Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Certainly heavily suggested by the D10 Euro - it's like we get a last hurrah on this pattern next week, then we get a pack obliterator going - sort of alla '95-'96 ish... But that year the cold returned and we finished strong... Anyway, the AO has a mean in the +3 SD range nearing 14 days from now( one member goes to +6!). In tandem, the NAO is forecast to rise to +1 and then some, with the PNA neutralized or negative... That's a prettys strong suggestion for a major pattern evolution, probably toward an early spring should that prevail. The thing is, ...if it did, it is still early enough in cold season that we could recoupe the end of Feb through March. BUT, for me, the ertainment runs out if we lose this snow pack - my Met buddies and I are into the chaos thing these days to see if the Nat G needs to be called in.... We need 4 5 or 6 on the weekend then a 20+ monster next week with connective cold before that though. haha. The solar min having a strong correlation on -AO could be a corrective factor somehow, too - I agree.....aside from just chasing records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I agree.....aside from just chasing records. Correction vector equal roof rake order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't understand why everyone is so against the idea that a possible warmup in the week 2 and beyond time frame is possible. The most vaunted end to end winter in my memory was 1993-94. Yet, in the first couple of days of February, there was a 2-3 day spectacular thaw. The pattern reloaded and the snowpack rebuild. This winter may go end to end but that would be extremely unusual and in my 64 prior winters, I don't think it's ever happened other than 1960-61 which did lift out right after the 2/4/61 KU and winter was over. That is not out of the realm of possibility but this one seems to be morphing into a more 1993-94 esque sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Correction vector equal roof rake order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't understand why everyone is so against the idea that a possible warmup in the week 2 and beyond time frame is possible. The most vaunted end to end winter in my memory was 1993-94. Yet, in the first couple of days of February, there was a 2-3 day spectacular thaw. The pattern reloaded and the snowpack rebuild. This winter may go end to end but that would be extremely unusual and in my 64 prior winters, I don't think it's ever happened other than 1960-61 which did lift out right after the 2/4/61 KU and winter was over. That is not out of the realm of possibility but this one seems to be morphing into a more 1993-94 esque sequence. Not against the idea but hard to go against the hot hand of the GFS Ens and solid EPO numbers as well as what Sammy boy outlined thrown against a backdrop of a stratwarming event, seasonal warmups for sure, torch think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That would be yet another event where nearly everyone from RDU to PWM gets more snow than CAR. Weenies up there must be about ready to kick over the chair. Vim Toot is tying his tug anchors to his ankles somewhere on the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't see anything wrong with the idea of a thaw around the first week of Feb, I just don't know if it will happen. There are signs it might be mild for a few days, but I don't see a mega thaw yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re the warmup guys - gee wiz! I wasn't forecasting that - don't be so defensive. No one is threatening you haha. Look, I'm not making it up. Kevin asks what warmth is Tippy talking about - first of all, Tippy sounds gay. John is fine. The alias is for fun. Anyway, the "warmup" implications is derived from this: You may not like it, but there is nothing I can do about that. Those vectors in those teleconnector progs above are unanimously indicating a break in the cold pattern - I did not make them up. They do not represent my "feelings" in the matter, nor my "desired" weather implications. Whether it comes to fruition or not, I have no idea - but please don't blame the messenger. Also, you can pick and chose what product to use, and you run risk using those that tend to always appease what it is you are looking for - perhaps as a native product bias. But you would be dilluting your self if that were the case. But I don't know what you guys are individually using... One thing I will say is that I have seen the AO and NAO progged to rise at least 2 other times over the last 45 days only to have them fail to do so. That may or may not have some physical causality related to the ongoing solar minimum, which linearly has been shown to correlate strongly with negative polarfield indices as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not against the idea but hard to go against the hot hand of the GFS Ens and solid EPO numbers as well as what Sammy boy outlined thrown against a backdrop of a stratwarming event, seasonal warmups for sure, torch think not. I think it depends on your definition of torch. We'll be on tenuous ground to keep the cold with positive AO/NAO but those forecasts have busted this year and EPO has helped. It would not surprise me to see a few days of 50+ but I'm certainly not forecasting at this point. It's just the fact that the rubber band tends to break every 45 days and we're nearing that limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Right between ACK and the BM at 162hr. It's a contendah. We'll have to see how the confluence trends with time. Snow is like crack and I want more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Right between ACK and the BM at 162hr. It's a contendah. We'll have to see how the confluence trends with time. Snow is like crack and I want more. LOL, it is. I'm having more fun watching people try to figure out where to put the snow around here. It's pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOL, it is. I'm having more fun watching people try to figure out where to put the snow around here. It's pretty incredible. Maybe is we dump enough of it in the Atlantic we can stop the Gulf Stream conveyor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 No defensive posture Tip, opposite thinking, all makes a good convo, National Guard was used today in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Right between ACK and the BM at 162hr. It's a contendah. We'll have to see how the confluence trends with time. Snow is like crack and I want more. I could be a Mexican drug lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Right between ACK and the BM at 162hr. It's a contendah. We'll have to see how the confluence trends with time. Snow is like crack and I want more. And the 18z GFS is suppressed a bit. Good position to be in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Maybe is we dump enough of it in the Atlantic we can stop the Gulf Stream conveyor? I thought we already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Vim Toot is tying his tug anchors to his ankles somewhere on the Hudson. I think he has some sort of quantum physics hangover...attempt to take the letters of his name and rearrange them. See what you come up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Speaking of snow. I shoveled meticulously but found the snow pushed back right where I had removed it. I went to work po'd. I can't throw the snow high enough so I wait and throw it into the street late at night when no one is looking. Crazy....wonderfully crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think he has some sort of quantum physics hangover...attempt to take the letters of his name and rearrange them. See what you come up with Is Vim Toot the formerly known Aroostook Sailor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re the warmup guys - gee wiz! I wasn't forecasting that - don't be so defensive. No one is threatening you haha. Look, I'm not making it up. Kevin asks what warmth is Tippy talking about - first of all, Tippy sounds gay. John is fine. The alias is for fun. Anyway, the "warmup" implications is derived from this: You may not like it, but there is nothing I can do about that. Those vectors in those teleconnector progs above are unanimously indicating a break in the cold pattern - I did not make them up. They do not represent my "feelings" in the matter, nor my "desired" weather implications. Whether it comes to fruition or not, I have no idea - but please don't blame the messenger. Also, you can pick and chose what product to use, and you run risk using those that tend to always appease what it is you are looking for - perhaps as a native product bias. But you would be dilluting your self if that were the case. But I don't know what you guys are individually using... One thing I will say is that I have seen the AO and NAO progged to rise at least 2 other times over the last 45 days only to have them fail to do so. That may or may not have some physical causality related to the ongoing solar minimum, which linearly has been shown to correlate strongly with negative polarfield indices as we know. not that there is anything wrong with that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 not that there is anything wrong with that ... Hm, in that context, I didn't think gay referenced homosexuality, but more at silly in modern vernacular. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Right between ACK and the BM at 162hr. It's a contendah. We'll have to see how the confluence trends with time. Snow is like crack and I want more. we really should all go in on a crack house/ snow house in the snowiest place we can find. Just hard core snow crack weenies sittin around all day with vacant looks in our eyes, laptops of all the models running, old videos of storms, walls plastered with maps from 60-61, Feb 69, 78, 93-94, 96, etc... Every once in a while Pete skis by, stops in, takes a hit from the pipe and back on the trails. We could have the "Ray Room" which would be padded of course, and the MPM room where we could go to worry. The Will room would just be a looping tape of him describing the details of every single snow storm over 4 inches in Worcester since about 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOL, it is. I'm having more fun watching people try to figure out where to put the snow around here. It's pretty incredible. Yeah its crazy out plowing today I could not help but think if somthing rolls down the line next week with some punch to it, I am gona have to start thinking outside the box with where I put some of this snow in some peoples driveways just not alot of space left. Either way it has been an impressive stretch the hopefully it rolls right along and continues to produce. On a side note not much in the way of coastal flooding here just some minor splash over in the usual spots, but boy the winds were impressive for a time last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hm, in that context, I didn't think gay referenced homosexuality, but more at silly in modern vernacular. Interesting. Yes my nieces say "Oh that's Gay!" all the time. I say "when something is gay is that good?" they say "well no". I say "So you are saying Gay is not good?" They say "Well no, uh, not that...." I make a stern look, roll my eyes, and take them shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 we really should all go in on a crack house/ snow house in the snowiest place we can find. Just hard core snow crack weenies sittin around all day with vacant looks in our eyes, laptops of all the models running, old videos of storms, walls plastered with maps from 60-61, Feb 69, 78, 93-94, 96, etc... Every once in a while Pete skis by, stops in, takes a hit from the pipe and back on the trails. We could have the "Ray Room" which would be padded of course, and the MPM room where we could go to worry. The Will room would just be a looping tape of him describing the details of every single snow storm over 4 inches in Worcester since about 1978. Lol The Weenie Museum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Is Vim Toot the formerly known Aroostook Sailor? I just know him as Atomic Vomit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Lol The Weenie Museum The Kevin room would just be filled with weenies of all size and shape. What would be in the Ginx room? Definitely loud classic rock n roll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 we really should all go in on a crack house/ snow house in the snowiest place we can find. Just hard core snow crack weenies sittin around all day with vacant looks in our eyes, laptops of all the models running, old videos of storms, walls plastered with maps from 60-61, Feb 69, 78, 93-94, 96, etc... Every once in a while Pete skis by, stops in, takes a hit from the pipe and back on the trails. We could have the "Ray Room" which would be padded of course, and the MPM room where we could go to worry. The Will room would just be a looping tape of him describing the details of every single snow storm over 4 inches in Worcester since about 1978. This reminds me of a hole-in-the-wall museum in Prague where there really is such a room as you describe for Will. It's the "Museum of Communism", and among a lot of old Cold War cool memorabilia, it has a room devoted to anti Soviet uprisings, where an endlessly looping film describes the events of '68, '89......well, endlessly. Cool place to spend an off-beat few hours if you ever go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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