EasternUSWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ok now attention turns to potential flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ok now attention turns to potential flooding rains. Not going to find comfort in the dry slot this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Snow cover + 1-2" of rain, then another storm a few days later 1"+ is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is there any shot that us northern guys don't see all rain from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Probably not...it looks like a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is there any shot that us northern guys don't see all rain from this? Could get some backlash snow. Southern areas get tons of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 @Wmsptwx Most of the precip verbatim falls before temps go below freezing. We could see C-1", maybe 2" on the backend...but it's mostly rain for us even north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hmm well, the NAM still slides the low underneath the mason-dixon line. If this low does end up sneaking under the mason-dixon line it's going to be hairline for a lot of folks in the central and northern regions. Turnpike and south probably are looking at all rain, between turnpike and I-80 in the central counties it could be a rain to snow scenario, and above I-80 may see more in the way of snow, but after initial mix/rain. The UK and Euro seem to be the only ones driving the low up through Pittsburgh or a bit north of that, while the GFS is of course keeping the hopes alive for everyone. The GFS is most likely too far southeast as it usually is. But other than that models are actually clustered fairly close today. Gonna be interesting. I tend to think that that the European model maybe too far north with the low, as I think the new snowpack could keep the baroclinic boundary further south and allow for the the mason-dixon type track to come to fruition. And then the question is, can the storm deepen enough to draw down enough cool enough air to change folks over. I do know that the new NAM is putting down alot of rain. But fortunately, temps are only modeled on that NAM run to be in the 30s for the rain. So the snow is going to be absorbing that for awhile in that scenario. I'd become more concerned if a Euro type track or worse starts showing up, cuz that would probably send temps along the southern tier alot higher. We'll see if the GFS folds shortly, or if it continues to provide the chance for the biggest snow on snow punch of the winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS dumps down the rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 new gfs would give i80 north several inches of sn after some rain first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 new gfs would give i80 north several inches of sn after some rain first. The GFS is really fuzzy for much of CPA. Its a case of heavy precip rates/dynamic cooling creating heavy snow. Time is ticking.... we're close to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 new gfs would give i80 north several inches of sn after some rain first. it'd actually be more than those folks even, at hour 66 the GFS is all snow for everyone on its p-types except for the piece of PA that involves the Philly burbs and Philly proper. GFS is still playing hardball with the southeast envelope, but this looks to have come a bit north into maybe believable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 it'd actually be more than those folks even, at hour 66 the GFS is all snow for everyone on its p-types except for the piece of PA that involves the Philly burbs and Philly proper. GFS is still playing hardball with the southeast envelope, but this looks to have come a bit north into maybe believable range. Im looking on the accu pro site. Gives many of us 4 to 6 inches, with a bit more in the mtns. Not including Philly area as you mentioned. It did move north a bit, really close to the nam. Just colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Pretty cold tonight so far. Down to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Im looking on the accu pro site. Gives many of us 4 to 6 inches, with a bit more in the mtns. Not including Philly area as you mentioned. It did move north a bit, really close to the nam. Just colder. Yea this is def not a slam dunk yet, especially once above the turnpike. And actually after having a look at the 12z GGEM a bit ago, that had the low pretty much along the m/d line too. Throwing in the 12z NOGAPS its right in the mix too with a low track similar to the GGEM making a pretty nice cluster bounded on the ends by the GFS and Europeans. The Euro and UKMET are the only ones that take the storm on a track that would def be all rain for most everyone. It just HAS to snow with this.. i mean i seen the ultimate red flag in forecast guidance today... THUS EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO GO OVER TO MAINLY SNOW LATER FRIDAY...FROM NW TO SE. DID EDGE SNOW AMTS UP A LITTLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Pretty cold tonight so far. Down to 10. I'll say. Thomasville is now 0F at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll say. Thomasville is now 0F at midnight. Meanwhile, KLNS is at 16F and KMDT is still a balmy 19F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'll say. Thomasville is now 0F at midnight. Yea there could be some really cold temps tonight in the usual spots with this brand new snowpack. Here locally the Barrens southwest of State College will probably have subzero temps. Did see a 2ºF on the Pine Grove Mills end of town as per mesowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Currently -.1°F and clear skies, should be interesting how low we can go. With the average of a degree a hour, I'd put my money on a reading of somewhere between -6°F and -10°F but who knows for sure. The next event for PA looks to be the last chance for major snow. The next couple of events later in the longer range look bleak at best. For the most part, looks like La Nina is going to win with GLC left and right. The CPC says the AO, NAO stay positive and the PNA negative, which spells uhhh oh for snow lovers unless we can get help from an occasional -EPO bout. As long as the SE ridge doesn't flex its muscles to much, most areas can still see at least a chance ie "battleground" but it definitely makes me nervous. Isn't March typically favorable for snow during La Nina winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Currently -.1°F and clear skies, should be interesting how low we can go. With the average of a degree a hour, I'd put my money on a reading of somewhere between -6°F and -10°F but who knows for sure. The next event for PA looks to be the last chance for major snow. The next couple of events later in the longer range look bleak at best. For the most part, looks like La Nina is going to win with GLC left and right. The CPC says the AO, NAO stay positive and the PNA negative, which spells uhhh oh for snow lovers unless we can get help from an occasional -EPO bout. As long as the SE ridge doesn't flex its muscles to much, most areas can still see at least a chance ie "battleground" but it definitely makes me nervous. Isn't March typically favorable for snow during La Nina winters? Certainly up your way, I think you're far from done. (at least as far as chances go) Even with a crappy pattern upcoming over the next couple of weeks, you can still cash in big time in mid March. Heck, I had a foot down here on the 16th just 4 years ago. And that was like 2 days after I hit 80. Honestly, I still think the southern tier is in the running for something special later in March. Big snows that late in the season, while not exactly "normal", have happened several times that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Winter is over for locations south the of the Turnpike. The Turnpike north to I-80 has until the end of February, and then I-80 north has the first ten days of March. Lan Nina is p/o'ed! Not trying to single this poster out, but there were several here in our thread that called winter over 2 weeks ago...why? Before Valentine's day? We were moving into a crappy pattern with no significant winter threats upcoming in the near future at the time, but look what happened...less than 2 weeks later, areas south of the 'pike got upwards of 10" of snow in spots. The area he is from had about 5"...not too shabby considering winter's over. I'm sorry, but I've been reading so many "winter's over" posts recently and it's gotten me a little testy. I was saying back then, and I'll say it again, winter is not over. We have at least another month of potential opportunities ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The new euro is a hair southeast bringing the low right thru PA, but it is still very warm with +6ºC 2m temps at UNV and 9 at AOO, and a whopping 14.6ºC (58ºF) at MDT. I think regardless of the ptype, temps that high are highly unlikely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Definitely cold here this morning 5°F at my house. Mag and Tony Thanks for the updates and thoughts. I enjoy reading them!! Snow would definitely be better than rain at this point. Don't really need no flooding. Going to get another cup of coffee and look at the models. Everyone have a great day!! Edit: I see Bellefonte is -2 °F State College 8°F http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=CTPfwz&address=&type=&noho=&rawsflag=290 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm sorry, but I've been reading so many "winter's over" posts recently and it's gotten me a little testy. I was saying back then, and I'll say it again, winter is not over. We have at least another month of potential opportunities ahead of us. I agree!! We have had some decent snow in March and even April. Good thing about April snows is, they don't stick around long. CMC shows rain I see. NWS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not trying to single this poster out, but there were several here in our thread that called winter over 2 weeks ago...why? Before Valentine's day? We were moving into a crappy pattern with no significant winter threats upcoming in the near future at the time, but look what happened...less than 2 weeks later, areas south of the 'pike got upwards of 10" of snow in spots. The area he is from had about 5"...not too shabby considering winter's over. I'm sorry, but I've been reading so many "winter's over" posts recently and it's gotten me a little testy. I was saying back then, and I'll say it again, winter is not over. We have at least another month of potential opportunities ahead of us. Three reasons: - In the case of one of our best posters who will only get better, Eskimo Joe, maybe not knowing the exact climo of March here or long-term models? Not to put words in his mouth. - Emotional posts. It's been proven, all of us lose intelligence when we get emotional, so we don't think things through. - Spring fever. Thursday/Friday did feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Three reasons: - Spring fever. Thursday/Friday did feel good. Jamie that sure was a teaser of whats to come. I like reading Joes posts!! Sometimes we all posts things that are emotional.Which is to be expected...with the way the models like to mess with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Jamie that sure was a teaser of whats to come. I like reading Joes posts!! Sometimes we all posts things that are emotional.Which is to be expected...with the way the models like to mess with us. Right.....totally agree on all points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Dropped to around 2-3° here this morning. A personal weather station on wunderground not too far away fell to -3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Dropped to around 2-3° here this morning. A personal weather station on wunderground not too far away fell to -3°. We got to 0.9. Just missed minus zero number four of the year. Thurs night Fri is going to be a close call around here. I wonder if it will be elevation dependent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We got to 0.9. Just missed minus zero number four of the year. Thurs night Fri is going to be a close call around here. I wonder if it will be elevation dependent? Good question, my guess is no. I think lattitude is much more important than elevation on this one. The further north the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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