your mispresenting things if you're suggesting it's just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 In any case, after next week, it does look interesting with a few threats that John alluded to. We may see the -PNA trough relax in the long term, as Canada remains cool. We'll still have the se ridge to contend with, but it's good to see that -PNA relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nothing but rain events from here on out Monday is 50 and rain to wipe out any remaining snow..and then it's nothing but smooth sailing into spring. Spring flowers bring golden showers ..Some are forecasting this..so it must be the way to lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET/GGEM/NAM/GFS are all warm. I guess you've got the NOGAPS in your camp which is comforting. Okay, we get it - you're thinking warm. That said, I wouldn't hang up on those solutions if I were you. There are plenty of arguments for this to correct S, many of which are proven in history. Namely, descending(ded) NAO means farther south storm track. Also, cold air will tend to verify S of middle range guidance more than 50% of the time. The fact that over the last 24 hours all the runs have flipped flopped on where to align the baroclinic axis is just as overwhelmimg a red flag that says you should not rest on these solutions. Factoring all this stuff, I really believe this comes S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's worth pointing out that even if even if the storm itself cuts across the Great Lakes, the strong WSW flow and WAA at 850/700 mb would likely bring in overrunning precip. well in advance of the low. Therefore, areas like BOS, CON and ORH might see a few hours of thump snow followed by a change to freezing drizzle or light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nothing but rain events from here on out Monday is 50 and rain to wipe out any remaining snow..and then it's nothing but smooth sailing into spring. Spring flowers bring golden showers ..Some are forecasting this..so it must be the way to lean I'm pretty sure he's trying to bust your chops too...lol. 4 days out with this pattern, and anything could happen. As of now, I would just expect snow to some sort of a wintry mix for now, and that might include rain for some. I would not go straight snow or liquid. That's really all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm pretty sure he's trying to bust your chops too...lol. 4 days out with this pattern, and anything could happen. As of now, I would just expect snow to some sort of a wintry mix for now, and that might include rain for some. I would not go straight snow or liquid. That's really all you can say. Of course the posts are intended to irritate me..but he also does really believe this is mostly a non event for all of SNE with predom. rain. just as he also believes there's not a return to any winter coming..and March is mild with little to no snow. That's his forecast..and that's fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 About half of the GFS ensemble members have a strong first system on Mon cutting across northern New England, and half have a much weaker wave heading off the NJ coast or the Delmarva with SNE getting the northern fringe of precip. There is only one member in between, with a track from near BGM to Cape Cod. The mean trended well north from 0z, because of the more elongated polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Okay, we get it - you're thinking warm. That said, I wouldn't hang up on those solutions if I were you. There are plenty of arguments for this to correct S, many of which are proven in history. Namely, descending(ded) NAO means farther south storm track. Also, cold air will tend to verify S of middle range guidance more than 50% of the time. The fact that over the last 24 hours all the runs have flipped flopped on where to align the baroclinic axis is just as overwhelmimg a red flag that says you should not rest on these solutions. Factoring all this stuff, I really believe this comes S... I don't have much of an opinion other way but also don't care about all the earlier solutions that were colder. We're now just starting to get into the nearer term range and as we snapped into the sub 96 hour mode the models just went north. Of course the posts are intended to irritate me..but he also does really believe this is mostly a non event for all of SNE with predom. rain. just as he also believes there's not a return to any winter coming..and March is mild with little to no snow. That's his forecast..and that's fine I've actually said a bunch of times I think it's an up and down pattern and hopefully we get more up (cold) than down. The SE Ridge for the next 2 weeks will probably play more a role than any blocking in terms of sensible weather in SNE. We've been talking about a return to winter for 11+ days. It's almost 60 out, will torch Friday and best case per the models we may get some frozen...pending the Euro, before it warms again. Late in the month things may get better, but a lot of February may have been lost. We'll see how it goes. I'm about to go for a run on a near 60 degree day in February. Hell of a way to run an endless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Then there is the euro, which is snow. Good grief with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro is doing exactly what the GFS is not with the PV...it's keeping it more consolidated and hence confluence is stronger on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I've actually said a bunch of times I think it's an up and down pattern and hopefully we get more up (cold) than down. The SE Ridge for the next 2 weeks will probably play more a role than any blocking in terms of sensible weather in SNE. We've been talking about a return to winter for 11+ days. It's almost 60 out, will torch Friday and best case per the models we may get some frozen...pending the Euro, before it warms again. Late in the month things may get better, but a lot of February may have been lost. We'll see how it goes. I'm about to go for a run on a near 60 degree day in February. Hell of a way to run an endless winter. You like to make statements like this as if people were actually talking about winter returning for this week...we had our frigid day, but this torch was expected too...I made a thread on it back on February 5th. The return to winter talk has been for next week...just because its in the long range doesn't mean its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro is doing exactly what the GFS is not with the PV...it's keeping it more consolidated and hence confluence is stronger on this run. AWT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Then there is the euro, which is snow. Good grief with models. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 No but when every single model that's come in today aside of the NOGAPs is mostly non-snow it's not all that exciting. May change, but your mispresenting things if you're suggesting it's just the GFS. Did you hit 70 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro is back to doing two distinct waves. First wave is advisory snow...much colder than other guidance. We'll see what it does with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Then there is the euro, which is snow. Good grief with models. Put that in your pipes and smoke that shiat warministas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wave #2 stays south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro is also slower to eject energy from the southwest trough. It digs the trough into the southwest which may be why it's a little slower..so perhaps a bias, but the PV imo is the difference maker. It has the elongation to the southwest, but this feature weakens and the PV consolidates as it moves east. It's still a volatile solution, so I wouldn't necessarily lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro is back to doing two distinct waves. First wave is advisory snow...much colder than other guidance. We'll see what it does with the 2nd wave how does it look for upstate NY (north of albany) on the first wave, is the timing early monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro is also slower to eject energy from the southwest trough. It digs the trough into the southwest which may be why it's a little slower..so perhaps a bias, but the PV imo is the difference maker. It has the elongation to the southwest, but this feature weakens and the PV consolidates as it moves east. It's still a volatile solution, so I wouldn't necessarily lock this in. yeah...this is the kind of pattern that is going to make some folks look foolish one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Put that in your pipes and smoke that shiat warministas why so worked up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 why so worked up? Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't have much of an opinion other way but also don't care about all the earlier solutions that were colder. We're now just starting to get into the nearer term range and as we snapped into the sub 96 hour mode the models just went north. /quote] 96 in not really short term - even in the subjective "nearer term" that's dubious as a distinction considering that only one model out of all the Globals boast a better performer on D4 and that's the Euro - Which is mightily south of those other runs We can't discount discontinuity as a the brighter "red flag" amid the GGEM/GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 why so worked up? He could be like the angry televangelist, just telling everyone where to go, and to shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Put that in your pipes and smoke that shiat warministas you get 1-2" over a two day period congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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