EasternUSWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drizzle action has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 My mom called me a bit ago...Heavy Sleet in Allenwood, PA covering the road...she works at Evangelical Hosp. in Lewisburg...reports just rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder if CTP is ever going to upgrade their WSW to a winter storm warning or WAA. At this point the 18z NAM and GFS both show close to 10" of snow for the event. CTP is going conservative with amounts of 6-9" so far in the regional forecast. Temperatures have been falling slowly since 2PM and we are now down to 36.5°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder if CTP is ever going to upgrade their WSW to a winter storm warning or WAA. At this point the 18z NAM and GFS both show close to 10" of snow for the event. CTP is going conservative with amounts of 6-9" so far in the regional forecast. Temperatures have been falling slowly since 2PM and we are now down to 36.5°F. It's a very close call, esp for the Elk/Cameron part of the watch. Our in-house model shows 1-3" for Elk and Cameron, and 3 to 5" north of there to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's a very close call, esp for the Elk/Cameron part of the watch. Our in-house model shows 1-3" for Elk and Cameron, and 3 to 5" north of there to the border. really only 3-5" ...I wonder why the NAM and GFS are printing out more? Well whatever the amount, regardless there is going to be plenty of QPF amounts and with the mon-tue big rain event, things are looking like I might need to get my boat out. I just took a snow core sample and had 1.5-1.75" of liquid, so by the time the rain washes it away, I will probably be looking at 4-5" of total liquid into the river basin, not gooooood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like we had our snow earlier in the week. Which was the biggest total I have had in a couple years. 8.5" Also looks like we could maybe pick up and 1-2" on Sunday. I'm just wondering how much snow is going to be left after all the rain? Looks like the northern tier is going to get some snow according to this map. So Pottercounty you could get some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like we had our snow earlier in the week. Which was the biggest total I have had in a couple years. 8.5" Also looks like we could maybe pick up and 1-2" on Sunday. I'm just wondering how much snow is going to be left after all the rain? Looks like the northern tier is going to get some snow according to this map. So Pottercounty you could get some decent snow. I will take 9" in a heart beat ...hopefully the rain doesn't wash all your guys snowpack away. It doesn't matter really because the storm after this one is going to wipe out everyones snowpack regardless of where your at in PA, which has me extremely worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Models appeared to come south the last couple of runs, lets see if that will help the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This Ptype map doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The new 18z GFS and perhaps to a lesser extent the NAM seems to be reintroducing the possiblity of a changeover Friday with a bit of substance, perhaps a couple inches or so for some of the folks that are getting rain tonight. I know I said yesterday that if there were any more flood watches i'd have thought they'd be placed in the southern half of the Sus Valley in the fashion of how the high wind watch headline got placed in that area. So obviously I was a bit wrong since we have watches covering the southern 2/3rds of PA. I'm still not impressed with flood potential with this one outside of maybe some urban/small stream flood advisories cropping up in alot of places with the heavy rainfall and some sharp rises but alot of caution to perhaps some scattered minor flood stage. I just think its going to be too cold, State College is still 32 to 33 degrees attm with Altoona 36, etc. Temps are probably gonna hold in the mid-upper 30s for most of the rainfall so the snows gonna absorb it for awhile. Now the early next week storm is something i'd be more concerned about possibly, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The new 18z GFS and perhaps to a lesser extent the NAM seems to be reintroducing the possiblity of a changeover Friday with a bit of substance, perhaps a couple inches or so for some of the folks that are getting rain tonight. I know I said yesterday that if there were any more flood watches i'd have thought they'd be placed in the southern half of the Sus Valley in the fashion of how the high wind watch headline got placed in that area. So obviously I was a bit wrong since we have watches covering the southern 2/3rds of PA. I'm still not impressed with flood potential with this one outside of maybe some urban/small stream flood advisories cropping up in alot of places with the heavy rainfall and some sharp rises but alot of caution to perhaps some scattered minor flood stage. I just think its going to be too cold, State College is still 32 to 33 degrees attm with Altoona 36, etc. Temps are probably gonna hold in the mid-upper 30s for most of the rainfall so the snows gonna absorb it for awhile. Now the early next week storm is something i'd be more concerned about possibly, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Shhhh! We're not supposed to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Shhhh! We're not supposed to say that Hey I was only wrong in thinking CTP would put headlines in a particular area, so its their fault. Now if everyones gettin flooded out tomorrow.. well haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes please!! It looks like their recent updated map is showing a slightly further south solution. Temperatures are still slowly falling now down to 34.7°Fnow. I really wish CTP would elaborate more on their Watch and why they haven't updated their current thinking on the storm while HPC has suggest with great confidence of 12"+ which would easily warrant a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Heavy Sleet for much of the last hour or so....driveway is covered...33.9* so 34 pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 32.6* here....roads are a slushy mess...at least over here on the mountain...light rain when precip lets up, sleet when it comes down heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 What do you think MAG, Jmister, or JST? Williamsport, your colder than me at the moment, I'm only sitting at 34.1°F but temperatures are still steadily cooling. We missed out on the first batch that just rolled through that you experienced. Earlier this morning we had a quick burst of snow with about .1" so not much to speak of. I'm hoping to get 6" anything above 12" will cause me to through a party!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Hmm, precip is just about to begin here with the temperature at the State College airport at 32. Walker building is down to 33.8. I noticed that the 18z NAM wants to bring the surface down another few degrees when the heavier precip moves in around 7-8z. It will be interesting to see if some of the cooler regions in the central/northern portions of the state can get some slippery spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 31.7* here....heavy fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 31.7* here....heavy fog. to help you out because I never knew how to make a degree sign, hold alt then type 0176 and release the alt button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 They must be busy, or can't decide what to issue? I really didn't think it was going to be that close, I wonder if they are thinking slight warmer solution than the NAM and 18z GFS. I'm willing to bet Elk, and Cameron see a WWA and McKean, Tioga, Warren, and Potter see a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z nam is much colder with its projected path of the low just south of the md line. The 1000-850 thicknesses stay below 1320dm for most of cpa, except south of the t-pike. 850-700 thicknesses (great indicator of warm air aloft) shows 1560dm up to I-80, even a bit north of there. Looks messy from Kane to Mansfield northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 They must be busy, or can't decide what to issue? I really didn't think it was going to be that close, I wonder if they are thinking slight warmer solution than the NAM and 18z GFS They'll probably get things straightened out within the hour with what they're going to do with their headline placement. Given the placement of NWS Pittsburghs headlines the smart money is on Elk and Cameron going over to advisories and the northern watch counties over to warnings. Your in about as good of shape as can be compared to the other CPA posters in here being right near the New York border, so I would expect perhaps some initial mixing issues going over to snow and a good 4-8 is probably a safe bet. Def a chance for you to see more of an 8-10 event, but this is gonna be 8-10:1 ratio snow at best along with the possibility of some mixing for the early parts of the Def not much temp separation at the surface between the northern tier and central counties currently, with State College, Altoona, Johnstown, and Williamsport all reporting like 32 or 33 degrees. Don't really expect too many surprises but the models were a hair further south at 18z. With these initial temps right now pretty close to freezing, wouldn't be surprised to see some brief mixing at the onset of the primary bulk of precip at these central locations. And as i'm writing this i'm hearing rumor the 0z NAM has come even further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z nam is much colder with its projected path of the low just south of the md line. The 1000-850 thicknesses stay below 1320dm for most of cpa, except south of the t-pike. 850-700 thicknesses (great indicator of warm air aloft) shows 1560dm up to I-80, even a bit north of there. Looks messy from Kane to Mansfield northward. As in sleet? lol sorry my term for messy is sleet or mix Or you just mean slipper travel in general. I will keep you guys posted during the morning hours when it rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z nam is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0z nam is south. good, get my CPA brotherns in the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Don't think we'll get in on it brother...but I'm pulling for ya...you could be the sweet spot with this late in the game south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Close... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_018l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 As in sleet? lol sorry my term for messy is sleet or mix Or you just mean slipper travel in general. I will keep you guys posted during the morning hours when it rolls through. Sleet and freezing rain, and some snow. It's just really warm upstairs. If I were a betting man, or forecast the weather for that area, I would say Erie to Bradford has the best chance to stay all snow and pick up over 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Don't think we'll get in on it brother...but I'm pulling for ya...you could be the sweet spot with this late in the game south shift Well heres hoping this storm provides some surprises ...In the end though, we are all going to lose, the next storm looks like a beast (even if it is rain), interesting times ahead for weather fanatics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Sleet and freezing rain, and some snow. It's just really warm upstairs. If I were a betting man, or forecast the weather for that area, I would say Erie to Bradford has the best chance to stay all snow and pick up over 8. I'm looking forward to it regardless, these storms mean business. I will try and provide updates throughout the storm tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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