Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Me either...and you have to wonder if even that may be a little underdone. Models often aren't deep enough. It was nice to see the GFS stronger with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It was nice to see the GFS stronger with the 12z run. and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO out to hr 42. I don't see any big differences so far. I do notice more qpf near SD/ND with the WAA snows compared to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro has the vort max in NW mexico at 48 hours...the SLP will probably start out pretty far south on this run. 850s at 48 are closer to the nam then GFS.. this will probably look closer to the nam but slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 at 48 hrs, euro is a smidge higher with heights in the east and out ahead of the trough, compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Stronger high pressure and CAA through 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro has the vort max in NW mexico at 48 hours...the SLP will probably start out pretty far south on this run. It looks like another icy run down the line for LAF. As far as exact strength/track, too hard to say yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HR 60: Sub 1004 low near the TX/NM border. Looks stronger and a tad slower so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you can cut the tension with a knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Stronger WAA precip over the lower GL/.OV by 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i go out to the bar for a night and you guys add like 40 pages and a whole new thread, I won't even bother trying to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Stronger high pressure and CAA through 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you can cut the tension with a knife My heart's definitely running a littler faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My first guess is gonna be this will be a tad farther SE compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you can cut the tension with a knife Yeah, and just think we have another 5+ runs of the Euro to go before Tuesday lol. So far it sounds like the Euro is holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From the early reports from friv/joe/MM seems like it's going to stand pat. But so did the GEM until 84 so it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you can cut the tension with a knife I'm eating Taco Mayo for lunch right now...that and a key model run is just recipe for a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks like it will be south unless it cuts real hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sorry I can't read through all the previous posts, has anyone posted this yet? MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1219 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTION WHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVE POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...AND GIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLE INITIALIZATION...PRODUCES THE MOST PREFERRED SOLUTION. ...UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 72 hr SLP in SE Texas..close to the LA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It looks like another icy run down the line for LAF. As far as exact strength/track, too hard to say yet. hmm, maybe not. I'm just gonna be quiet and watch the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 78hrs: 1004mb SLP elongated from C. Arkansas to N. Louisiana. Nice hit from OK to MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks the same at hr 78 compared to 0z. Just a tad slower HR 78; Sub 1004 low in C. ARK 0z HR 90: Sub 1004 low in N. ARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 at 72 the euro is about 30 or so miles further higher with heights in the east vs the GFS more of the northern stream digging in out west, as the PV is centered a bit to the NW of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 78hrs: 1004mb SLP elongated from C. Arkansas to N. Louisiana. Nice hit from OK to MO. 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in the Missouri Bootheel. A hair south of 0z, but in the exact same track as the NAM. Nice hit from NE. KAsnas to C. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 72 hr SLP in SE Texas..close to the LA border. I would say more eastern or NE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 78hrs: 1004mb SLP elongated from C. Arkansas to N. Louisiana. Nice hit from OK to MO. Now AccuPro text needs to update already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in the Missouri Bootheel. A hair south of 0z, but in the exact same track as the NAM. Nice hit from NE. KAsnas to C. Illinois. So the precip is displaced NW of where the nam is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'd bet my heart rate is def faster during this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in the Missouri Bootheel. A hair south of 0z, but in the exact same track as the NAM. Nice hit from NE. KAsnas to C. Illinois. 90hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from MO/IA to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.