NortheastPAWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like another big rainstorm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is anyone else hoping and praying for this thing to shove a little south of predicted....I know I still am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks dude, much appreciated. Always a bit humbling to see the huge gap between my hobbyist knowledge and the experts. Ask any questions that you want. Myself and others will try to answer them. After all, that's partially what this board is for - knowledge sharing! Take Care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 New NAM's a hair southeast, still bringin the heat though..as well as a probable dry slot for central PA before the atmosphere may start supporting any kind of widespread snow with that low track it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey...we're heading up to our camp in Potter County on Friday. I've been trying to keep up with this event for our travel plans. Either way it looks warm enough to keep potential road issues okay with salt, and it looks like we will only run into snow once we get close to the northern tier counties. My main concern is losing power at the camp if the snow is wet and heavy. Yeah I'm thinking you should be ok, with temperatures hoovering around the freezing mark, the roads should be relatively clear or drivable at the least. Where at in Potter do you guys stay? I love it here, if anyone is an outdoors man/women, you can't beat it here in this area! Thats the problem if we do receive mostly snow its going to be extremely wet and heavy and will cause problems, Have a safe trip and good luck! Looking at the latest NAM, I'm thinking CTP has some thinking to do on the WSWs. The 18z GFS is really the only model that is giving me hope atm. If it decides to follow the NAM, CMC, UK, and Euro then we are definitely looking at slop of rain/snow The thing that has me really worried is with the latest QPF, next weeks rain event wants me to prepare my boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is anyone else hoping and praying for this thing to shove a little south of predicted....I know I still am. I know just to be on the safe side, I would like it to move at least 50 miles to the south hopefully you guys can get in on the fun, its no fun watching everyone else suffer The GFS still gives me hope, the NAM is playing hardball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I had a low of -8.8°F this morning! I believe we came pretty close to breaking a record low for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hey man, no reason on giving up hope yet....I'm worried about fzdz tommorrow....its getting mighty cold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah I'm thinking you should be ok, with temperatures hoovering around the freezing mark, the roads should be relatively clear or drivable at the least. Where at in Potter do you guys stay? I love it here, if anyone is an outdoors man/women, you can't beat it here in this area! Thats the problem if we do receive mostly snow its going to be extremely wet and heavy and will cause problems, Have a safe trip and good luck! Looking at the latest NAM, I'm thinking CTP has some thinking to do on the WSWs. The 18z GFS is really the only model that is giving me hope atm. If it decides to follow the NAM, CMC, UK, and Euro then we are definitely looking at slop of rain/snow The thing that has me really worried is with the latest QPF, next weeks rain event wants me to prepare my boat! We have a camp up East Fork Road. Five of my brothers and I own it...four of us will be up there this weekend. It's just a get away weekend for us away from the families and work, nothing is planned except the menu . Our family has been going to Potter County since the 1950's starting with my Dad and Uncles. That generation has passed on, so now we're the old guys. It's a great place for outdoor activities. We don't hunt or fish as much anymore, but still enjoy going up several times a year. I'll check to see if you have any updates before I leave friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is anyone else hoping and praying for this thing to shove a little south of predicted....I know I still am. I know just to be on the safe side, I would like it to move at least 50 miles to the south hopefully you guys can get in on the fun, its no fun watching everyone else suffer The GFS still gives me hope, the NAM is playing hardball. I am sort of pulling for it, but I am driving with two of my interns to this: http://tailgate.tlt.psu.edu/forum-on-media-gaming.html at Penn State Harrisburg Friday. It would kind of suck to deal with the drive back if it is snowing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We have a camp up East Fork Road. Five of my brothers and I own it...four of us will be up there this weekend. It's just a get away weekend for us away from the families and work, nothing is planned except the menu . Our family has been going to Potter County since the 1950's starting with my Dad and Uncles. That generation has passed on, so now we're the old guys. It's a great place for outdoor activities. We don't hunt or fish as much anymore, but still enjoy going up several times a year. I'll check to see if you have any updates before I leave friday. Congrats! enjoy it while you can, family and friends come first and I hope you guys have fun while your here. How far is it from Austin?, the Cross forks/Wharton area is beautiful during the summer and fall and fishing is fantastic in the spring. At least you don't have to worry about the rattlesnakes down there during the winter lol. I will try and keep you guys posted on the weather before you leave on your trip. Its weird really, the climate is such a quite a bit different here compared to southern potter county. I think alot of that has to do with the lower elevation and getting closer to the river valley or maybe just the lower latitude in general idk. Hopefully if it does snow, the heavy nature of it doesn't hamper your plans, nothing like losing electric on a get away trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Current temp is 13.4°F which is already lower than forecasted, the cloud cover stayed away for the time being, but should begin to fill in rather quickly. This storm is going to be soooo interesting I can't wait. The potential is there for a whole variety of options. Hopefully we stay mostly snow but if not the QPF amounts close to a inch again should make for a great storm none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Tony or anyone You said that you was looking at the 925 temps. Alot of times 850 temps get used as reference. Looking at these upper level temps is it important to look at each layer. Or just looking at one level will that pretty much indicate what the temp are going to be. I guess what I am asking is any one level more important? Thank You for your replies! It is important to look at the temperatures at each layer and even the whole atmosphere when dealing with a complex winter storm. Looking at one or two levels may give you a quick and dirty diagnosis of the atmosphere, but there could be something significant between levels that an individual layer doesn't capture. Forecast skew-t's are my favorite tool during complex winter events. They break down the temperature all throughout the atmosphere, so you can see if there is a layer of warm air around a certain layer and see how thick that layer is. That could mean the difference between sleet and freezing rain. Below is the Skew-T for Bradford Friday morning. The red line is temperature and the temps (in C) are along the bottom and are the dark lines that go up and to the right. In this case, the temperature from 700mb down is right around the freezing mark, so this is a touchy forecast for that area. To me, both of these soundings would indicate rain, since the snowflakes would melt between 700mb and 800mb. Both models have a layer near freezing closer to the ground, but chances are the raindrop would not have time to refreeze again. If it did, it would become a sleet pellet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Three reasons: - In the case of one of our best posters who will only get better, Eskimo Joe, maybe not knowing the exact climo of March here or long-term models? Not to put words in his mouth. - Emotional posts. It's been proven, all of us lose intelligence when we get emotional, so we don't think things through. - Spring fever. Thursday/Friday did feel good. Agreed, that was why I was especially surprised to see him make that comment. He has provided really top notch analysis during the past few winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It is important to look at the temperatures at each layer and even the whole atmosphere when dealing with a complex winter storm. Looking at one or two levels may give you a quick and dirty diagnosis of the atmosphere, but there could be something significant between levels that an individual layer doesn't capture. Forecast skew-t's are my favorite tool during complex winter events. They break down the temperature all throughout the atmosphere, so you can see if there is a layer of warm air around a certain layer and see how thick that layer is. That could mean the difference between sleet and freezing rain. Below is the Skew-T for Bradford Friday morning. The red line is temperature and the temps (in C) are along the bottom and are the dark lines that go up and to the right. In this case, the temperature from 700mb down is right around the freezing mark, so this is a touchy forecast for that area. To me, both of these soundings would indicate rain, since the snowflakes would melt between 700mb and 800mb. Both models have a layer near freezing closer to the ground, but chances are the raindrop would not have time to refreeze again. If it did, it would become a sleet pellet. Brain Thank You for taking the time to explain the charts to me!! The Skew-T chart then is the forecast soundings. The green line then is the dew-point? 12 degrees here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This chart shows that the dew-point temps are colder than the temperature. What impact does that have if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This chart shows that the dew-point temps are colder than the temperature. What impact does that have if any? That can bring the air temperature down a bit. When precipitation starts falling high up in the atmosphere and it falls into an environment that is not saturated, it evaporates. Evaporation is a cooling process so it cools the air. That is why we will talk about low dewpoints being an indications that temperatures may fall as much as several degrees when the precipitation finally makes it to the ground. The difference between the air temp and the dewpoint temp is the key -- in this case the difference is fairly small, so I would only anticipate a little cooling once the precipitation begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That can bring the air temperature down a bit. When precipitation starts falling high up in the atmosphere and it falls into an environment that is not saturated, it evaporates. Evaporation is a cooling process so it cools the air. That is why we will talk about low dewpoints being an indications that temperatures may fall as much as several degrees when the precipitation finally makes it to the ground. The difference between the air temp and the dewpoint temp is the key -- in this case the difference is fairly small, so I would only anticipate a little cooling once the precipitation begins. Thanks Brain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Welcome back High wind watches. It's going to be dang windy after this storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 so what is the latest thinking for p-type in the north central mountains north and west of Williamsport? rain thursday night changing to snow frday or just all out plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Weather World did their Climate Watch segment last night in which they issue a general forecast for the upcoming 30 days or so. Summarizing... - At least 16 of the next 28 days with measurable rain or snow. - No prolonged warm or cold spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Whole kitty caboodle out there. High wind watches, flood watches, winter storm watches. Fun fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Video from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 And no headlines for the BGM FA. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 i'll take some rain. We need it. i think we are an 1 1/2 short to date here in the Hbg area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Kinda dead here...lol...I'm excited for the rain and wind....weather is weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Kinda dead here...lol...I'm excited for the rain and wind....weather is weather!! i agree, this should be a fun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Same old story of the winter...so close to the big snows but on the wrong side of things. Only this time too far east after being too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Same old story of the winter...so close to the big snows but on the wrong side of things. Only this time too far east after being too far west. yup same for me. just like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Sleet and Rain mixed here in the mountains of Lycoming cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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