Epic winter signal continues to beam

[Baroclinic Zone]

euro has a nice snow event middle of next week.

GFS and Euro seem to have the same general idea.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z GGEM does a major phase job and rides the SLP up into the GL. Lot's of moving pieces with this upcoming potential. Another wait till Saturday/Sunday deal to get a better feel.

Saturday clipper does not look too bad on the GGEM either. s/w shoots under SNE so could bring some goods.

That is also classic GGEM bias incarnate for phase scenarios - it typically drills/bullies lows and vortmaxes well west of theoretical physics beyond day 4. If you look at the mid level panels the vort max and s/w structure just conveniently disappears up there in the U.P. of Michigan -

Anyway, as mentioned earlier in this thread the ECM is arriving and is indeed reconstructing the storm potential along the SE U.S. coast after having lost the entity altogether for the one run.

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS and Euro seem to have the same general idea.

yeah given the time frame they are pretty similar.

[Tropopause_Fold]

2-4 for the GTG looking likely

hope not...that'll make the drive a bit of an a*s pain

[BDR]

DGEX is on board too.

[Ginx snewx]

hope so...I would like a bit of an a*s pain see you there

Funky

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, that torch you were talking about a couple of weeks out spooked me, John.....lol

There wasn't an end in sight.....now there maybe.

[Hildy]

Posted a very cool picture

Thank you very much for this--even though I understand very little of the language of meteorology, this was quite helpful in that it's a very cool visual that helped me get the general idea. Plus, the BOOM is very illustrative.

[Ginx snewx]

Man, that torch you were talking about a couple of weeks out spooked me, John.....lol

There wasn't an end in sight.....now there maybe.

Irony upon irony, GFS Ens say what warmup. The AO is so strong and cold it has an expansive lower height field, we stay cold and stormy, go figure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, that torch you were talking about a couple of weeks out spooked me, John.....lol

There wasn't an end in sight.....now there maybe.

Certainly heavily suggested by the D10 Euro - it's like we get a last hurrah on this pattern next week, then we get a pack obliterator going - sort of alla '95-'96 ish... But that year the cold returned and we finished strong...

Anyway, the AO has a mean in the +3 SD range nearing 14 days from now( one member goes to +6!). In tandem, the NAO is forecast to rise to +1 and then some, with the PNA neutralized or negative... That's a prettys strong suggestion for a major pattern evolution, probably toward an early spring should that prevail. The thing is, ...if it did, it is still early enough in cold season that we could recoupe the end of Feb through March. BUT, for me, the ertainment runs out if we lose this snow pack - my Met buddies and I are into the chaos thing these days to see if the Nat G needs to be called in.... We need 4 5 or 6 on the weekend then a 20+ monster next week with connective cold before that though. haha.

The solar min having a strong correlation on -AO could be a corrective factor somehow, too -

[Typhoon Tip]

Irony upon irony, GFS Ens say what warmup. The AO is so strong and cold it has an expansive lower height field, we stay cold and stormy, go figure.

What? Based on what -

The CPC (anyway) has every member above 0.0 SD by the middle of week 2.

[SJonesWX]

so can we talk about the clipper this weekend?

[snowNH]

New srefs show the storm potential for next Wed/ Thursday as well... it has precip developing in the same exact spot as last storm...

I'm feeling another monster.. nothing is slowing down this pattern

[CoastalWx]

Yep, that basically illustrates what I was saying.

[CoastalWx]

PNA does drop,but like I said..look where the ridging is. I'm just using this panel as an example, so God only knows if it's right, but it still drives the cold into the US.

[Ginx snewx]

What? Based on what -

The CPC (anyway) has every member above 0.0 SD by the middle of week 2.

See GFS ENS overwhelming PV, see Scooters post.

[Damage In Tolland]

What warmth is Tippy talking about? Nothing is signalling that at all. That a phail

[Ginx snewx]

Certainly heavily suggested by the D10 Euro - it's like we get a last hurrah on this pattern next week, then we get a pack obliterator going - sort of alla '95-'96 ish... But that year the cold returned and we finished strong...

Anyway, the AO has a mean in the +3 SD range nearing 14 days from now( one member goes to +6!). In tandem, the NAO is forecast to rise to +1 and then some, with the PNA neutralized or negative... That's a prettys strong suggestion for a major pattern evolution, probably toward an early spring should that prevail. The thing is, ...if it did, it is still early enough in cold season that we could recoupe the end of Feb through March. BUT, for me, the ertainment runs out if we lose this snow pack - my Met buddies and I are into the chaos thing these days to see if the Nat G needs to be called in.... We need 4 5 or 6 on the weekend then a 20+ monster next week with connective cold before that though. haha.

The solar min having a strong correlation on -AO could be a corrective factor somehow, too -

D10 Euro has had a warmup every couple of days , not buying it GFS Ens have been superb for the overall 5 H setup.this winter, put the rope down

[CoastalWx]

The thing that is holding on to the cold is the epo. If that goes positive (or negative depending on CPC version of values), than it would be a problem. Hopefully, it continues to hold on strong.

[Ginx snewx]

The thing that is holding on to the cold is the epo. If that goes positive (or negative depending on CPC version of values), than it would be a problem. Hopefully, it continues to hold on strong.

[Ginx snewx]

[Typhoon Tip]

A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF LT SNOW ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MID LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC ONSHORE LOW WILL BREAK OUT RAIN ACROSS TX

AND LA AND WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO MID WEEK.

SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST SUNDAY

WILL MOVE EASTWARD EITHER COMING OUT BODILY AS PER CMC AND UKMET

INDUCING A STRONG LOWER MS VALLEY LOW OR COME OUT SHEARED LEAVING

BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE TROF AXIS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS

LATTER SOLUTION PREFERRED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW

CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WED.

THIS SOLUTION HAS A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TUES

TO THURSDAY ACROSS NR TX TO OK AND UP THE CENTRAL MS AND OH

VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLC REGIONS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST WITH THE

ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN SOUTH.

ROSENSTEIN

It's is "possible" though not currently depicted that it deepens more upon meeting the baroclinicity in the vicinity of LI, which would clip SE-E zones with 3-4".

[Organizing Low]

for the record, ysterdays event had a neutral AO and only slightly neg NAO east-based as per CPC it appears.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles have something like the op wrt day 6 system. Nice little low scooting south of sne.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensembles have something like the op wrt day 6 system. Nice little low scooting south of sne.

This winter is going to make Men out of some boys,women out of some girls, kids ten years old today posting in 2069, little Blizzes telling about the winter of their youth, posting pics of them in a snowsuit standing next to Dads enormous driveway pile.

[OKpowdah]

Certainly heavily suggested by the D10 Euro - it's like we get a last hurrah on this pattern next week, then we get a pack obliterator going - sort of alla '95-'96 ish... But that year the cold returned and we finished strong...

Anyway, the AO has a mean in the +3 SD range nearing 14 days from now( one member goes to +6!). In tandem, the NAO is forecast to rise to +1 and then some, with the PNA neutralized or negative... That's a prettys strong suggestion for a major pattern evolution, probably toward an early spring should that prevail. The thing is, ...if it did, it is still early enough in cold season that we could recoupe the end of Feb through March. BUT, for me, the ertainment runs out if we lose this snow pack - my Met buddies and I are into the chaos thing these days to see if the Nat G needs to be called in.... We need 4 5 or 6 on the weekend then a 20+ monster next week with connective cold before that though. haha.

The solar min having a strong correlation on -AO could be a corrective factor somehow, too -

Okay, see a commect like that by me would have had me in the stockade. I don't know if anyone saw, but my cousin went crazy on me on facebook on a status I wrote. It was something like "here's to drastic region crippling, bread-and-milk-aisle-clearing changes from the NCEP models". He basically called my love of winter storms inhumane.

For the record, I of course wish for as little harm to life and property as possible... And I am also completely supportive of the NG being invited by mother nature up into New England for a few days.

[OKpowdah]

This looks like one of those cases where, dependent on ridging in the north Pacific, the positive NAO could in fact be quite a cold scenario for the northern tier. I haven't taken much of a look at the pattern beyond day 7 yet, but I see that the MJO wave is projected to collapse shortly and reignite near Indonesia over the next week or so. Should this trigger a E Asia mt torque event, we could see the more negative EPO progs verifiy. That in combination with a +NAO yields cross polar flow into the western hemisphere. This could be a very cold period for much of Canada, while we might have a few days a bit above normal before a negative AO re-emerges by the third week of February and sends the north pole equatorward.

So first of all I could see a few SWF events that are well placed for moderate snowfall across New England. Given UL confluence south of the +NAO upper low, a period of moderate SE ridging and plenty of cold up north to create a tight temperature gradient right over the region, might see an overperformer or two.

Second, significant Archambault storm late February that rides the leading edge of a late season arctic outbreak that precedes a very cold and snowy beginning to March

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro ensembles have something like the op wrt day 6 system. Nice little low scooting south of sne.

Just like last night

[tamarack]

DGEX is on board too.

That would be yet another event where nearly everyone from RDU to PWM gets more snow than CAR. Weenies up there must be about ready to kick over the chair.

[Ginx snewx]

This looks like one of those cases where, dependent on ridging in the north Pacific, the positive NAO could in fact be quite a cold scenario for the northern tier. I haven't taken much of a look at the pattern beyond day 7 yet, but I see that the MJO wave is projected to collapse shortly and reignite near Indonesia over the next week or so. Should this trigger a E Asia mt torque event, we could see the more negative EPO progs verifiy. That in combination with a +NAO yields cross polar flow into the western hemisphere. This could be a very cold period for much of Canada, while we might have a few days a bit above normal before a negative AO re-emerges by the third week of February and sends the north pole equatorward.

So first of all I could see a few SWF events that are well placed for moderate snowfall across New England. Given UL confluence south of the +NAO upper low, a period of moderate SE ridging and plenty of cold up north to create a tight temperature gradient right over the region, might see an overperformer or two.

Second, significant Archambault storm late February that rides the leading edge of a late season arctic outbreak that precedes a very cold and snowy beginning to March

Good job Sam, regarding the last, Yep and then the Grand Finale third week in March, a Sam special.