cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think one thing's for certain, there's gonna be a lot of very happy board members by Wednesday. Definitely the potential for a few members to pick up over 15" of synoptic snow alone. The average of the models seems to place the best threat for the heaviest snows from central Missouri, through central/northeast Illinois, much of northern and central Indiana, and into southern Michigan. Ohio remains sort of a mystery since the evolution of the surface low remains key for that area later in the game. A quicker occlusion would yield them more snow. Here in the DVN area we sit on the northwestern edge of the best snows from the looks of things. Really not a bad area to be. We may not cash in with the heaviest snows, but at least we shouldn't have to deal with mixing issues for once lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 shhhh the board will go into a frenzy That one could be further east and south.. LOL Hey I'll take my 3-6 snow then getting my @$$ kicked by ice then all snow next Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Cyclone, you and I should have good ratios. So we may only receive .3-.5 qpf, but ratios should be near 14-16:1. So even us should get at least 4-5 inches which wouldnt be a bad storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Cyclone, you and I should have good ratios. So we may only receive .3-.5 qpf, but ratios should be near 14-16:1. So even us should get at least 4-5 inches which wouldnt be a bad storm. Yeah ratios should be very nice for us. The wind may lower it a little, but with 850mb temps at -10C or lower we should make the most of the QPF available to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW, DTX's grids are already calling for 6-12". From Monday Night through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If you are looking for a southern solution and need encouragement, check out the pinned thread on the main page. Not a lot of good info, but plenty of opinions that it's not going as far north as the NAM/GFS/Euro would imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBerg Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is going to be an extremely difficult forecast for my region - portions of our region may have significant ice and sleet - heavy snow over our west/northern counties changing to ice - then possibly thunderstorms over parts of our southern and southeastern counties. Possibly even thunderstorm with ice and snow in some counties. Track of the low will be key for our region - of course. Will make for a difficult call. I was a little surprised the 12Z NAM and GFS were so far apart wrt 850 temps. The NAM pulls +5C into east-central IL during the storm...the GFS never gets higher than about -1C. Either way, if this forecast comes close to verifying we are going to get hammered, if not with snow then with ZR. I'll get a little more excited once the energy is better sampled, as someone mentioned earlier. NOAA was going to schedule one of their upper air flights out over the Pacific last I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 that's crazy high QPF amounts, were talking 15"+ on the Euro if that's all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If you are looking for a southern solution and need encouragement, check out the pinned thread on the main page. Not a lot of good info, but plenty of opinions that it's not going as far north as the NAM/GFS/Euro would imply. depending on the postion/orientaton/shape and how much of the PV wants to get involved will determine how far north this things comes. becasue modeling has a notriously difficult time pinpointing these aspects of the PV, i would expect variable solutions, esepcially at this range. now, the trend for the past 2 years has been increased confluence over the northeast and lakes. in time, as an event draws nearer, these aspects have increased. it will be interesting to see how it plays out, and while i certainly hope not for MBY, i woudlnt be the least bit surpised if this trended south some once it reaches the OV. i guess we are going to find out if things have really changed with that +NAO/+AO or if seasonal trends and persistence will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro still spits out 6-12" of snow (.45 qpf) for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> My thoughts are that I'm not going whole hog into any one solution until all the energy is sampled. Trend is important as I always say at this stage of the game. I think GFS/NAM/EURO are getting closer and closer on agreement... still some slight disagreement between the big three but the trend the Euro started appears to have been gradually picked up by the other two. Still watching how strong the models say that high coming down is going to be, and that pool of cold air over NE Canada and what type of blocking or clearing out of the way it does. I still cannot believe the QPF totals from the Euro, seem awfully high and will still use my standard of cutting by a third or so. The GFS, for instance, spits out around 0.80" of water here while the Euro spits out 1.50" so I'll side with the GFS on that one. Still believe though someone will end up with 12-18" potentially, esp. with thundersnow potential in the Southern part of the heavy snow band. That is what I am looking at, the QPF totals, while I would love them to verify, seem a bit high to me. Nonetheless, going from 1.95" to 1.35" still yields one heck of a snow fall around here. 1.95" at let's say, 12:1 rations yields over 20" of snow... even cutting the amount by 1/3 still gives us near 16".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 shhhh the board will go into a frenzy and another one at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The euro shows YYZ getting 1.08 qpf how much inches would that be for snow? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That is what I am looking at, the QPF totals, while I would love them to verify, seem a bit high to me. Nonetheless, going from 1.95" to 1.35" still yields one heck of a snow fall around here. 1.95" at let's say, 12:1 rations yields over 20" of snow... even cutting the amount by 1/3 still gives us near 16".... I don't know if I would cut down the QPF totals on the EURO much at all. The NAM was gonna be just as high as the EURO in terms of QPF and the reason why the GFS was less with the QPF was because of the track and the fact it was a bit weaker. This thing has the potential to produce 20-24+ inches, easily. I think Chicago is in a sweet spot right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 and another one at day 10 May you please stop it? We're already speechless with our next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hear you loud and clear, OL.. Can't afford much se shift here and that's the only direction I think/fear this goes. Now if i was in SNE and hoping for a lil NW loving it always seems to come. Well naso much last winter in the huge MA storms thanks to the PV... I fear it bad where I'm at. Needs a nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The euro shows YYZ getting 1.08 qpf how much inches would that be for snow? Thanks 12" assuming a 12:1 ratio. That's a cosnervative ratio BTW with surface temps probably in the low/mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man I could stare at this all day long. The 84hr simulated precip from the 12z NAM. Really gives you an idea of how juicy this storm will be. Also looks like it's about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hear you loud and clear, OL.. Can't afford much se shift here and that's the only direction I think/fear this goes. Now if i was in SNE and hoping for a lil NW loving it always seems to come. Well naso much last winter in the huge MA storms thanks to the PV... I fear it bad where I'm at. Needs a nap. both you and i are riding the ragged edge MKE is a great barometer for snow back my way.....thats where i need snow to get to, in order to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone think there's a chance of a slight northwest shift, say even just 30 to 50 miles? That would be ideal, but it sounds like there's more wiggle room for this to go southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oooo that was post 777... Maybe I brought me some luck to my fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man I could stare at this all day long. The 84hr simulated precip from the 12z NAM. Really gives you an idea of how juicy this storm will be. Also looks like it's about to explode. about to explode? It's going nuclear already right there. Does anyone think there's a chance of a slight northwest shift, say even just 30 to 50 miles? That would be ideal, but it sounds like there's more wiggle room for this to go southeast. You can make arguments either way. I think there's a chance the initial development in the plains is being underdone and it's something that's hard to prog coming out of the mountains anyways. You might see shifts either way, hopefully nothing huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 both you and i are riding the ragged edge MKE is a great barometer for snow back my way.....thats where i need snow to get to, in order to have a chance. O brother.....lol.. I haven't been the snow magnet for biggies since the 08/09 winter.. But there really hasn't been many opportunities either.... Time to get some mojo back me thinks.. We can do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 about to explode? It's going nuclear already right there. I guess I should have said wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone think there's a chance of a slight northwest shift, say even just 30 to 50 miles? That would be ideal, but it sounds like there's more wiggle room for this to go southeast. i don't know about a shift NW but with the WAA snows before the main storm thats progged for MN/WI..i'll take that as MPX calling for up to 6" with that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 O brother.....lol.. I haven't been the snow magnet for biggies since the 08/09 winter.. But there really hasn't been many opportunities either.... Time to get some mojo back me thinks.. We can do this. yeah you better whenever these storms roll out of the southern plains, i just check the forecast for MKE.....if there's no advisory/warning up, i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am having trouble digesting all of this. Part of me wants to explode in excitement and the other part says don't you dare Bo. This certainly has blizz of '78 potential with re: to the expanse and potential amounts of the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah you better whenever these storms roll out of the southern plains, i just check the forecast for MKE.....if there's no advisory/warning up, i Well I'm sure MKE AFD will give us some weenie fodder at least to read.. Feel kinna dumb saying this but I sure am excited to see if the NAM can keep its ramped up storm going.. For some odd reason I'm feeling that model for this one and it would be nice to have something else on my side if it indeed ends up in fantasy land like the Euro. See ya guys a little later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IND going with the mixed route.. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MORE OR LESS ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED AS DEEP TROUGHING SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THINGS LOOK DRY INTO MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THINK THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BACK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT THOSE TIMES. EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONABLE AS THERE ARE RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE FRONT...THINK MIXED PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE TO COVER THIS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF TO POTENTIALLY CAUSE PROBLEMS. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK OK...BUT THE LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM. WILL NUDGE UP THE LOWS AS A RESULT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/... ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A RATHER STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST. LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS REGARDING INTENSITY AND TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEM...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MAY SEE A MORE DEFINITIVE SOLUTION BY THE 301200Z RUNS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER AIR NETWORK BY THAT TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HEAVY QPF PRODUCER GIVEN ITS SURFACE ORIGINS IN THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. AT THIS TIME...FEEL BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A TREND TOWARDS ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES COOL WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA. WILL GO DRY FROM THURSDAY ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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