dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One last thing. If it's any consolation, this is the only storm this season I've really been very optimistic about. For me (debbie downer) to be this excited about a storm should mean something. Don't sweat it. Its a thread. The gem was going to come in like it did regardless of who started it.. I'm happy to see the ggem come south. Although I agree, the gem has been horrible. But the gem, I believe, was the furthest west when the euro was suppressed. And it was the furthest west with last storm.. before it shifted east then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I did. Tough to bet against the King and a high res model which agrees with the King. It is, but the thermal gradient is so tight that it wouldn't take a big geographic shift on these models to clobber us. I'm not completely writing off a massive snowstorm yet but I'd say odds are a bit against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like from 48-60hrs it sort of rips it to pieces. Meanwhile, every other model run up until this point (including previous runs of the GEM) are amplifying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Don't sweat it. Its a thread. The gem was going to come in like it did regardless of who started it.. I'm happy to see the ggem come south. Although I agree, the gem has been horrible. But the gem, I believe, was the furthest west when the euro was suppressed. And it was the furthest west with last storm.. before it shifted east then as well. The 00z run was on the verge of bringing rain up here. Awful continuity and not believable until something else supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'd highly favor the NAM with it's resolution and ability to pick up on storm development in the plains over the GGEM right now. And it's really hard to totally discount the slow but steady trend of the GFS towards a more NAM like solution. I sense fear and the history of this winter is motivating your attempt to be rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Any news on the ukmet? In about 20 minutes. From what it looks like at 72, it won't be anything like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 before everyone panics. the 12z NAM is almost a carbon copy with last nights 00z euro.....it may be a touch more amplified. compared to its previous runs, the GFS took a MASSIVE step towards the euro/NAm combo at 12z, by hr 90 of its run, with trough position, strength and amplification of the heights. the fact that the latest GFS took this big a step towards the NAM/euro practically invalidates the GGEM run, which again, has been atrocious this year....at least in handling big storms in the east and northeast. now IF the GFS hadnt made such a move today at 12z, and had remained similar to its previous runs, then id be more concerned. having said all that, no storm is a lock with the energy still out in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It is, but the thermal gradient is so tight that it wouldn't take a big geographic shift on these models to clobber us. I'm not completely writing off a massive snowstorm yet but I'd say odds are a bit against it. 25% massive snowstorm for us 70% ice/sleet megastorm 5% all precip is 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If (and it's a monumental IF) this storm potential ends up fizzling, I'm going to be off tracking for at least a little while. feb 09, took the rest of the winter off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In about 20 minutes. From what it looks like at 72, it won't be anything like the GGEM. Good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 STL 12Z NAM Bufkit, last frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 25% massive snowstorm for us 70% ice/sleet megastorm 5% all precip is 33 and rain 60 percent chance massive snow storm for you. 40 percent chance massive sleet and snow storm. 0 percent chance for rain. Enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Out with old, in with the new wallpaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Widespread foot totals Tuesday-Wednesday can't come soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 00z run was on the verge of bringing rain up here. Awful continuity and not believable until something else supports it. I'm to the point of hoping that we just don't get the crushing ice storm the gfs shows. I like the gem cause it went more in line with the low track I thought would happen Last week when I mentioned this storm. GFS has what would normally be a good track for OH but even with the low in KY it still brings in the waa and brings 1.5" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 feb 09, took the rest of the winter off. Yeah. Something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 about 15 more miles and im good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Those are some outrageous VV's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will be interesting to see if the GGEM ensembles support the OP run much, if they do my concern will grow some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 is there a 72 hr ukie posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 is there a 72 hr ukie posted? Page 1 by yours truly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 60 percent chance massive snow storm for you. 40 percent chance massive sleet and snow storm. 0 percent chance for rain. Enjoy this one. As usual, you're a beacon of optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGem south or not, i have been getting worried since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will be interesting to see if the GGEM ensembles support the OP run much, if they do my concern will grow some. Don't worry about that atrocious model.. Some model was bound to come in wacked up..I'd Just keep and eye on the big 3/4 with this one, Nam, Gfs, Euro, and maybe Ukie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will be interesting to see if the GGEM ensembles support the OP run much, if they do my concern will grow some. Thinking back on it, there were a fair number yesterday that were showing a coastal. Also a fair bit showing a further NW track than the 0z GGEM, so the mean kind of hid the disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.