weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro is 200 miles further west vs 0Z with Thurs/Friday system. Was way OTS 0z, now gets eastern areas with accumulating snows. Trend is favorable but it may need to be an exact threader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro is 200 miles further west vs 0Z with Thurs/Friday system. Was way OTS 0z, now gets eastern areas with accumulating snows. Trend is favorable but it may need to be an exact threader. Yeah it's pretty vigorous with the srn stream s/w. Still lots of confluence over us, but a nice step anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ~.08" for ct blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At this stage, that might be too far NW. I think we want just a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At this stage, that might be too far NW. I think we want just a trace. Id rather be here then Virginia still IMO. Better chance it goes farther north and west I think then goes OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro gives us a few inches at least Tuesday. Plenty of time to trend it a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 15z SREFs hit E Ma on tues with 0.5 QPF but looks like it's pretty torched at the surface but cold enough at 850 for snow. I expect a NW trend with time... considering how the recent storms have come in from this 72ish hour lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 SREFs are really bullish at 15z...now bring a secondary SE of ACK and have eastern areas over 0.50" of qpf...though there mught be some initial ptype issues right along coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 SREFs are really bullish at 15z...now bring a secondary SE of ACK and have eastern areas over 0.50" of qpf...though there mught be some initial ptype issues right along coastal regions. Yeah threading the needle in the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah threading the needle in the BL Scooter likes the idea of snow Tuesday...seems like you're on board?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Scooter likes the idea of snow Tuesday...seems like you're on board?? I'm like at the station...deciding whether to buy a ticket right now. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Warm at surface, but 850s cold... verbatim, we may be able to make up whatever we lose to snowpack today based on SREFs for Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18Z NAM outside the BM but throws some mod precip into EMA and most of SNE but I could easily see it tick more amped and closer. I'm actually more worried about it hugging too close and tracking over the canal than going way OTS. Maybe I'm alone in that thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18Z NAM outside the BM but throws some mod precip into EMA and most of SNE but I could easily see it tick more amped and closer. I'm actually more worried about it hugging too close and tracking over the canal than going way OTS. Maybe I'm alone in that thought... yeah nam is real close to a bigh hit. we know it will continue west track I need it over the cape to give me heavy snows MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18Z NAM definitely continuing the NW trend for Monday night and Tuesday. Mid-levels are good for SNE, but low-levels suck for areas outside the Berks and the ORH Hills. A deeper storm closer to the coast could definitely mitigate the issue in the low-levels provided it doesn't come too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18Z NAM definitely continuing the NW trend for Monday night and Tuesday. Mid-levels are good for SNE, but low-levels suck for areas outside the Berks and the ORH Hills. A deeper storm closer to the coast could definitely mitigate the issue in the low-levels provided it doesn't come too far NW. Glad you're posting more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ah, good to see the trend still our friend.........the KGAY storm lives on!! The Arctic powder keg shall produce my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ah, good to see the trend still our friend.........the KGAY storm lives on!! The Arctic powder keg shall produce my friends. Lol...it's gonna be a wet snowstorm..not powder..any snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lol...it's gonna be a wet snowstorm..not powder..any snow is good snow poweder meaning BOOM kev, all the ingredients there to produce something special, a sneak attack, hell of a temp gradient for this to work off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lol...it's gonna be a wet snowstorm..not powder..any snow is good snow Yea.. cept the kind that turns to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Srefs are terrible outside of 36 hrs just look at this event today. Surest way to make it rain lately is talk of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro ensemble mean was pretty bullish for something Tuesday....gets a nice secondary sfc reflection going. The more defined it is, the better chance of throwing back a decent amount of moisture to its northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Srefs are terrible outside of 36 hrs just look at this event today. Surest way to make it rain lately is talk of snow here. True, though pretty much all NCEP guidance was roughed up with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Srefs are terrible outside of 36 hrs just look at this event today. Surest way to make it rain lately is talk of snow here. I know... just trying to find some light somewhere... it was an incredible 5 weeks. I like the "wet rag on snowstorm potential since 1997" signature better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 True, though pretty much all NCEP guidance was roughed up with this event. Euro wasn't too hot either... it's as if the models aren't ready for this pattern change either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Why is everyone so worried about Tuesday???? What has the trend been all year?? NW NW NW NW NW... Look at the storm that is currently happening, it moved 300 miles NW 48 hours out... look at the last storm.. and the last storm... This one is going to hit. Easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Why is everyone so worried about Tuesday???? What has the trend been all year?? NW NW NW NW NW... Look at the storm that is currently happening, it moved 300 miles NW 48 hours out... look at the last storm.. and the last storm... This one is going to hit. Easy. No it moved nw on the lousy ncep guidance. Rgem was a torch for days. Same goes for Tuesday ride the rgem starting tonight and Sunday, forget ncrap stuff. Euro and it's ensembles were not very good either. Gfs was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro ensemble mean was pretty bullish for something Tuesday....gets a nice secondary sfc reflection going. The more defined it is, the better chance of throwing back a decent amount of moisture to its northwest. Things really starting to come together fora nice hit Tuesday morning/Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NAM is too warm for meaningful snow Monday/Tues. Drives BL temps above freezing pretty deep into the interior. We'll see. I like the Thurs/Friday idea of something very big before a major pattern change to mild biased with cold lurking not too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Meanwhile, I don't see us losing all that much snow today. Temps at the surface are barely above freezing here and holding. Good thing the snowpack doesn't live at H925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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